Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
That 4 sector allocation looks like a superb and sensible tactical allocation plan for the current environment with one caveat. That you actively monitor your portfolio and react if it should become necessary (not to say being an active trader). I s…
Reply to @willmatt72: Good examples of the limitations of using volatility measures to judge risk. TBGVX has lower SD numbers than SSIFX but if there is another serious downturn, it will lose a lot more than SSIFX. SSIFX has higher volatility number…
Seriously? People still believe in PPT?
Anyway, I am not sure he is saying markets are logical. He is trying to make a logical argument that the markets are behavioral and valuations based on money chasing assets, not an earth shattering thesis. Of…
Reply to @MarkM: Interesting. Did you really see a tautology or is it circular reasoning? Care to explain? It should be fairly easy to point out the logical fallacy. Wouldn't be surprised if that is where the predictive capabilities come from.
Reply to @jerry: Yes any list that isn't based on just taking the top performing funds for the last year or three or five should be a good start. Anything that models reality more than their artificial construct for selecting active funds that is ju…
Reply to @willmatt72: I wonder if you are looking for a unicorn. You want lower volatility and high performance?
What are the parameters of volatility and performance that you would be comfortable with? You can screen for that in the online mutual…
I like the way this guy thinks! Thanks for the link @bee!
His premise is similar to my thesis posted earlier in the context of discussing stock multiples. That stocks have become derivatives in the direction based on future investor availability th…
We speculate that filtering actively managed funds may shift the probability curve closer to an all-index-fund portfolio as in the low-expense example, but we are not convinced that any filtering methodology will significantly alter the balance in …
Suggest it might be helpful to think about why you need a third fund in addition to the two you have and that would make it easier to filter and select a fund.
For example, if the goal is geographical diversification, you will need a Europe or EMEA…
Reply to @bee: Danoff is the contra in contrafund that has done well detecting trends early, using research and intuition to pick amongst them and then making big bets on those sectors contrary to most other managers that only seem to do 2 out of th…
@bee, not a comment directed at you.
Problem with "contrarian investing" is that it is an investment philosophy but not an investment strategy because it doesn't give you any entry and exit points and the successful bets recognized only in retrospe…
Reply to @bee: You appear to be a much shorter-term trader than I am and so these bets may work for you. Hope they do, I am all for people making money. But if it is just small positions that don't make a difference one way or another, then it reall…
Annuities started at a time when the markets weren't as volatile and they could arbitrage between lower bond yields and statistically higher equity returns over time. Providers had the capital pool to ride out bear years from the excess returns they…
Just a heads up that linking to the print versions does not work on mobile devices (phones or tablets) with Android or iOS on an increasing number of sites including this one. They redirect you to a digital subscription page as in this case. Many si…
Very weird. Last night it wasn't working from this device. Today it is. Not sure what changed.
Tried to do some debugging yesterday. Nothing would be visible in the Sign In overlay but inspecting the DOM inspector would show all the elements for th…
Any chance this can be restored for Androids so I can use my phone while traveling?
Understand if that is not a priority given the constraints. Let me know if you need any logs/tests from me to investigate.
Reply to @bee: I am currently on the other side with a position in GLL and have not been stopped out yet but bleeding from this week. The trend hasn't reversed yet and it remains to be seen whether this time is different from the dead cat bounces in…
Reply to @David_Snowball: I agree with outsourcing the bond allocation to competent managers for most invesors as an option. However, I am not sure you aren't replacing one problem with another of selecting which "strategic" thesis/manager in this …
@mikes425, my recommendation is not to take any big positions on bond funds (unless you are an active investor that uses some kind of momentum or trend strategy) until the dust settles a bit in this environment. That would mean waiting for at least …
Lovely write up. Have a comment on the Vanguard Minimum Volatility fund. There is something seriously missing in the objective. It is paraphrased in the post as
Volatility is then a sort of fallout from the system. Vanguard reverses the process her…
Not going to post the whole portfolio but my core portfolio (substantially most of net worth) which is a globally diversified moderate allocation ending the year at 60% equities, 25% bonds and 15% cash gained about 14% for the year which I expect wo…
This brings up an interesting question. How long is a mutual fund recommendation valid for? 3 years? 5 years? 10 years?
Other than index funds, nothing remains the same. Even index funds evolve as ERs change, ETFs have emerged over mutual funds wit…
Reply to @Maurice: Unless you are a washing machine or dryer enthusiast in which case you would rather use CR for cars or something else. :-)
Seems typical for CR recommendations. If you were a smart or informed consumer in an area, you can usuall…
Reply to @Old_Skeet: Anyone who has watched Nature shows understands Ted very well I think. There is always an alpha male in every herd that constantly needs to assert that status and challenge anything that it thinks undermines that status. We have…
Reply to @MarkM: Can I ask what that purpose is for this fund? My problem with Hussman is that he practices risk management against the markets but not against himself especially when he stretches his neck out in an unusual investment thesis. The la…
Reply to @bee: Agree on knowledge-based or informed decision making being the goal.
Just saying knowledge can be acquired from many sources, academic theories, subject studies, practical experience, intuition led experimentation. None of them are m…
Just curious as to why people are benchmarking this against SP500.
What role does a fund like this play in your portfolio?
If this was included as an alternative investment for strategy diversification, it would be compared against other alternati…
Reply to @davidrmoran: You seem to have some subtle distinction between personal insults and "calling out" that eludes me. Anyway, life is too short to keep responding to people intent on picking a fight for whatever reason that motivates them or gi…
Reply to @Ted: No disagreement there but would your opinion on price of being chicken have been any different if it had done better in a down market? You don't strike me as a "need insurance" guy, more like self-insured?
If I am wrong on the above …
Reply to @Ted: It depends on how you value "insurance" and whether you feel the need. Insurance premiums always look like a bad idea in retrospect except in the few cases when you are glad you had it.
As to whether RGHVX would have provided that in…
Reply to @Junkster: The only people that say "size doesn't matter" are those that are size challenged regardless of whether it matters or not. :-)
But seriously, I think your point against high IQ is as equally valid or invalid as it is Math that …
Reply to @scott: You have hit on a very important distinction. It is financial decision making that matters, not just financial literacy. The former is much broader than the latter.
Your conclusion as well as David's reaction above is the expected …
Be careful of what you ask for. US economy is built to a large extent on financial illiteracy and serious lack of future planning. Trying to change that will have significant impact on the economy requiring a redesign of consumption based economy, t…
Wow, what a mess of a fund. It should be possible in some cases like this to sue for breach of fiduciary duty or just gross negligence. Too bad inflicting financial harm is treated so different from inflicting even emotional harm.
Wonder what their…
Churning was never a big problem in bond markets because the spreads have always been high and margins low to make it punitive for trading. Bond markets are more like real estate market than equities. Most bond funds don't trade unless they have to …
Contrarian investing is a very abused/misused term. More often than not, it is used to justify/rationalize a position for which there is no other justification than to say one is being contrarian. Then there is the selection bias. People only rememb…
