Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Support MFO
Donate through PayPal
Sven
Lynn,
Thank you so much. I am planning on a 3-year ladder since I am a year away from retirement. Lots of spreadsheet work to calculate the income replacement needed. This ladder will create a steady income stream. So thank you for all your help.
I moved back to high quality bond funds this year. Some of which you covered in the SA article. For now, I will stay with agency bonds to the bond ladder. I will pick active managers for corporate bonds.
Sven
Good comparison. Someone posted here that DIVI, Franklin International Core Dividend Tilt Index, which also has a comparable 5 year performance record with respect to annual returns, drawdown and Martin ratio (obtained from MFO Premium).
There is more work to do on both sides in selling the compromises. Clock is ticking away as the X-day, June 5th, approaches.
https://msn.com/en-us/news/politics/mccarthy-s-next-challenge-sell-debt-ceiling-deal-in-congress/ar-AA1bNhGH?ocid=hpmsn&…
Thanks for the news. This will impact California’s housing market significantly. Correct me if I am wrong, carrying home owner insurance is a requirement by the mortgage providers. Who is going to cover wildfire hazard now?
Next natural disaster…
“If it’s a long flight, by all means relax and take off your shoes, but there is never a reason to take off your socks. Foot smell is inescapable. Also, keep your feet to yourself.
That is so true that I encountered in my travel. There are those w…
Thank you @davidmoran. A safer withdrawal rate should be less than 4% initially, especially during an off-year like 2022. If inflation remains higher than 2% annually, one needs to increase their stock allocation, say several %.
@Derf, no I did not watch 60 Minutes last night. I recall that defense contractors often charge more than what the original contract cost and they are creative in getting it through. During Regan administration, a toilet seat on an aircraft cost ma…
Think the market is pre-mature to think the FED will pause and pivot right away this year. Strong labor market is counteracting other data indicating a slowing inflation. FED is expecting a mild recession or soft landing.
Good interview overall with many historical perspectives. He is quite bearish and the economy is entering a recession now.
1. He likes things that you need, i.e. consumer staples (food), utilities, and healthcare, not so much things you want.
2. …
The two analysts think there may be another round of rate hike in summer with the high employment rate while other indicators are showing slowing economy.
Concur with @yogibearbull on the risk of short duration bond funds in rising rate environment. Bond price falls as interest rate rises and there is NO hiding place. The same risk is lessen this now now that most of the rate hike is coming to an en…
But the success of TurboTax rests on a shaky foundation, one that could collapse overnight if the U.S. government did what most wealthy countries did long ago and made tax filing simple and free for most citizens."
Many European countries do not r…
Great comments from everyone.
For the reason of being state tax exempt, we invest in treasury over CDs in taxable account. Additionally, we like the liquidity aspect that enable selling treasury before maturity in secondary market, whereas brokere…
Think the defaulting will accelerate the pace of recession and things will get ugly. I will buy bonds of all types as the FED will cut rates quickly. Bond prices will go up while stocks and commodities will be in red.
Have to chuckle a bit. It does take some patience in order to navigate through TD site.
BTW, IRS is setting up online tax filing for free. If they can make the user interface similar to that ofTurboTax, that would be very helpful for those with…
That area is cold and densely forested. Global warming is changing the landscape for the worse and wildfires are now taken place in these locations. This is only May and El Niño weather pattern will bring hotter and drier weather.
Beware of “callable” CDs! When the rate drop below what these CDs initially offered, they will be called back. At that point, you are facing reinvestment risk—that is, the risk of having to reinvest a maturing security at a lower interest rate in …
Totally agree with @hank and @MikeM.
CDs and T bills are still cash equivalents, and I own plenty of them for the time being. They are maturing in coming years, and they will be deploy in bond ladders and bond funds.
Using solely Flex funds without other ETFs and non-Fidelity funds will not work for us. Fidelity will make their money from their 0.35%-1.0% advisory fee. They have made several cold calls, but the timing was premature. I will reach out to them ag…
Excerpt from the article
Big rotation out of commodities, utilities, and into tech stocks — highest since December 2021 — and euro-zone equities
Investors are most long growth versus value stocks since July 2020; survey investors have said only t…
I didn't mention specific financial planning because this particular service was discontinued years ago and I don't know whether a service like this is integrated into Vanguard's current service offering.
So much has changed at Vanguard post-pande…
Same here on the diversification benefit. Also the world is enter a new phase of de-globalization as geopolitical conflicts rise. Some world class companies are located in Europe and Japan. In addition, the oversea stock valuation is quite attracti…
In late 2021, we greatly reduced bond exposure as multiple inflation signs flared up. That saved the misery in bonds through much of 2022 when we turned to CD Treasury ladders.
Right now, FED rate hike cycle is near the end (terminal rate) and li…
Now only 2 more weeks of this manufactured crisis.
I couldn’t agree more. During the 2011’s debt limit debate, the Standard and Poor downgraded US treasury from AAA to AA and all three indexes fell 3-7% on the same days. Most likely this will tri…
Not sure I completely buy Subramanian’s argument on commodity as US is entering a recession. Oil, a major component of commodities is driven by supply and demand that follows the business cycles. Oil prices have been trading well below its high (R…
@Mark, Congratulation! It is a beautiful thing to welcome a new generation.
Now is the time to help your son and daughter to get the 529 plan started. Time is on your side for the college fund to compound for next 18 years before withdrawing. Yo…
US is now averaging one mass shooting per week !
This morning Governor Abbott blames mental health as the root cause for the shooting in Allen, TX on Saturday; even though mental health may not have any connection to it in this case and Abbott k…
@LB, thank you for posting the excerpt.
If and when US defaulting does happened, it will affect these rich GOP donors and their pocketbooks too. The consequences are grave to many and they are needless. How can a small extremists hold the nation …
@catch22, agree that 2023 is somewhat differ from the dot-com time period with respect to profit. One has to view the tech companies not merely a monolithic sector but rather on company by company basis. Some semiconductor companies including Intel …
Mike Wilson, a strategist at Morgan Stanley, has noted the spread between S&P 500 index and RSP index has increased since the beginning of the year. (He is one of the most bearish analyst out there and get ignored often). This implies that only …
@larryB, don’t think you are being overly pessimistic. Many of us have been thinking along the same line as well but haven’t voiced that directly.
Planting paper currency is the ground is pretty silly in light of wildfires and theft. Same goes fo…
Last post @Bobpa posted on MFO was back in June 2022.
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/151173/#Comment_151173
In this post, he talked about his portfolio and holdings where VWINX is one of the larger allocation fund. Bobpa…
Thanks @yogibearull for your input. So the market is expecting the worst scenario of US treasury will default by June 1st? It came close in 2011, but the psychological impact was unfortunately not long lasting enough.
Indeed, one month T bill spiked to 5.76% on 5/4/23; higher than all other T bills. Not sure what to make of it.
Not sure if I want to buy T bills, CD, or just sit this out past June 1st.
MFO Premium has been instrumental for us for our portfolio construction and risk management. Ulcer index and consistency are some of the key parameters we look for, especially in uncertain times like today. Ariel Global is a solid choice going int…
