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IMO, the S&P 500 is fully valued, but earnings forecasts are currently
being revised downward.........so I am thinking the S&P 500 is ready
for its usual 3 to 5 % re-tracement back to its 100 day moving average....
Seems like the S&P …
It would be a completely different story if the graphic were of sector funds and dated back beyond 15 years. Sector funds exhibit more trend persistency from one year to the next and extended periods of outperformance. Technology funds in the 80s …
>>>Asked on Thursday if he had any thoughts on Mr. Kahn, Warren Buffett —who also studied under Mr. Graham—joked, “I’d rather have Irving’s thoughts on longevity.”
PONDX a great fund for the conservative investor. As a not so conservative investor this fund lost its allure in the spring of 2013 and have never ventured back. Without checking I assume AUM have soared the past many years making it not as nimble.
Lumber/Timber, I have been hearing about some future acute shortage for decades. Just checked lumber prices in 1980. Looks like a double. Pretty miserly when compared to equities.
Edit: Correction: not even a double in price since 1980.
https://www.creditwritedowns.com/2009/10/jeremy-grantham-the-market-is-25-overvalued-15-correction-coming.html
These debates never have a winner as we are colored by our biases, me included. I have never been a fan of Jeremy Grantham of GMO. Whi…
@MFO Members: If you believe in GMO's 7-Year Real Return Forecast, I have a bridge for sale.
Regards,
Ted
Not just that but if you listen to *anyone's* forecast, 7 years or whatever. There are no "experts" in the forecasting or prediction business…
M* agrees with Junkster regarding potential upside for HY Junk this year though it seems to disagrees with Junkster's holding periods.
"No matter which vehicle investors choose for high-yield exposure, it's crucial that they have a long holding pe…
The corporate junk bond win streak continues. Merrill's H0A0 has been up for 24 consecutive days!
Hopefully we can make it to 25 as in pre market trading it is looking ugly for oil today.
@scott I'm just curious, if you will indulge me. How many individual stocks do you own at one time? You seem to have a good handle on why you invest in them, so I am not questioning your rationale or ability to track them.
Deleted my post - …
@Junkster - I hope we're both around in 20 years to compare the results. Pick your equities. You must be specific. For example, you can't say the S&P 500 because that changes over time. Unless the paper bill deteriorates both it and the gold bar…
I think the answer depends on one's definition of investment. For me, gold is a collectible just like any other perceived treasure. Let's say I put a $100 bar of gold and a $100 US paper bill in a can and bury it out in the back yard for 20 years. W…
If you're willing to go back thousands of years, the rate of return must be minuscule -- way, way under 1% annualized.
You must be looking at Jeremy Siegel's Stocks For The Long Run. There he shows inflation adjusted Total Real Return Indexes 1802-…
One of the traits of lucky people is "they nurture a basic core of pessimism so dense and tough and prickly that it startles you when you first come upon it.." From Max Gunther in The Luck Factor. What surprised Mr. Gunther when studying lucky and…
http://www.businessinsider.com/hedge-fund-performance-2014-11
The chart in the link above pretty much says it all. If 2009 were included it would be much worse.
Edit: Since this board is a cut above the rest (way above) I would think few if any …
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-09/hedge-funds-most-bearish-on-crude-in-4-years-after-rally-energy
Overnight, oil is trending slightly higher.
I don't know what the batting average of hedge funds is. If they think crude will correc…
Charles, you are among the nicest and most down to earth posters on this board. You never speak ill and always even tempered (unlike me sometimes) and when your holdings have a bad day you don't try and hide or make excuses. I for one hope you pro…
Markets are perverse and anticipatory. There was something more than meets the eye going on this week in the Treasuries/munis and the junk corporates. And it was all bad for the former and all good for the later.
the undoing of the deflation …
We can stop worrying - per Art Cashin
Pros: Jan. jobs report not enough for Fed rates hike
Markets are perverse and anticipatory. There was something more than meets the eye going on this week in the Treasuries/munis and the junk corporates. An…
Dex, the price in the open end junk muni funds since the beginning of the month and the NAV of HYD and HYMB since the beginning of the month. And today is not looking good either for that sector. This may be much ado about nothing. But I couldn't …
Right, so here's the allure...
Basically, investing with Bruce the past 15 years means you have more than quadrupled your investment since FAIRX inception. You've earned 11.7% per year!
Who has beaten that? Suspect very few.
But you are absol…
Hi @fundalarm
I was reading through this thread again and looked again at PIMIX and its current holdings as of its last posting. This and its cousin, PONDX have a much different mix of holdings from the previous several years. The overwhelming major…
This thread was worrisome enough from a contrarian point of view and now today's action. Up to 19% in corp junk and looking to go 25% by the close depending on the rest of the day.
I have built up a nice nest egg over time and not because I am smart or skilled (actually probably the opposite) But by concentrating solely on trend persistency combined with LOW Volatility. That has enabled me to go 100% all in whatever and abst…
Not to keep beating the same drum but since January of 2014 (13 months ago) it's been junk muni bond funds. But for some unfathomable reason, and much to my delight, investors have always (like forever) seemed to have had a problem embracing anyt…
@Junkster. Just kidding. I like your style - though at your age I'd suggest more hiking, etc. and less trading. Just a thought.
I've done more trading in the open-ended funds than is good either for me or for the fiduciary. I keep a log and always …
T Rowe banned me in the early 90s. They are among the strictest. Others don't really care. I realize it's a sore subject on a buy and hold board because of driving up the operating expenses. But it was the only way I could make a living and now …
junkster: where can you make hundreds of trades annually in OEFs (i assume) and not get banned when it's short term? i just sold two funds at scottrade that i'd held less than 90 days and got two warning letters as a result.
I have had *well* over …
Good grief, folks! I was really only kidding Junkster- had NO intention of starting an end-of-the-world discussion!
I knew that and thought your post was a scream. Some here take themselves far too seriously!!!!!
Scott, forums are full of Pretenders. Maybe not this one as much as the trading forums but there are lots of Pretenders out there making all sorts of unverifiable claims. Posting trades on an internet forum is pretty meaningless as you never know …
Stealth bull market in junk corporates? I hope! 10% there but adding, albeit still mostly all in junk munis with less than 3% in RIMIX. Everything as always on a tight leash. In Max Gunther's The Luck Factor one of his five key precepts is " The…
Stealth bull market in junk corporates? I hope! 10% there but adding, albeit still mostly all in junk munis with less than 3% in RIMIX. Everything as always on a tight leash. In Max Gunther's The Luck Factor one of his five key precepts is " The…
I have his autograph on a baseball. After he retired he was associated with Sears (fishing I believe as he was a real good fisherman too) and my father being in management there arranged a face to face meeting in his office when Ted was at the sto…
Ted Williams always my idol and we can only imagine his career and single season stats had he not missed seasons during World War II AND the Korean conflict. How many more batting crowns would he have won? He won two when he was 39 and 40 in 1957…
I just don't understand why you don't understand. When the whole thing falls apart, as will surely happen pretty soon now, you can take your gold and silver to the supermarket and trade it for stuff because they won't accept money anymore. When you …
Never have and never will understand the allure of commodities and gold and silver. The later two seemingly in the domain of the doomsters. But then I am admittedly biased!!
