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Many of the prices today at/near the lows were illusions and because of bid/ask spreads etc were only available if you were investing in a make believe account.
I would think the one thing that could cause the greatest decline in the market is not China but more pain in the energy markets. More pain would be greater than expected bankruptcies and then a rout in the junk market. As much as we have heard ab…
Up today and up for the week and way ahead of its category which was a loser. Never been more frustrated since I am unable to purchase it here in KY. Then again am even more frustrated in that I have a small position in another bank loan fund I wou…
You have options with this product as with any annuity, But the highest monthly payout is no death rider and no inflation rider just the plain vanilla QLAC. And you are paid for your lifetime. Should I pass before I collect it really won't matte…
Not sure if the below was linked but answers a lot of questions on the three firms that offers QLACs through Fidelity and more. I also like the annuity calculator below. Looks like maximum age is 82 to purchase one. Personally, would take benefits…
Below is a more informative video on this new product. New York Life will be jumping into the QLAC fray next year. When I turn 70 in 2017 that is where I will be putting my $125,000. I will begin taking my benefits at age 80 - God willing. I hav…
From the below it appears Mr Grantham has had a bearish bent on U.S. stocks for a long time. Since 1994 if the first link is to be believed. On that first link scroll all the way to the bottom for some of his comments and predictions. I am sorry …
As you say "imperfectly" as WARAX is a stinker. Correct me if I am wrong but GBMFX is GMO's flagship fund. Not exactly a wealth creation machine, especially the past five years where it has underpeformed in its category.
http://www.morningstar.co…
GMO has had a terrible forecasting record since 2009 (and most likely before) They always have a bearish bent. Grantham is always talking up timber. Here's a 40+ year chart for lumber. Rule # xx for creating wealth, stay as far away from commod…
Dex, in 2008 the average open end junk muni fund lost 25.27%. HYD wasn't around then but since it underforms the open end funds the loss would have been more. The safe haven is Treasuries and to a lesser extent high grade munis. Still, as you said…
How about this for a scenario? Everyone is talking about how a handful of stocks are holding up the averages and this being the case, the bear is about to pounce. If it did, though, it'd be the most highly advertised bear in (my own admittedly fog…
There doesn't seem to be much panic here in light of a very ugly market. Meanwhile, junk bonds (sometimes a precursor to the equity markets) have been down, down, and down since 5/31. I can't predict any better than the man in the moon. But a real…
Dex - Where'd all that negative thinking ever get you?
Positive I'm making money in HYD.
Junk munis looking good again that's for sure. Last night decided to buy some MMIIX today but in hindsight should have bought yesterday.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=spflx&insttype=&freq=&show=
Dex, the chart from the link above is a better visual of its trend persistency in 2015. The two steep declines are from its twice annual divide…
Late last year, we experienced (what was perceived as) a negative credit risk event. More macro and "anticipatory" than anything specific, it did cause junk corporates to pull back (nicely, IMO). What wasn't widely noted was the response of bank loa…
Ted, they only told me it was available in 20 states and would not be available in KY anytime soon, if ever. So did not go any further with the conversation.
QLENX doing rather well, too. +10.5% YTD. SPFLX is interesting, thanks for pointing it out.
Thanks Scott, I just edited my header to say bank loan fund. I don't do "groupthink" funds and thought all AQR funds were in the mode of AQRIX/AQRNX - an u…
Grantham as in Jeremy Grantham? Now there's a perma bear for you. He thought the market was 25% overvalued in October 2009 and the best we could wish for were meager equity returns going forward. Then again, maybe not a true perma bear. Real per…
>>>>Ed's argument: all three asset classes might be subject to sharp, sustained declines over, say, the next decade. As a deep value investor, he's pretty much appalled by what he sees as a fundamental disconnect between corporate prospe…
I see a lot of small cap biotechs down 5% to 10% today including two I held as recently as last week. I am down to only one now (IG) and may well get shaken out of that today. Heavens forbid if we have a negative reaction to tomorrow's employment …
The question should be when to sell funds. Far too much time and effort is wasted on the buying aspects while little to no time is spent on exits. To quote two famous designers of trading and investing systems (loosely and in my own words) " the…
Investments often are either overwhelmed by upward momentum (euphoria) or downward momentum (fear). When this happens in the short term (because investments will often return to the historical mean) I try to pay close attention to price.
Price lea…
>>>I continue to maintain that most of the "alternative" products avail to retail investors are marketing gimmicks -- marketed to rationalize charging excessive E/Rs, and excessively complex in their strategy -- making them prone to executi…
"We can still do that you know. "
@Junkster: And indeed I try. Weekends at the Russian River place- reading, snoozing, watching the birds and squirrels, eating, drinking, music. No internet, no TV.
Glad to see your have your priorities in the right…
>>>>There are days when I want to be back in the 1950's as a child playing in the forest and nearby creek; and to remain oblivious to the nasty world awaiting me.
Since we're cherry picking data, holding PRPFX since 2000 would have yielded 7.7% CAGR vs 4.3% for SPY. Better sharpe, half the volatility and draw down as well.
Holding GLD since its inception has a slightly better return than SPY with roughly …
Interesting to me is that in the past some posters recommended gold, as a long term investment. They called gold and precious metals a diversifier to one's portfolio. A holding of 5-10% was considered a necessary weight to impact the portfolio to …
Market breath peaked in April 1998 before the major decline began in March 2000. And back then it was just a handful of tech stocks that accounted for the big gains in late 98 to the final top. Not sure when breath peaked this time around. The ne…
From 2013 going forward couldn't begin to list the small cap biotechs stocks I've owned that have gone up 4 fold to 5 fold and even more, yet made next to nothing. Two that are burned in my mind are NPSP bought around 9 taken over at 45 and HZNP bo…
Did you answer this? I missed it.
>> I am in no mood for ... even a 1.5% or 2% decline.
So how do you equity-invest at all if you do not ever want to see a 1.5% decline ?
That's a 1.5% to 2% decline in my total account balance. So I keep no …
I had been buying HZNP recently on any down day. But yesterday lost that discipline and sold some instead of adding because I became spooked by the weakness in the overall market. That cost me today as it's up almost 5% this morning.
My plan as always is to take what the market gives and can ramp up quickly if necessary. It hasn't been very giving lately so hence the cash. Yes, I know conventional wisdom says you can't time the market and I couldn't agree more. But I look at …
I don't like another large cap biotech GILD one bit. But I said that when it was at $100 and that doesn't exactly make me a bright bulb. Scott has been right on there so far. In 2016 revenue growth and earnings growth at GILD is projected by analy…
I don't have any junk bond funds because of the recent price action. And junk bond funds could well be on their way to only their fourth negative year (1994, 2000, 2008) since the Michael Milken fiasco in 1989/90. I would love to see a mini crash …
If the chart included the the late 70s and the 80s and 90s, it's a totally different picture. One thing I learned as a futures broker in the 70s is never buy commodities, not even as a hedge. I can't tell you how many end of the world fanatics I h…
Obviously if you want to be a doctor, lawyer, or Indian Chief, meaning specialized training is mandatory, a college and advanced degrees are a must. It is also a must for many more mundane occupations where you can't even get in the door without …
