Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
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Sven
Lynn,
Thank you so much. I am planning on a 3-year ladder since I am a year away from retirement. Lots of spreadsheet work to calculate the income replacement needed. This ladder will create a steady income stream. So thank you for all your help.
I moved back to high quality bond funds this year. Some of which you covered in the SA article. For now, I will stay with agency bonds to the bond ladder. I will pick active managers for corporate bonds.
Sven
Can someone explain why TIP bond prices are so volatile and trending downward in this high inflation environment? I am trying to ignore the TIP bond price on my statement.
My guess was cash. At least it preserves the principal. After 7.2% inflation, I am down again.
Several posters guessed well on commodity futures (DBC and VCMDX) and natural resources (FNARX and PRNEX). The single best performing sector. Who c…
Thanks for the chart! Rough year for balanced funds for sure.
Many of my colleagues invested in target date funds and they were surprised by the level of loss they are having. They thought simply everything into one fund would be easier to manage…
Many moves made in late 2021 that helped/distracted this year.
1. Sold all bond funds to stable value, CDs, T bills and money market (just as we need 529 fund for our kids in college)
2. Bought commodity futures and energy and sold half of it la…
The attorney general of that district is liking into the matter.
It is shocking that Santo fabricated his entire life. There was an article in a newspaper questioning about his background but no one follow up to verify the information. What a sh…
Now you guys are scaring me. A coworker was using an app on his Android phone to store his passwords and it was compromised. He found his online bank account was open by someone else. Nothing was taken and he does not know how it happened.
I a…
At the of the article it also highlighted the default risk of BL has increased. Yet there’s a dark cloud to that silver lining. Some 90% of the record $615 billion in loans issued in 2021 were what is known as “covenant-lite” loans with weaker def…
Volatility in 3 years… particularly during the beginning of pandemic in March 2020. It rebounded strongly after Powell cut the rate. Nevertheless it showed the magnitude of drawdown.
I am watching carefully and have pared back some BL/FR funds. …
@MikeM, are we reading the same Barron article by LewisBraham. One I read is “
Floating-Rate Loan Funds Have Promise—and Hidden Risks” and David Giruox was part of the interview. If that is the case, I came away with a different interpretation from…
Would quantitive driven algorithms used in today investing be considered a form of AI ? If it is, Vanguard, BlackRock, and other firms have already deploy it as a tool to guide their factor-based investing. Perhaps part of this discussion should be…
We will be buying I bond this year. It will be paying 6.8% for the inflation.
TreasuryDirect is running slow and not getting all accounts updated on a timely basis. Check again today or tomorrow and both accounts should be identical.
That is one of the reason that I donate to PBS every year. Before Judy Woodruff, there was Jim Lehrer (passed in 2020) and Robert MacNeil, they were wonderful. The high quality interviews are something journalists today don’t do anymore. I am conf…
It is not uncommon the old stories get repeat again. Nevertheless it is useful to remind the readers what they need to prepare in case of recession takes place in 2023. Many still argue the recession will be shallow and short live, and everything wi…
The movie, “I, robot” (2004) starring Will Smith is quite enlightening on AI. The robots have gained self-consciousness of themselves and their surroundings, and they turn on the programmer and the human race.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I,_Robo…
Totally concur on Judy Woodruff !
Learned recently about her disabled son who changed her view on healthcare.
https://nihrecord.nih.gov/2017/10/20/woodruff-shares-personal-story-caregiver-son
In the long run, VWINX is a fine allocation fund for conservative investors. Wellington has a deep bench of managers and new managers are likely been a co-manager for several years before assuming the role as the full manager.
LewisBranham is spot…
@Old_Joe, I notice the same changes in bank CD yield too, but I don’t know more than you do. Wonder if that is related to mortgage lending and the demand has greatly reduced after rounds of rate hikes.
Right now there are few 2-3 years non-calla…
You can only edit the posts you posted, not other MFO posters.
Go the upper right hand corner of your post and click on the “wheel” icon. It says “edit” and from there everything in that post can be edit as you wish. You can post comment again.
Rebalanced a bit in November. Sold some energy and commodity futures positions and purchased another treasury ladder. Will have cash when better opportunities present themselves next year.
This year JG has been off on many aspects of bond investing. He was recommending long bonds as the interest rate was climbing, These days I don’t pay much attention to him and his funds.
At least Market Watch is disclosing that the information is generated using an artificial intelligence software. As one can see, it reported the changes of a pre-set numbers of stocks and report them along with few words. Rest be sure that is not m…
Thank you @davidmoran. Paul Krugman added more details on factors contributing to high inflation. Challenge is that equity is one of the few asset class that is a good hedge against inflation in the long term. At the moment, YTD of S&P index i…
The persistent high service cost is due the large number of workers who quit or retired during the pandemic. Restaurants are having hard time find enough workers even as they increase their wages. This appears to be a global phenomenon not just in …
@davidmoran,
NYT is behind a paywall. Would you please post a short summary? I have been following Paul Krugman articles when I get access to some of them.
@yogibb, I total agree that the Fed’s 2% inflation target is bogus since the situation is …
China is a “frenemy” to the West on many fronts. This Ukraine war brings out the supply chain risk and many countries are recognizing it. So much for the push for globalization - free lunch.
US is making move to reduce some dependence of semicondu…
@Old_Joe,
Great suggestion. Perhaps we can post our comments on @catch22 earlier post as the topic has changed direction that may affect the global market.
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/60452/ihme-covid-model-for-china-china-…
The more pertinent question we should be asking is how this COVID fallout will affect the Chinese manufacturing capacity and the consequence on the global supply chain.
If the recent shutdown of Foxconn factory is an indicator of problem, this wou…
The more pertinent question we should be asking is how this COVID fallout will affect the Chinese manufacturing capacity and the consequence on the global supply chain.
If the recent shutdown of Foxconn factory is an indicator of problem, this wo…
It is all about creating their own narratives while they fail in every aspects of controlling COVID.
https://nytimes.com/2022/12/23/world/asia/china-covid-death-toll.html
Looking at a cynical view, a million death among the elderly would be benefi…
@Derf,
Equities carry different risk from those of CDs and treasuries. Value and dividend oriented stocks may have lowered risk. One thing for sure, tech stocks are still expensive as they continue to fail in meeting earning expectation. If recessi…
@catch, I did notice the FZDXX yield is reaching a respectable yield now.
Today, there are many choices. If you willing to go a bit longer in duration, treasury bills are yielding a bit more. As of 12/23/22, the 13 weeks (4.34%), 26 weeks (4.67…
That was my exact point! It was set up so there will be no auditing while he was in office. Also how did he managed to pay $0 income tax in 2020. Usually when there is substantial business loss in million$, it would trigger auditing and there was …
