Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
I had done some due diligence on these companies last year when VC money was pouring in. My quick summary is that they have over-promised and under-delivered both to customers and to investors but it is still early in the automation game for investi…
Reply to @Old_Skeet: If you are interested in what some TA might say about the entries into these funds (even if just for entertainment):
FDSAX nice bounce recently, would wait till it reaches about 17.40 to avoid possibility of a near term reversa…
Reply to @Junkster: Thank you. I hope you understand my question regarding you was a rhetorical one to make a point.
One shouldn't have to do this as Ted asked. Pretenders are easy to spot. Besides, this isn't even a my strategy vs yours thing goin…
Reply to @Ted: It appears from your answer and the recent posts some of it quite snarky to anything that doesn't please you, you have succumbed to a common affliction of board moderators everywhere. Getting a God-complex.
The usual remedy is a bri…
Reply to @Ted: Is anyone suggesting any strategy here or stating their portfolio performance for the year up to doing the same? Are you up to doing the same when you criticize others for their investment choices like too much cash in a fund?
Will @J…
I don't use any devices with Flash anymore so can't see the Morningstar article but I am happily surprised by the other article that explains both the good and the bad of leverage to educate on the Math. Typically, most articles on leveraged ETFs wa…
Reply to @davidrmoran: I am not sure I understand what you mean by selective destructions and quoting out of context in a different thread is never helpful.
Here is a broader response to what I think you are asking which will explain my position be…
There is often confusion between an ATM card (processed by bank networks) and a debit card (processed by Visa/MC). Partly because the industry itself is trying to confuse.
ATM cards have been around for a long time and require a pin for use. You ca…
Reply to @msf: Which is why the industry would love to move freeloaders onto this. They have already cornered the rebate market for seeding. Gift cards and branded cards will be next.
They also make boatloads with the decay from the fees when unuse…
Reply to @reids: Since credit card loans are a common backing instrument for CDOs along with student loans, mortgages, etc., would you mind explaining what you mean?
Reply to @Hrux: They were just starting out during the recession and didn't really take off until 2010 or so in loan volume. Low sample data to compare. It is like comparing the performance of a very new fund with low AUM where the ER might be held …
Debit cards were a failed attempt by the industry to move the 'freeloaders" (I suspect most people in this forum fall into this category) who pay off their bills each month and get a free float and transaction protection. Never mind that it is not f…
Reply to @Hrux:
Let me start off by apologizing for not being clear in my statement on understanding risks. I didn't mean to imply that you in particular didn't understand the risks but rather that it was not possible for ANYONE to understand/quant…
Reply to @Hrux: With all due respect, I am not sure you (or anyone else) understands the risks in LC in particular. Just that you didn't face many defaults in a short period. This looks like the very reason towns in Norway and Italy bought CDOs beca…
Only tax-loss harvesting in core account to balance the massive distributions this year and so sold a lot of fixed income, commodities and emerging markets. Will get back into balance after 30 days.
In the play money account with leveraged funds, U…
A good rule for investing is never to invest in something that you don't understand and I don't think you do.
I don't fully understand it either after looking at their website which is surprisingly sparse on required information. That is a red sig…
Broken the last two years? For sure.
Permanently? No way to know that until you see it through at least a full market cycle.
This year is going to distort a lot of perspectives.
Reply to @davidrmoran: Difficult to predict whether it is 1-3 years or say 3-6 years or more of bond bear market (in non equity correlated bond classes, to appease @junkster).
Besides the thesis seems a bit weak to bet on. Do you mean bad news for …
Reply to @Sven: Agree with this entirely. Not sure how you can fit this into a portfolio without much visibility yet into its strategy/holdings.
The low ER and being tied to a dollar hedged index suggests non US equities held almost entirely in ADR…
This is just some notes with no conclusion, moral at the end, or recommendations. Based on my experiments with leveraged funds over the last couple of years. These are things you only learn by doing and not by being an armchair investor. Have the ba…
Reply to @MarkM: You two seem to be talking apples and oranges. If I understand @junkster correctly, he is refering to an active portfolio management style that is a buy-hold-sell to exploit momentum or persistence (as long as and only as long as it…
@Vert has some good points.
I don't know the history of the funds mentioned in my brief participation here or why people fell into "group think".
So far it seems like a great place for fund discovery. I have been exposed to funds that I might neve…
As far as I know, Ted is a volunteer doing this right? Not sure anyone other than site owners have the right to tell him what to do. :-) Besides, putting news in one post will discourage discussion or have multiple discussions in the same thread.
T…
Reply to @Investor: Fair point but confuses my thoughts on flight from fixed income to US equities and possible negative correlation of fixed income, treasuries in particular, with US equities if there was to be a correction with the comment at the …
Reply to @davidrmoran: The comment was regarding his recommendation for a single basket all equities portfolio in this linked post not his diversified portfolios that you presumably used.
Consider the realistic scenario of a typical 20 something st…
I look at P/E ratios inversely, as a measure of investor consensus and risk appetite rather than as a measure of any objective company valuation.
Stocks started as a piece of ownership of the company to share in its profits. Prices went up when peo…
The logical extreme of his portfolio philosophy over decades that exploited two efficient market hypothesis holes - "value premium" and "small premium". He even had an article in MW earlier this year that would have sent his loyal buy and hold cult …
It seems there is a tendency in finance to consider empirical results as natural laws. Some of these work for a while as a self-fulfilling prophecy. If enough people believe and act on an indicator, the indicator remains valid. Happens with TA all t…
Reply to @Old_Joe: Certainly. As pointed out in the different cases in my post. Point is that the evaluation of a fund for a portfolio depends on the philosophy/strategy rather than absolutes such as too much cash level. Without that context, the st…
Somewhat bemused by this thread. A fund that has returned 20+% returns for the year may not survive? People base their decisions on how much cash a fund holds or doesn't?????
Don't people select funds to fit their investment philosophy/strategy? Fo…
Reply to @bee: Just a comment that UNG was not a good proxy for NG prices. It got wasted by contango. All commodities went down in the 2008-2009 meltdown. NG recovered in 2010 to head down again 2011-2012 like other commodities.
EIA.gov annual natu…
Reply to @fundalarm: You are absolutely correct in tying gold prices to inflation expectations.
Your explanation of negative carry applies to large scale investment stockpiling with liquidity requirements. This happened to Gold via funds that start…
There is a cult that gloats about gold. There are people who rub it in when it is going down precisely because of the cult following. Sort of like Apple and Android fans.
To me, people appear to be missing a bigger picture story of commodity market…
Reply to @Old_Skeet: Don't have a clue because I think valuation is now simply a measure of investor sentiment more related to behavioral finance than efficient markets and subject to flows of money in and out of broad indices rather than into or ou…
Reply to @DavidV: You might turn out to be right but then when people say 'this time it will be different...'
In my experience, corrections don't come labeled in advance as such. If they were, very few would sell and run. They come disguised in sen…
Seems like the 'rule of 20' broke down in the mid 90s suggesting other factors at play that affect multiples or more likely the curve fitting relationship was just an accidental one neither correlated nor causal. One could probably make a similar no…
This story is not going to end well. The flight to risk is only going to increase early next year when people get their annual performance reports. They will see their relatively meager returns - 6% or so for conservative allocation and 10-12% for m…
Reply to @Ted: Just make sure you don't link to any articles about Pope Francis (even if it turns out he has blessed index funds). He has been called the same things for pretty much the same reasons... except for the God-less part. :-)
Reply to @TNK: You are continuing to try to fit what he is saying into your narrow and flawed conception of capitalism and socialism which treats them as black and white situations. So unable to grasp his main thesis and the source of your broadbrus…
