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Sven
Lynn,
Thank you so much. I am planning on a 3-year ladder since I am a year away from retirement. Lots of spreadsheet work to calculate the income replacement needed. This ladder will create a steady income stream. So thank you for all your help.
I moved back to high quality bond funds this year. Some of which you covered in the SA article. For now, I will stay with agency bonds to the bond ladder. I will pick active managers for corporate bonds.
Sven
The terminal rate is projected to be 5.00-5.25% if the Fed maintains their path of rate hike. That is the worse scenario if the inflation fails to response to the rate hikes. Now there is an indication that it is slowing, and a more moderate pace c…
JD_co and Old_Joe, you two are too fast. Most of the 2-3 year non-callable CDs you mentioned are all gone by the time I got to my brokerage. Will wait for next week.
Many things happened. The dollar weakened today against major currencies so ma…
Today's CPI and core CPI numbers suggested inflation may have peaked and likely to fall further. Imagine if the numbers came out on the opposite side?
This implies next rate hike will be smaller, 50 bps in December and taper down to 25-25-25 fo…
@JD_co, I started a new discussion on October’s CPI #.
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/60263/october-inflation-report-price-pressures-show-signs-of-cooling#latest
Thanks for the heads up news on CD rates that react quickly. Are …
TROW has not done well this year, so I am glad to see it turning around. Also Cathy Woods’ ARKK ETF which is up 13% ! But this ETF is still down 60% for the year.
Today is just one data point and there is still a way to go. Earning reports ind…
The S&P500 was up 4% this morning. The 2 yr and 10 yr treasury yields also dropped that move that the broader bond index upward. It is encouraging to all investors.
The Fed rate is at 4.0% after November rate hike. If the Fed terminal rate is over 5%, it implies that there are more downside to junk bonds going forward.
I would rather buy Treasuries (not funds) and CDs and hold them to maturity in order to get…
Although it is all about the math, both are important to keep things in perspective. The % number gives you a broad view on the portfolio and the $ value provides an absolute number that we can relate to.
TUHUX ranked on top quartile in 2019 and 2020, but it ranked in the bottom quartile this year! Being ranked 95% among HY category may help a bit. As of 11/4/22, YTD return of BND is down -16.1% and TUHYX is down -16.7% (and that is too much for me…
I can understand your concern. Rest be sure that what you do your devices do not get report back to the manufacturers. Same goes like what you use the internet and where you go and so fourth. If you don’t want someone to track your whereabouts at a…
When you have time, please give "Siri" a try. That is a voice activated function of Apple products (Apple calls it their assistant) to help you with the things you need to find, know, or do every day. Just say "Hey Siri" or hold down the home butto…
In another case he has to settle out of court. The story goes that the defendant cannot find unbiased jurors to go to trial. He is not well liked even in his home town.
https://politico.com/news/2022/11/02/trump-settles-lawsuit-protesters-scuffle-…
I like to play around and eventually get it right. You can also learn from YouTube using the Safari browser and search for what you like to do. The Map app is really handy for helping you to navigate driving direction, especially in new locations …
Be patient with yourself and you will get a hang of it. The manual helps. Soon you will appreciate the touch screen instead of using a keyboard.
Try to learn one function at a time such as text messaging and making phone calls. Have fun with it …
@JD_co, if the Fed stays the course as they planned, the terminal rate will be 5.25 - 5.50% ! And that is just one scenario. The other scenario is recession hits in 2023, unemployment rises, price falls and labor cost eases, the Fed may pause and c…
In stress time, the asset of bond funds tends to go up since they are considered safe haven to the investors. They serve as the ballast to the declining stocks. So a 60/40 allocation would help many folks to navigate the trouble water, but not this …
The market conditions during GFC is quite different from today. The Fed was cutting rate and buying billions of bonds monthly (QE) and it is the opposite today. I invested in Bill Gross’s Pimco Total Return throughout GFC and the Tech Bubble and it…
Majority of bond funds are down 15%, and the Fed is far from done with raising rate. This also spills over into traditional balanced funds and they sustained double digit loss.
Bank loan funds have the least amount of loss, -3% YTD. That is helpi…
The CME report is very informative on the terminal rate of 5.25 - 5.50% !
Yields are getting quite attractive, yields near 4.5+% now. Potentially it will get over 5%+ and would make them competitive to stocks and bonds in coming years.
Agree, it does take conviction to commit a decent allocation.
There are now EM funds created that exclude China stocks. It would be interesting to track their performance relative to VWO.
By the way, last week I bought a 2-yr CD with call-protection (4.7%) from Morgan Stanley. CDs are getting more rewarding now. When they reach 5-6%, they become more attractive than stocks and bonds in coming years.
Also treasuries are catching u…
@yogibb, the 10 Year-3 Month Treasury Yield Spread is the difference between the 10 year treasury rate and the 3 month treasury rate. This spread is widely used as a gauge to study the yield curve. A 10 year-3 month treasury spread that approaches 0…
Like Lewis B pointed out, what is the risk premium in order invest in China ? If the earnings are being manipulated by the state, there is no true reported value. Majority of Chinese citizens invest in bonds and insurance products, not so much thei…
Not trying to change the topic. Treasury department sold $980 millions I bond before Oct 28th deadline. Imagine if there is NO investment limit and you can do transaction on your favorite brokerages.
He is still a sore loser who refuse to concede formally to Lula. He had his staff to make the announcement. Don’t expect him to a letter to Lula like Bush sr. did for Bill Clinton.
Since he has tight tie to the military, there was a possibility…
It is over. Bolsonaro made the right move and handed over the power to Lula.
https://msn.com/en-us/news/world/brazil-s-bolsonaro-vows-to-follow-constitution-orders-transition-to-lula/ar-AA13CPxu?cvid=f4afe2f502884a868d6b6cdac93735e9
Bolsonaro’s son was talking about the voting machines. Same stuff that Sydney Powell, Mike Lindell and Rudy Giuliani were pushing for. Don’t know what their court would request for a recount.
100% of the votes have been counted. Lula 50.9% and …
His son was making noise to cast doubt on the election integrity (sounds familiar) even before the voting closed. We have to keep watching as over 99% of the votes have been counted.
Bolsonaro was leading in the beginning and Lula surged in the …
Reuters reported Lula won! Look like Brazil election is based on who win the popular votes by over 50%. Lula won by a narrow margin, 50.8% versus 49.2%. Someone is smiling from above.
https://reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-votes-heated-bolson…
We may have to wait a bit unless Bolsonaro conceded right away. Remember, Bolsonaro has tight tie to the military. This could be a dangerous time and a test of their democratic electron process. Nevertheless, I am hopeful that the Brazilians have …
@Mona, you have good points. Stay with VEIPX since OIEIX is closed to new investors. Only VGRIX is open. On closer examination, VEIPX is now co-managed between Wellington and VG quant group. Think @msf brought this to our attention a year. Not ex…
Thanks for the link.
China is far from out of the wood. Wuhan is having another COVID outbreak. China lacks effective vaccines and implementation program that will continue to impact their economic growth. This draconian zero-tolerance policy doe…
It is good to have new managers on this show.
Since 2004, Clare Hart has been the lead manager for several JPMorgan mutual funds, Equity Income (A share, OEIIX) and US Value (A share, VGRIX). Quick review on their performance records indicate th…
