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Dex, in 2008 the average open end junk muni fund lost 25.27%. HYD wasn't around then but since it underforms the open end funds the loss would have been more. The safe haven is Treasuries and to a lesser extent high grade munis. Still, as you said…
How about this for a scenario? Everyone is talking about how a handful of stocks are holding up the averages and this being the case, the bear is about to pounce. If it did, though, it'd be the most highly advertised bear in (my own admittedly fog…
There doesn't seem to be much panic here in light of a very ugly market. Meanwhile, junk bonds (sometimes a precursor to the equity markets) have been down, down, and down since 5/31. I can't predict any better than the man in the moon. But a real…
Dex - Where'd all that negative thinking ever get you?
Positive I'm making money in HYD.
Junk munis looking good again that's for sure. Last night decided to buy some MMIIX today but in hindsight should have bought yesterday.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=spflx&insttype=&freq=&show=
Dex, the chart from the link above is a better visual of its trend persistency in 2015. The two steep declines are from its twice annual divide…
Late last year, we experienced (what was perceived as) a negative credit risk event. More macro and "anticipatory" than anything specific, it did cause junk corporates to pull back (nicely, IMO). What wasn't widely noted was the response of bank loa…
Ted, they only told me it was available in 20 states and would not be available in KY anytime soon, if ever. So did not go any further with the conversation.
QLENX doing rather well, too. +10.5% YTD. SPFLX is interesting, thanks for pointing it out.
Thanks Scott, I just edited my header to say bank loan fund. I don't do "groupthink" funds and thought all AQR funds were in the mode of AQRIX/AQRNX - an u…
Grantham as in Jeremy Grantham? Now there's a perma bear for you. He thought the market was 25% overvalued in October 2009 and the best we could wish for were meager equity returns going forward. Then again, maybe not a true perma bear. Real per…
>>>>Ed's argument: all three asset classes might be subject to sharp, sustained declines over, say, the next decade. As a deep value investor, he's pretty much appalled by what he sees as a fundamental disconnect between corporate prospe…
I see a lot of small cap biotechs down 5% to 10% today including two I held as recently as last week. I am down to only one now (IG) and may well get shaken out of that today. Heavens forbid if we have a negative reaction to tomorrow's employment …
The question should be when to sell funds. Far too much time and effort is wasted on the buying aspects while little to no time is spent on exits. To quote two famous designers of trading and investing systems (loosely and in my own words) " the…
Investments often are either overwhelmed by upward momentum (euphoria) or downward momentum (fear). When this happens in the short term (because investments will often return to the historical mean) I try to pay close attention to price.
Price lea…
>>>I continue to maintain that most of the "alternative" products avail to retail investors are marketing gimmicks -- marketed to rationalize charging excessive E/Rs, and excessively complex in their strategy -- making them prone to executi…
"We can still do that you know. "
@Junkster: And indeed I try. Weekends at the Russian River place- reading, snoozing, watching the birds and squirrels, eating, drinking, music. No internet, no TV.
Glad to see your have your priorities in the right…
>>>>There are days when I want to be back in the 1950's as a child playing in the forest and nearby creek; and to remain oblivious to the nasty world awaiting me.
Since we're cherry picking data, holding PRPFX since 2000 would have yielded 7.7% CAGR vs 4.3% for SPY. Better sharpe, half the volatility and draw down as well.
Holding GLD since its inception has a slightly better return than SPY with roughly …
Interesting to me is that in the past some posters recommended gold, as a long term investment. They called gold and precious metals a diversifier to one's portfolio. A holding of 5-10% was considered a necessary weight to impact the portfolio to …
Market breath peaked in April 1998 before the major decline began in March 2000. And back then it was just a handful of tech stocks that accounted for the big gains in late 98 to the final top. Not sure when breath peaked this time around. The ne…
From 2013 going forward couldn't begin to list the small cap biotechs stocks I've owned that have gone up 4 fold to 5 fold and even more, yet made next to nothing. Two that are burned in my mind are NPSP bought around 9 taken over at 45 and HZNP bo…
Did you answer this? I missed it.
>> I am in no mood for ... even a 1.5% or 2% decline.
So how do you equity-invest at all if you do not ever want to see a 1.5% decline ?
That's a 1.5% to 2% decline in my total account balance. So I keep no …
I had been buying HZNP recently on any down day. But yesterday lost that discipline and sold some instead of adding because I became spooked by the weakness in the overall market. That cost me today as it's up almost 5% this morning.
My plan as always is to take what the market gives and can ramp up quickly if necessary. It hasn't been very giving lately so hence the cash. Yes, I know conventional wisdom says you can't time the market and I couldn't agree more. But I look at …
I don't like another large cap biotech GILD one bit. But I said that when it was at $100 and that doesn't exactly make me a bright bulb. Scott has been right on there so far. In 2016 revenue growth and earnings growth at GILD is projected by analy…
I don't have any junk bond funds because of the recent price action. And junk bond funds could well be on their way to only their fourth negative year (1994, 2000, 2008) since the Michael Milken fiasco in 1989/90. I would love to see a mini crash …
If the chart included the the late 70s and the 80s and 90s, it's a totally different picture. One thing I learned as a futures broker in the 70s is never buy commodities, not even as a hedge. I can't tell you how many end of the world fanatics I h…
Obviously if you want to be a doctor, lawyer, or Indian Chief, meaning specialized training is mandatory, a college and advanced degrees are a must. It is also a must for many more mundane occupations where you can't even get in the door without …
Assuming you are talking about an immediate fixed income annuity, the biggest disadvantage are the low record interest rates and hence they aren't paying out much of anything. The way to go is a longevity annuity aka deferred income annuity. Howev…
Back to small cap biotech albeit so far only around 2% to 3% with the rest in cash for the moment. My fave is HZNP and bought that after their offer for DEPO Tuesday where I had a position and sold. Stocks are not my thing. I can pick em but sure …
Many thanks bee. I thought I had read everything on the topic of QLACs but your link was a new one for me. I had never thought of the staggered approach so will have to do some computations on that.
>>>This thread gets me back to a theme I've been posting on (some might say excessively) lately - guaranteed income streams. Whether from immediate annuities, SS, or longevity insurance, they do help to relieve concern about needing to save…
Didn't read the link. But just from personal experience, I can't think of anything that has had a more favorable impact on me financially than not having a mortgage. I realize though that is not feasible for many, especially younger folks.
>>>High-Yield Bond Funds: Don’t make the mistake of focusing on interest rates and missing a potentially bigger problem for bond fund prices — credit risk. High-yield bond funds are providing great yields for investors in a low-yield enviro…
I have given annuities a lot of thought recently in my retirement planning. The only that ones that make half way sense are deferred annuities. And there especially the ones where the recent Treasury rule allows you to exempt up to $125,000 in yo…
I tried this calculator for N=10 (payments to age 95) and came up with 7.61% rate.
With N = 5 (payments to age 90), the return is 4.49%.
Thanks - neither of those returns seem very interesting.
Many thanks msf for your usual exhaustive and ex…
