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Sven
Lynn,
Thank you so much. I am planning on a 3-year ladder since I am a year away from retirement. Lots of spreadsheet work to calculate the income replacement needed. This ladder will create a steady income stream. So thank you for all your help.
I moved back to high quality bond funds this year. Some of which you covered in the SA article. For now, I will stay with agency bonds to the bond ladder. I will pick active managers for corporate bonds.
Sven
When you have time, please give "Siri" a try. That is a voice activated function of Apple products (Apple calls it their assistant) to help you with the things you need to find, know, or do every day. Just say "Hey Siri" or hold down the home butto…
In another case he has to settle out of court. The story goes that the defendant cannot find unbiased jurors to go to trial. He is not well liked even in his home town.
https://politico.com/news/2022/11/02/trump-settles-lawsuit-protesters-scuffle-…
I like to play around and eventually get it right. You can also learn from YouTube using the Safari browser and search for what you like to do. The Map app is really handy for helping you to navigate driving direction, especially in new locations …
Be patient with yourself and you will get a hang of it. The manual helps. Soon you will appreciate the touch screen instead of using a keyboard.
Try to learn one function at a time such as text messaging and making phone calls. Have fun with it …
@JD_co, if the Fed stays the course as they planned, the terminal rate will be 5.25 - 5.50% ! And that is just one scenario. The other scenario is recession hits in 2023, unemployment rises, price falls and labor cost eases, the Fed may pause and c…
In stress time, the asset of bond funds tends to go up since they are considered safe haven to the investors. They serve as the ballast to the declining stocks. So a 60/40 allocation would help many folks to navigate the trouble water, but not this …
The market conditions during GFC is quite different from today. The Fed was cutting rate and buying billions of bonds monthly (QE) and it is the opposite today. I invested in Bill Gross’s Pimco Total Return throughout GFC and the Tech Bubble and it…
Majority of bond funds are down 15%, and the Fed is far from done with raising rate. This also spills over into traditional balanced funds and they sustained double digit loss.
Bank loan funds have the least amount of loss, -3% YTD. That is helpi…
The CME report is very informative on the terminal rate of 5.25 - 5.50% !
Yields are getting quite attractive, yields near 4.5+% now. Potentially it will get over 5%+ and would make them competitive to stocks and bonds in coming years.
Agree, it does take conviction to commit a decent allocation.
There are now EM funds created that exclude China stocks. It would be interesting to track their performance relative to VWO.
By the way, last week I bought a 2-yr CD with call-protection (4.7%) from Morgan Stanley. CDs are getting more rewarding now. When they reach 5-6%, they become more attractive than stocks and bonds in coming years.
Also treasuries are catching u…
@yogibb, the 10 Year-3 Month Treasury Yield Spread is the difference between the 10 year treasury rate and the 3 month treasury rate. This spread is widely used as a gauge to study the yield curve. A 10 year-3 month treasury spread that approaches 0…
Like Lewis B pointed out, what is the risk premium in order invest in China ? If the earnings are being manipulated by the state, there is no true reported value. Majority of Chinese citizens invest in bonds and insurance products, not so much thei…
Not trying to change the topic. Treasury department sold $980 millions I bond before Oct 28th deadline. Imagine if there is NO investment limit and you can do transaction on your favorite brokerages.
He is still a sore loser who refuse to concede formally to Lula. He had his staff to make the announcement. Don’t expect him to a letter to Lula like Bush sr. did for Bill Clinton.
Since he has tight tie to the military, there was a possibility…
It is over. Bolsonaro made the right move and handed over the power to Lula.
https://msn.com/en-us/news/world/brazil-s-bolsonaro-vows-to-follow-constitution-orders-transition-to-lula/ar-AA13CPxu?cvid=f4afe2f502884a868d6b6cdac93735e9
Bolsonaro’s son was talking about the voting machines. Same stuff that Sydney Powell, Mike Lindell and Rudy Giuliani were pushing for. Don’t know what their court would request for a recount.
100% of the votes have been counted. Lula 50.9% and …
His son was making noise to cast doubt on the election integrity (sounds familiar) even before the voting closed. We have to keep watching as over 99% of the votes have been counted.
Bolsonaro was leading in the beginning and Lula surged in the …
Reuters reported Lula won! Look like Brazil election is based on who win the popular votes by over 50%. Lula won by a narrow margin, 50.8% versus 49.2%. Someone is smiling from above.
https://reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-votes-heated-bolson…
We may have to wait a bit unless Bolsonaro conceded right away. Remember, Bolsonaro has tight tie to the military. This could be a dangerous time and a test of their democratic electron process. Nevertheless, I am hopeful that the Brazilians have …
@Mona, you have good points. Stay with VEIPX since OIEIX is closed to new investors. Only VGRIX is open. On closer examination, VEIPX is now co-managed between Wellington and VG quant group. Think @msf brought this to our attention a year. Not ex…
Thanks for the link.
China is far from out of the wood. Wuhan is having another COVID outbreak. China lacks effective vaccines and implementation program that will continue to impact their economic growth. This draconian zero-tolerance policy doe…
It is good to have new managers on this show.
Since 2004, Clare Hart has been the lead manager for several JPMorgan mutual funds, Equity Income (A share, OEIIX) and US Value (A share, VGRIX). Quick review on their performance records indicate th…
Here is the background on Nicholas Borst of Seafarer, who @BenWP mentioned.
Nicholas joined Seafarer Capital Partners in 2018. He is Vice President and Director of China Research. Prior to joining Seafarer, Nicholas was a senior analyst at the Fe…
@crash, brokered CDs have many advantages over those offered at local banks. You get much better yields, many choices on different banks and duration. Or you can create your own ladder. But this May depends on your brokerages. Even Vanguard is pr…
If inflation stays elevated and above the CD yield, you are still losing unless you own IBond.
Still it is nowhere near as bad when the bond index fund this year, -16% YTD. You are indeed doing very well to stay positive this year while many of us …
Were there many Chinese stocks delisted from major U.S. stock exchanges for failing to follow the GARP and auditing requirements ? I would not touch ECNS, perhaps only through experienced managers.
Agree. Time better spend to find pockets of opportunities in this challenging environment. Can’t imagine going back to using brokers for buy and sell orders.
Just pick up some 2yr CD with Morgan Stanley yielding 4.7%. CDs will likely get over 5% after Nov and Dec rate hike. If CPI stays above the historical average of 3.5%, stock and bond return will struggle, 2-3% total?
Seafarer’s Prevailing Winds articles on China and other part of emerging market are very informative. They are one of the reason that I am very light on EM exposure even though it suppose to represent future growth.
Thanks for the update. CDs are now yielding a tad higher than treasuries with the same duration. 4.7% for 2 year CD is very good. I expect after Dec’s rate hike, it will go over 5% for 2 year CDs. You can buy more then.
BY the way, some said th…
My opinion is that 80% stock allocation for someone who is nearly retired seems a bit too aggressive. Holding TIPs this year is mixed as @devesh pointed out in his recent commentary. Not sure Clements’s strategy fits well in current environment. Tar…
Who know what is leading this week’s short rally. Many buy the dips have not panned out so well this year. The trend of missed earnings, lower revenues, and cost cutting does not bode well going forward for the market. For now, I am focusing being …
Today Google and Microsofts’ earnings missed their expectation. Meta announced lower revenue. Next two rounds of rate hikes would put even more pressure particularly on tech stocks. Housing market is not doing well. So it is hard to imagine the m…
For new issues (CDs and treasures), Fidelity is very easy to use. Vanguard works well using Google Chrome browser but not Safari (very strange).
Remember that treasuries are easy to trade on secondary market. Brokered CDs are not as liquid.
