Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
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Sven
Lynn,
Thank you so much. I am planning on a 3-year ladder since I am a year away from retirement. Lots of spreadsheet work to calculate the income replacement needed. This ladder will create a steady income stream. So thank you for all your help.
I moved back to high quality bond funds this year. Some of which you covered in the SA article. For now, I will stay with agency bonds to the bond ladder. I will pick active managers for corporate bonds.
Sven
Not sure I completely buy Subramanian’s argument on commodity as US is entering a recession. Oil, a major component of commodities is driven by supply and demand that follows the business cycles. Oil prices have been trading well below its high (R…
@Mark, Congratulation! It is a beautiful thing to welcome a new generation.
Now is the time to help your son and daughter to get the 529 plan started. Time is on your side for the college fund to compound for next 18 years before withdrawing. Yo…
US is now averaging one mass shooting per week !
This morning Governor Abbott blames mental health as the root cause for the shooting in Allen, TX on Saturday; even though mental health may not have any connection to it in this case and Abbott k…
@LB, thank you for posting the excerpt.
If and when US defaulting does happened, it will affect these rich GOP donors and their pocketbooks too. The consequences are grave to many and they are needless. How can a small extremists hold the nation …
@catch22, agree that 2023 is somewhat differ from the dot-com time period with respect to profit. One has to view the tech companies not merely a monolithic sector but rather on company by company basis. Some semiconductor companies including Intel …
Mike Wilson, a strategist at Morgan Stanley, has noted the spread between S&P 500 index and RSP index has increased since the beginning of the year. (He is one of the most bearish analyst out there and get ignored often). This implies that only …
@larryB, don’t think you are being overly pessimistic. Many of us have been thinking along the same line as well but haven’t voiced that directly.
Planting paper currency is the ground is pretty silly in light of wildfires and theft. Same goes fo…
Last post @Bobpa posted on MFO was back in June 2022.
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/151173/#Comment_151173
In this post, he talked about his portfolio and holdings where VWINX is one of the larger allocation fund. Bobpa…
Thanks @yogibearull for your input. So the market is expecting the worst scenario of US treasury will default by June 1st? It came close in 2011, but the psychological impact was unfortunately not long lasting enough.
Indeed, one month T bill spiked to 5.76% on 5/4/23; higher than all other T bills. Not sure what to make of it.
Not sure if I want to buy T bills, CD, or just sit this out past June 1st.
MFO Premium has been instrumental for us for our portfolio construction and risk management. Ulcer index and consistency are some of the key parameters we look for, especially in uncertain times like today. Ariel Global is a solid choice going int…
I concur. Define pension plan was nearly all disappear when we enter the workforce and it replaced by define contribution plans, 401(k) and 403(b). Some state and federal workers still have pensions. The bulk of their income will come from their t…
It may take a year or longer for these companies to get to the breakeven point before the price would decline. But I agree that the government can help.
IBM core business has changed over the years and now they are largely a IT service company. Colleagues I know who work there are now working elsewhere. Many companies are looking at AI as a way to reduce headcount, that adds to the the bottom line…
@hank, Think the collapse of First Republic Bank is the beginning of banking consolidation. The wider implications of credit crunch would be tough for smaller banks (local lending) and their customers. I sold all small and mid caps funds in early…
@WABAC, ver wise indeed. One should be maintain a well balanced portfolio prior this debt limit deadline. We already made changes to position ourselves for the coming recession. Holding higher level of cash will help as opportunities will come in …
Thanks. Many shareholders are affected including Vanguard, American, BlackRock, SSgA, and others.
https://money.cnn.com/quote/shareholders/shareholders.html?symb=FRC&subView=institutional
The regional bank stocks are down today.
@Observant1, I apologized for the mistake. Should have taken a screen shot and the CUSIP #. Again, my mistake. Schwab offers a non-callable 12 months CD at 5.1%.
Just saw 12-month CD (non-callable) with 5.20% yield from JP Morgan at Vanguard brokerage. JP Morgan CDs are generally callable. Keep watching as these CDs should make their way to other brokerages.
Here is a piece from VOX to follow up what @AndyJ posted above :
they have proven unwilling to make major cuts to the three biggest components of the federal budget: Social Security, Medicare, and the military. And so their just-passed spending pla…
@AndyJ, the inverted yield curve is dictated by investors who want to get paid in the near term due to the deteriorating economy. Historically it has been a remarkable reliable indicator for the coming recession. Questions are when, severity and dur…
@AndyJ, I was responding your comment while commenting on a broader context. Sorry that I should have link to your earlier post. In the last few months, the 1 and 2 yr treasury’s have been volatile, especially in March with the SVB and Signature. Th…
Good interview:
1. He believes FED will pause after May3rd FOMC meeting and holds the rate above 5% for a bit longer than people think; perhaps into 2025.
2 FED is losing money by holding long dated treasury yielding 2% while many are paying 4% t…
The movement of the short and long duration yields is independent to each other. The longer end is determined by the market while the short end is controlled by the FED’s rate. It is counterintuitive to extend duration toward the intermediate dura…
Thanks for the link @msf. The scope of guns can be broaden to something much bigger since they can be “dual uses” for civilian and military uses. Depending how they are being use, they can be beneficial to mankind and potentially for military uses a…
Few viable paths are available for First Republic Bank. Unlikely they will get bailed out by government and they are likely to taken over by the government. This means stock will to zero. So far there is no buyers. The other option is to sell asset.…
Thanks for the info. At 4.30% composite rate, will I bond be competitive to that of say, 5 year TIPs at auction?
I anticipate the inflation (CPI) will stay 4-5% until end of 2024. The labor market is still tight.
@Mark, You are spot on. The divergence old NASDAZ from DJIA and S&P500is alarming. But these FAANG stocks are also trading at high valuation. I believe everything will reverted to the mean at some point, just like the run up prior to the inter…
I concur. It is not only Grandeur Peaks but also the smaller banks including SVB, who did not have their team and CPA to assess the risk scenarios.
Hopefully GP would make a sincere change on their investment strategy. As it is the company will …
I recall GP Global Stahlwart fund was holding SVB and First Republic Bank in their top 10 holdings. Bad luck or poor stock picking? Also noted too most of GP funds are lagging this year.
Our paper I-bond just arrived. Much quicker than anticipated.
Thought they would be bigger like stock certificates. Will follow @msf instruction above to send them to Treasury Direct. Thank you again.
Last week large banks earnings reported were mostly ok. JP Morgan did well. This week smaller regional banks are reporting. First Republic Bank was in trouble in March and this is no surprise. Is this problem more wide spread among all regional ba…
Does it imply that the money market yield can drop soon because the one month T bill?
For now I will let cash build up as we approach the deadline of debt limit voting. I have no confidence on McCarthy and there is a chance of repeat of 2011.
For those who invest in mid- and small cap funds, take a look at the top 10 holdings, especially banks. Many regional banks are have hard time holding on their depositors since they pay too little for too long. Many money market funds pay 4.5%!
@catch, I invested in SMH for a while, and keep adding when the opportunities present themselves. I reduced more stocks recently and added more high quality bonds. Regional banks are reporting this week and it does not look encouraging. Large tech…
