Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Support MFO
Donate through PayPal
Sven
Lynn,
Thank you so much. I am planning on a 3-year ladder since I am a year away from retirement. Lots of spreadsheet work to calculate the income replacement needed. This ladder will create a steady income stream. So thank you for all your help.
I moved back to high quality bond funds this year. Some of which you covered in the SA article. For now, I will stay with agency bonds to the bond ladder. I will pick active managers for corporate bonds.
Sven
VGMS ER 0.3%, comparable to other actively managed multiple sector ETFs such as BINC.
Other Vanguard actively managed, core and core-plus bonds also available in ETFs.
@rfono, I have had limited success with EM debts - volatile and geopolitical risk. So I will shy away from them.
I prefer European debts, especially among the Nordic countries. Professor Snowball provided a detailed write up on NRDCX several mon…
Good move @rono. You have a lot more stomach to play with Tesla.
We have been moving more US bonds to overseas debt, NRDCX. Our target is to have 40% invested outside of US. Next is more country-specific stock index.
You are welcome. I first read the article in Barrons, then it appeared in Apple News. Perhaps for Apple News subscribers, they can get access to it. Dan Ivasyn seldom provides interview unlike Bill Gross. Thanks to @Lewis Braham, the article is w…
Is that something in addition to the 1099-B and or 1099-DIV? We received only one 1099-DIV from TRP.
Think we will transfer our remaining funds to Fidelity this year. We got our tax return done a week ago with no issues.
@Observant1, the recent Barron’s article on Ivascyn and Murata’s PIMIX also describes their move to higher quality debts (he likes agency and mortgage-backed bonds) and reduced junk bonds. Additionally, moving from 0.8 to 4.7 years in duration is du…
Bank loan funds are lagging money market this year. So does high yield bonds. They had their run in the last several years. Think it is time to go higher quality and perhaps venture into longer duration.
PRWCX typically has 8-10% invested in ba…
@yogibb, what is the common wisdom say when the Bull-Bear Spread is low as now? I have build my cash position and be patient. Getting 4% yield from money market is reasonable.
Powell stated there may be two rate cut this year. They are in a tough spot with many unknowns.
If inflation stays above the target 2% range and growth slows, this would become stagnation.
interest payments to some creditors could be stopped may destabilize Treasuries and dollar
Isn’t it the same as defaulting on the debt obligation ?
In January 2025, Barrons mentioned that U.S. Will Lose Its Last Triple-A Credit Rating .
https:…
Thank you very much. This hour-long interview provides more information on Giroux and his portfolio management this year. Additional noteworthy points he made:
1. PRWCX is now at 51% equity whereas historically stock allocation is at 60%.
2. All…
/// BARTIROMO: Investors are on edge over the possibility of a recession after the Atlanta Fed predicted a 2.4% contraction this quarter
LUTNICK: What? Say that again? 2.4% contraction?! Right here right now -- that is ridiculous
Wow! That is all …
Not to pile on the article above. The concluding statement is generalized with the aim at a broad audience. Everyone on this board is in different phases of investing. Some are working while other are retiring or in-retirement already. Thus, we h…
The worst part is the extension of tax cut for the wealthy and raise the debt limit. So much for being the fiscal “conservative” party as the federal deficit continues to rise.
Thanks to @LewisBraham, the article describes why Ivascyn move the bond sectors PIMIX’s to another while increasing the quality and duration from 9/31/20 to 1/31/25.
excerpt:
“One of the core themes that we have today is that bonds are cheap, s…
Absolutely agree! Poor policy often have significant consequences. The top talent will move overseas so they continue their research.
This is similar to the Alzheimer diseases during Reagan administration. The stoppage paused the momentum that …
NOAA is crucial to maintain safety warning ahead before disaster strikes. When the western states are have longer wildfire season and higher occurrences, that is Mother Nature. Same goes to hurricanes in the southeast region.
The finance impact is…
Here is an article from National Institute of Health, “ Measurement of mercury levels in concentrated over-the-counter fish oil preparations: is fish oil healthier than fish?”
Context: Fish consumption has been associated with a decreased risk of c…
The worst insult to everyone is that he will cut tax for the wealthy and let the rest of us suffer with inflation and unemployment.
Noted many GOP representatives are no longer holding town hall meetings as they meet with their angry constituents…
A well balanced asset allocation tends to ride out the storm better.
If you examine the bond portion of PRWCX, Giroux divides the bank loans and high yield (higher risk), corporate (medium risk) and treasury (lower risk). Also he maintains a hig…
I for one has a hard time to see this year will end well with he possibility of a soft landing. Inflation alone will keep the already expensive stock market from advancing further.
Adding tariffs to Canada, Mexico, and China is like adding fuel t…
It is to see negative correlation between bonds to stocks at work today. Investment grade bonds did well. Short tern junk bonds lost a bit.
The 10 years treasury fell 10 bps.
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-r…
Thank you. Very well written. Excerpt from her article.
Now, even Trump won’t rule out a potential recession. If other consequences of Trump mismanagement and chaos manufacturing arise (e.g., a government shutdown, a default on the U.S. debt, esc…
I believe all of us were vaccinated as kids when we entered public school, and it should still be effective against measles. For the elderly who have compromised health, a booster shot is recommended according to my doctor. Two confirmed dead in Tex…
No surprise here since he does not knows his math in building business with sustainable profit. His first wife, Ivana, was the brain behind the building of his real estate business. She did all the work, negotiated with the seller, and secure finan…
Some speculated that this administration wants to cause a recession, then they look like hero to have the FED cut interest rate. I don't buy it, but can they be that stupid!
In the meantime, there will be many collateral damages to the economy esp…
I too had cod liver oil as a child. Gross! I will stay with a well balanced diet.
By the way, I got a measles vaccine recently as my primary care physician recommended. Measles was eradicated from the US population by year 2000 through vaccinati…
Good comment from Asness.
My criticism has been narrowly focused on PE’s lack of mark-to-market valuations and some of the implications this brings. The illiquidity and nonmarking were once implicitly acknowledged, appropriately, as a bug, but are n…
There is no free lunch in high yield bonds. They fall much more in drawdown than that of treasury, for example. 2008 and 2020 drawdowns are good reminder.
On our fixed income bucket, we have 1/3 high yield, 1/3 IG bonds, and 1/3 cash. In recent …
Agree. In recent weeks, the dollar has been falling against several major currencies according to the dollar index. There are other implications suggesting negative outlooks.
Five cut is a lot due to current inflation is higher than that of 2% target. If inflation ticks higher from tariffs, one can expected higher and longer rate scenario. So who paints himself into corner ?
The other scenario is US enters a recession…
Warren Buffet descibes Tariffs are ‘an act of war’ in his rare CNN interview.
https://cnn.com/2025/03/03/business/warren-buffett-tariffs-trump/index.html
One has to watch the “The Apprentice (the film released in 2024)” to better understand Trump as a businessman. It is quite chilling as it reveals Trump’s dealing in business. Now he applies them in politics.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_App…
Long, really long. However, fact-check his state of the union is enlightening.
https://npr.org/2025/03/04/g-s1-50488/trump-congress-joint-address-fact-check
