Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Volatility has been a big part of my style since 2000. Since retirement in 2018 it's a huge part of style.
Volatility/Risk isn't that important for young accumulators but retirees who have enough money to sustain their lifestyle to death have the a…
As expected, investment services jobs will continue to be cut. IT eliminated many jobs in the past and it will continue to eliminate more middle and high salary jobs.
It's also a run to the bottom with fees too. Who can offer the same/more services …
Some slightly contrarian contextual takes here, of high-level interest perhaps:
https://humbledollar.com/2020/10/follow-the-fed/
Interesting article
1)Employment: has nothing to do with stocks. Disregard.
2+5)Inflation + Plan for higher inflation.:…
(link) The Fund was created to act as a solution for fixed income exposure in all market environments. It invests in an array of global fixed income sectors with ability to adjust sector allocations as necessary.
The fund’s experienced managers may …
VIX is one of my main criteria based on daily movements.
VIX has been elevated since early September, it finally broke above 30 and that's not a good sign.
I use other criteria relate only to my goals (low volatility and never lose more than 3% fr…
VIX closed over 30 means I got to sell some, so I sold 50% of my portfolio which was in IOFIX. If VIX goes back under 30 I will buy it again.
It's probably just a temporary spike but I have got very little to lose. I'm already at 15% for 2020 + on…
I think there is a breakdown in communication.
I didn't know 2 things:
1) that PV has Inflation adjusted box under the chart.
2) When you select Withdrawal fix Amount then another window open and you can select Inflation adjusted
So instead, I …
We don't know what will be in the next 30 years but I like to make predictions NOW since we are talking about retirement now.
My assumptions of 2.5% and why I used 7% are close to yours of 4.5% withdrawal and then using adjusted for inflation. Both…
You can see that my assumptions end results are pretty close to yours.
Remaining portfolio:...Mine=$876K...yours=$847K.
From this point it may get much harder not easier. FBNDX(bonds) past performance since 1998 was 5% annually, it's going to be ab…
I like simplicity. We never had CAPE > 30 and interest rates so low which isn't a good start from here.
For my portfolio sustainability I always add inflation. The last time CAPE was over 30 was in 01/1998. I'm trying to be fair and not start at…
Bengen doesn't make sense and why the rule should definitely be under 4% and not 5%.
From 1992 to 2005-6 inflation(link) was around 2.5-3%. In the last several years it's about 2%. When the long term performance of the SP500 was about 10%, Bengen…
@bilperk
1) Ballast - This is what most investors think
That's the first site(link) I found at Google:
Historically, when stock prices are rising and more people are buying to capitalize on that growth, bond prices have typically fallen on lower …
FD - So you know more about investing than the professionals quoted in Barron’s?
It's not about knowing more, it's about backing up a "new" concept with real numbers. The best teacher is the market.
I posted the following list several times:
1) …
msf, great explanation but this is what I have learned about bonds and bond funds
1) "A duration of five years means that you're "driving" at 5% per 1% rate change." that formula only works for treasuries but you can find it in so many articles. It…
Investment professionals come up with new terminology every several years and try to convince their clients they found a new and great investment ideas just to find years later the old ones still work and most times even better.
How many times did y…
It's all good, FD. PIMIX is still good for long term holders. I'm meeting my goals. That is what is important to me. Keep convincing yourself that getting 5% per year with low SD is the only game in town. I guess there's a reason people live in…
FD,
Bottom line is the FED funds rate does not result in longer term bond fund yields rising right away and in this case the changes up and down happened too fast. If you had cited increases in intermediate bond yields to make your point (whatever …
I don't see a lot of options for Joe the typical investor who like to hold several funds for years.
The main problem is bond funds. Index bond funds and even conservative managed funds such as VG funds will probably make 1.5-2% on average in the nex…
@bilperk
he cites FED funds rate, but his examples are all over the board intermediate bonds.
The whole point was to show that bonds have different categories and managed flexible funds can have several categories where the managers can make chang…
Interesting ideas and definitely unique but I don't agree with this article and here is why:
1) Most investors should just use a simple formula and be invested at all times according to their goals. It's easy and makes sense
The writer is so much o…
@WABAC
-European Banks - EUFN
-International Value (LC)
-Taiwan and India with EM space - EWT & EPI
-High Quality Cyclicals - Semiconductor - PSI
-Overweight global banks versus technology, and value versus growth, since both trades have histor…
Funny thing, I was pretty good at English grammar while taking tests :-)
After learning Spanish only one year compare to many years in English I wish the most common world language would be Spanish. It's easier to learn, speak and read.
Interestin…
We love to travel and have done it since the early 80". We did 2 months in the US, then 2 months in the Far East. Immigrated to the US and traveled again to 48 states in the next 15 years several weeks annually.
Since 2007 we traveled to Europe for…
Semi month observations:
Core bonds + Core plus bonds are flat for the month but 0.2% for one week.
HY Muni are down -0.2% for the month and flat for one week.
No Trad + Multi: up 0.3% for the month and flat for one week but these 2 categories have …
I just googled it and saw this example(link)
The arrival of the Internet and email ?make/?makes communication with family so much easier. The answer is makes (singular) because the subject is arrival
My OP :Why rising rates isn't that bad for bo…
Sorry about my English but please explain how do you pronounce the following 3 words differently.
COME, HOME, TOMB. I see the vowel O in all three but the sound is different. All I know that in Hebrew and Spanish (which I learn briefly) it's very …
Several funds I would hold longer term.
Stocks/allocation:
PRWCX has been my top moderate allocation for years and YTD did well. Great manager with insight.
VWINX/VWIAX-has been my top conservative allocation for years and YTD did well. Great long…
@LewisBraham
We are discussing beyond the article. The article is talking about long term and mention T/A + other non T/A reasons.
As I said before, you think T/A is dubious and you entitle to this opinion but I have been using it very successfull…
@Zolta, IOFIX min is only $100K at Schwab. I'm guessing your investments is at Fidelity. This is one of the reason I transferred most of my money to Schwab. Fidelity also have a million dollar min on Pimco Instit share funds too.
My technique is not…
Old_Joe, pay attention who posted about politics first. If you guys want to discuss politics please use the off-topic.
It's pretty clear see below
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/14/us/politics/coronavirus-trump-investors.html
Below is a chart of the SP500. When do I buy stocks (usually SP500 or QQQ)?
I look for at least 5-8% loss from the last top. Then I need to see:
1) MACD goes from higher negative to positive
2) Uptrend in price for several days
3) If price cro…
Lots of BS about me. How nice is to post trash without any proof.
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@davidrmoran:but it is true that FD1k should be a multimillionaire, philanthropist, and posting regularly for seekingalpha or similar
FD: I'm a multimillionaire but n…
Disgusting swamp goo.
I agree. I wasn't in that meeting but I sold most of my portfolio(all bond funds) at the end of 02/2020 documented (here).
But, the following (link) is also a disgusting swamp goo and we can call it Joe Quid pro quo.
https://inflationdata.com/articles/inflation-adjusted-prices/inflation-adjusted-housing-prices/
Advantages of Buying a House: (Number 1 is the most important)
1. A house is like a forced savings plan for people who normally aren’t in the habit of s…
https://medium.com/@ronaldviatori/technical-analysis-is-bullshit-b7ffce78425e
BS or not, I have been using T/A successfully for about 20 years. T/A is only one part of my system. I never held a losing fund too long and since retirement in 2018 I d…
All I did is presented Tom Bowley view. You may agree or not. Bowley is a technician and a pretty good one IMO. He is one of only several I like to read because of his short term views, after all, I'm trader. His long term is unique right now.
