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Thanks @Ted.
El-Erian has been on the "policy stimulus takeover from central bank stimulus" kick for at least 6 years. I don't think he's wrong.
As for the exchange below, I would add preferred stock as a relatively illiquid market that could suf…
Thanks Ted. This new inverse ETF makes me chuckle.
While it's true that XRT is the most shorted ETF, it's also true that high short interest in an ETF is usually a predictor of OUTperformance, not UNDERperformance, at least with ETFs that are dece…
Also NTF at E*TRADE with the same $100 minimum, institutional class not available, which I only checked because sometimes the minimum is a lot lower than published and I'd rather pay a transaction fee than the 12b-1.
@LLJB thanks again for letting u…
Thanks @hank!
What a thrill ride for long suffering Houston baseball fans. School is closed tomorrow across town, and there will be a parade downtown. :-)
Hi @Roy
Interesting question.
As a stock over the last 20 years, TROW has generally performed well in bull markets and poorly in bear markets. I believe this to be an investor sentiment phenomenon as opposed to a passive investing issue.
TRO…
Good points, Hank.
Dalio believes that while America is currently leading the world in a tightening phase, the next central bank short term debt cycle will be one of easing in response to a new market correction or recession. He further believes t…
Thanks Ted.
USNWR also rates mutual funds. You have to be careful with them. For example, they rank the Deutsche Global Macro fund as the top multialternative fund. And if you look at that fund, they have some nice returns on a 3- and 5-year bas…
@PBKCM: Has your fund ever held assets other than stocks?
Good observation & question, @BenWP.
The answer is "yes." Our process is described at our website and the linked materials there:
http://kernscapital.com/kcm-macro-trends-fund/
Wow @Roy - you got an early start! Let me take a wild guess - did you invest in Fidelity Magellan?
I don't mean to be evasive and I wish I could go into more detail, but compliance asks that I refer all questions about the fund to our website (whi…
Thanks for posting, Ted. This is a fascinating topic, and one that I've spent a lot of time pondering.
Faber & Gray are smart guys. But they only told half the story. Buffett recognized that paying dividends robs the investor of the magic …
@PBKCM: Given what Old_Skeet said above about unrealized gains and high turnover of your fund, do you have any idea what you'll be paying out in distributions for 2017? Thanks.
Hi @BenWP. We expect to make a distribution in mid-December. I'll upda…
Hi @hank
While my focus is strategy as opposed to distribution, I have seen our expense ratio fall as our AUM has risen. In that sense, a rising tide lifts all boats.
Parker
We are NTF and Schwab, Fidelity, TD etc.
By the way, it costs a ton of money to get on those platforms. The majors want 40 bps for shelf space on the NTF platforms. That eats the whole 12b1 and then some. And they want 10 bps for shelf space on…
@PBKCM If I understand correctly, which I may not, your fund uses technical analysis to decide risk on / risk off, then, as of last year (maybe due to your arrival?), quantitative analysis to choose what to invest in. Held up very well in 2008-2009 …
Well, so much for Game 1. Hank - I don't know much about Verlander's history, but I'm pulling for him.
Thanks for the kind words, Old_Skeet and LLJB.
And thanks for the feedback JoJo26, would like to explore why you feel that way.
MikeM2 - you…
Thanks, all.
I've sent several of you messages with the link to the website on the fund. That's all I'm allowed to do re: the fund itself. If anyone else wants the link, just let me know.
Otherwise, I am happy to entertain industry questions. O…
Hi rforno,
Given the low level of inflation combined with strong earnings and GDP growth, it looks closer to fairly valued to us. It won't be hysterically overpriced until the doubters capitulate and hysteria appears. We aren't there yet.
That's…
Thanks Ted.
When commentators write that "it is universally acknowledged that passive is better than active" then you know we are approaching a period where the exact opposite will be true.
Good question, Ted.
Hedge funds can provide diversification to an institution or family office portfolio of long stocks and bonds. Mixing an uncorrelated asset stream into a portfolio can help "straigthen out the line."
Some in the public have…
Eventually, the cost of missing the market boom will be so high that the holdouts will capitulate and buy in.
We all know what happens next. But we aren't there yet.
On one hand, investors are seeking shelter from what they perceive as expensive equity markets.
Thoughtful post, Hank.
On the point above, I'm not sure that's the only explanation. As Americans (and particularly its wealthy boomers) age (and liv…
Thanks, Ted. The yield curve inverted in early 2006, 18 months before the topping process began in the market. Historically, it's a leading indicator. I'm not sure why Blackrock is sounding the warning of a possible inverted yield curve.
Thanks Ted.
Sam Stovall wrote something similar for S&P. Add CPI to the S&P forward PE ratio (based on operating earnings), and the average over time is 20. Frothy is one std dev above. Bargain is one std dev below.
Right now, we are …
1962 was before my time, Ted!
White Sox played great in 2005. Jermaine Dye & friends were awesome. I believe they had the best record in the AL that year.
That Astros team won 89 games, finished 11 back of St Louis, and clawed their way to t…
Hi Ted.
Sorry for getting back to you so late. Busy morning then went to the Astros game!
I'm CIO of a Houston RIA. My partner and I manage a mutual fund.
You raise some important issues, LLJB.
There are over 28,000 mutual funds. Roughly 10,000 if you disregard share classes. Trying to pick which ones will outperform is mind-numbingly difficult. Compare stocks, where approximately 1700 stocks co…
Very interesting issue, David. Congrats.
On the Nifty 50 indexing issue, we have certainly considered the effects of indexing at our shop. Despite the growing number of smart beta products, over 80% of the AUM of all passive index funds remains…