Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Here's hoping you waited for my reply?
Ah, so finally some real, however badly dated (June 2020) and at first swipe, marginally useful support. If you were an auditee of mine, I'd just STOP my review here and kindly ask you to, you know, try again…
So to try to get some, you know, FACTS, about what one poster is incessantly claiming about prior performance on this thread,
I phoned Marshfield today.
Here's what a, LT, experienced Marshfield representative told me TODAY, quoting her pretty mu…
@Graust:
Thanks, man, that helps my case.
Despite all that, MRFOX's outperformance of the S&P is nowhere near the outperformance (that was reported here, that I did not verify) of the Marshfield Equity Composite period.
So the performance…
@stillers - look up performance of Marshfield equity composite...Mr Niemszewski was managing the fund back in late 89' (do your own homework, not like I spent 10 hours researching this)...absolutely blows away SP500...from 12/89 thru 6/2020 composit…
Positive vibes on this fund is for a couple reasons. Long term record going back 30 years with same strat is outstanding vs sp500. Up/ downside not even close. Very experienced fund MGMT, not just one star manager. Doesn't hold any of the glamour…
@BaluBalu
SCV AUERX has been on our watch list for about a year. Probably shoulda bought it back then. The ER has always been a bit of a turnoff for us but the performance, like you said, has been very good for the past 5 years.
Considering it…
All major indexes are UP currently:
DJIA: 1.10%
S&P: 1.12%
NASDAQ: 1.28%
RUT: 1.23%
Yeah, maybe best to wait at least for more than one month's CPI data points and one more day until the end of the week before going hyperbolic, eh?
EDIT: …
Nice post @BaluBalu and I agree.
I would just add, a cursory look at the two shows a variance in ERs, with very similar holdings/weightings and (it follows) very similar performance.
Charlie Bilello called it a reversal day. X/Twitter LINK
"Today was one of the wildest days in markets you will ever see. A complete reversal of all of the major secular trends in recent years.
============================
Not many words there but…
Thanks @BaluBalu
Tying back to @Derf's OP, whatever Wednesday's market action was all about more than compensated us for today's 0.8% loss. Nice portfolio test today and it did better than we were expecting. More broadly, we're still UP 2.2% MTD, …
@Charles
Thank you very much for your explanation and detail.
I would just add this as further explanation for my prior post and questions.
Maybe to people in the industry, and maybe to avid ETF investors, of which I am neither, "Cathie was th…
Cathie was the flavor for seven years ... and then 2022 came.
Huh? Seven years? Until 2022?
You got me there.
ARKK's heyday was all of 2020 to very early 2021.
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/ARKK?qsearchterm=arkk
(Set graph to "ALL.")
After…
Given the magnitude of the morning moves in the respective indexes and sectors, I tuned into some discussions about today's action.
Seeming consensus: Wait and see. This move could run this direction for a month or two, but the key questions po…
For whatever (in hindsight, great) reason(s) we decided to NOT invest in any of her funds.
Back in her (albeit brief) glory days, I found her interviews intriguing and thought of her as borderline eccentric. Now she's a laugh a minute to me.
Hard…
Interesting question.
CPI/PPI release dates have been market movers all year, but usually not so much until their actual release dates and the aftermath, and usually to the benefit of LCG, Tech and MAG7, NOT the RUT.
If it was a run up yesterd…
Here's The Barron's Daily take on her letter to investors:
Cathie Wood, the architect behind the ARK fund, has a delicate task in her latest letter to investors. The fund came to prominence with big gains in 2020 when the broader market was tanking…
...
When I started my taxable position in SMH back in February (thanks again @Stillers) I started small. The way it grows, it won't stay small long. And if there is one of those 30-35% down-drafts in the future, I won't be too bummed out to double …
...
How long can Tech lead?
Historically, quite a while, e.g., see 2017-2020:
https://novelinvestor.com/sector-performance/
And, looking forward, who knows?:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-nvidia-could-be-headed-for-a-seismic-moment-another-3-…
...
It's down to FDSVX or PRWAX. Tip of the cap to @stillers for drawing my attention to funds I had missed.
Thanks man! We've built what we regard as the best portfolio we've ever had in our 40+ years of doing this. FDSVX and PRWAX are core holdi…
Tough choice for us between FDSVX and FBGRX but settled on the former. PRWAX is one of the most underrated LCG funds. We would own any of them over AMAGX.
Other thoughts:
Not sure of your situation, but if this is new money, might not be the be…
"Simplification" of the IRA continues. Why the scare quotes? Every time I make progress on the equity side there's some new bond fund popping up. Cleaning up that mess should be next summer's problem.
Today I sold three different tech funds, TDV, F…
OP,
As I mentioned, ...
Great attempt at pivoting from the cold hard facts of long-term historical performance.
And, got it.
Simply ignore the so called "supercycle" in stocks from 1980-2000 and concentrate solely on gold's outperformance of…
Despite the notion of a "false sense of security" in the US markets, the S&P is UP 8.7% and NASDAQ is UP 14.1% since the date of the OP. Here's hoping no forum participants acted inappropriately on that notion!
@Edmond: "Go to portfoliovizualizer.com. Run a asset comparison from 2000-current. Gold has actually outperformed the S&P."
Ugh, well that's a great place to start your (cherry-picked) comparison period, right at the start of "The Lost Decade" …
Do you hold gold mutual funds in your portfolio?
Not currently. At one we time owned PRPFX. We also previously traded GLD and GDX. There are just so many more reliable and less volatile ways to make money.
EDIT: We owned them back when we tr…
Um, you missed my point. But worse, you seem to have twisted what I said.
"6% in six months would, in any other year, be considered an excellent performance. It is only in comparison to NVDA or QQQ that OAKMX looks bad."
I DID NOT compare value s…
Waiting for the period when Value beats Growth is akin to waiting for the next correction or bear market.
Think Peter Lynch.
NOTE: Don't be fooled by the performance of some LCV funds this year. Under the hoods of many of them that have perfor…
@Derf
Can you summarize the Schwab offer brackets? I’d be interested to see if my Schwab rep would match even though I didn’t get the email. Thx.
https://www.schwab.com/investor_reward
Here's how Schwab Investor Reward Plus works.
Make a qualifyin…
Sold shares of two VG index funds yesterday and today to bring Market Portfolio stock allocation down to low end of range. Parking latest proceeds in VMRXX paying 5.29%. Swung for the fences in 1st half of 2024 and did better than projected. Simpl…
@BaluBalu
NEAGX was an Explore fund for us that never made it over to the Core side. It is loaded with volatile SC technology and we were looking for a simple way to reduce overall Market Portfolio tech exposure and volatility. So yeah, pretty much…
@BaluBalu
I provided as much detail as I ever have/intend to provide online about our portfolio at this thread:
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/177280/#Comment_177280
Here's an update to our Market Portfolio (MP) after…
Further reduced stock exposure today by about another 10%, while slightly reducing Tech and MAG7 allocations. Reduced FSELX allocation by about 1/3. SOLD entire position in NEAGX. Parking all proceeds in FZDXX for the time being. Now down to 11 OE…
There are so many great domestic LCG funds. EGFIX is not one of them. It has earned its M* 2* rating. Its 1% ER alone, especially for an Inst share class, is enough to Just Say No to it.
Take a look at any/all of FCNTX, FDSVX, AMAGX, PRWAX. I'd…
Reduced stock exposure by ~10% and bonds by ~half via sales this week of our two allocation funds. Some proceeds were moved over to CD ladder while the rest were parked in FZDXX for future re-deployment. Just booking some profits and trying to avoi…
@stillers. Perhaps another universe is oddly phrased, but my financial life would be entirely different if I had a pension check roll in every month. Many decisions would be looked at differently.
Oh, now I get it!
And agreed, our collective …
Nice chart in this article:
https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/07/success/pensions-retirement-savings-explained/index.html
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/retirement/06/demiseofdbplan.asp#:~:text=Key Takeaways,to manage than pension plans.
https://…
@stillers,
While I am not directly invested in the AI theme, I would appreciate you telling us when you think it may be time to get off the semi-conductor or Nvidia trade train (or when you sell). I know from your posts that you are directly inves…
Thanks for posting. I have always thought that retired folks with pensions lived in another universe compared to the rest of us. I wonder if most pension recipients pay much attention to what is going on behind the scenes at their fund?
Me and the…
In think what @baseball_fan is asking is if there is a potential fraud involved in Nvidia's revenue recognition? I would venture to guess there is probably some creativity involved (let us say, no more than 5% of the revenue) but within the bounds …
