Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Hi Mark,
I'm sure you know all this already, but... It uses derivatives to get exposure to both the stock and bond market with the same money, so it's leveraged, in a way -- and when both the stock and bond markets get hit, it will take a hit on bo…
A few countries and companies have successfully issued "century bonds" with 100 year maturities, so sure, this could work. Even Petrobras did a few years back. It's all part of that bond game where a whole lot of investors don't plan to hold most of…
just go slow and keep your required reserves in cash. For me that's 50% right now but mainly because my other allocations have shrunk do to price declines!
Yup. I've found the cash % of my portfolio rising significantly over the past month... since…
@Old_Joe Even if the coronavirus hadn't come, you wouldn't have been stupid. There's a great value in not being greedy and taking stress out of your life, if you can afford it. Good on you.
I hope that you're keeping safe in SF!
I'm curious where all these various estimates of a bottom come from. We're still above 2016 levels in the market, and does anyone think that the current economic outlook is rosier than in 2016? (That's not a rhetorical question. Is there a case for …
I've been debating whether to just buy GPGCX or instead buy a mix of GPGCX and SIVLX with some of my dry powder. This quote makes me lean to the latter.
Don't know if that Schiller p/e really applies in the age of zero interest rates. Even in a recession, at some point people want the hope of some kind of return, no? But I too think the bottom will end up somewhere below the levels of last week... T…
We're already at the target (2500 on the S&P) that I set for my dry powder at the start of this mess, but I'm afraid to pull the trigger. I probably will start to scale in soon-ish. Though I can't see any short-term triggers for a meltup, and I …
@rforno. That makes sense. They have similar mandates (dividend growth) and near identical performance over every time period, and VIG's cheaper for me to buy at Schwab, which is why I'm considering it. But yes, I'm leery of ETFs too.
I noticed that too, but I'm planning on buying, hopefully sometime soon if the markets keep falling. It's hard to avoid this kind of storm, but a well-diversified global fund with some smart quants running it seems worth a 21 basis-point ER to me.
The virus doesn't have to be all that deadly to severely disrupt economic activity. One person gets it in a factory, then even if he eventually recovers, for a while no one's going to work. With all our intricate supply chains, even after Factory A …
Great list, and many thanks for putting it together. But we've gone this decade without a bear market or recession, so I wonder if these funds will be as successful next decade.
Thanks for letting us know this, David, and for bringing this valuable fund to light in the first place. I've got a small stake in my taxable account, but I've been waiting for a chance to get it in my solo 401K, where right now I've got a lot of ca…
@old_skeet, I'm more of an observer than a participant on this site, because I don't feel that I have much wisdom to share -- but you most certainly do, and I always look forward to your barometer and other updates. Thank you for sharing your insigh…
1.45% means that many blue chip stocks & blue chip ETFs have higher dividend yields than long-term bonds. (SCHD offers 2.9%, even VIG is higher, 1.74%.)
I guess everyone is assuming the market's going to crash and they can get better prices lat…
Wow, he's repeating his call that 10 year Treasuries might hit 6% by 2021... Looks like Trump will leave his successor a sh*t sandwich. His standard business practice, it seems.
Tariffs and the growing trade wars have a lot to do with investments right now, arguably more than anything else. I don't own India-specific investments but I found this highly relevant to my investment thinking. @catch22, many thanks for posting.
Fascinating article, thanks for posting. Yet DSENX/DSEEX, which seems to basically function on sector rotation toward undervalued sector, has been a superlative performer.
@guster1212 Thanks for bringing this fund up. I'd never heard of it before. It seems to offer the returns for the REIT index, - expenses, + whatever bond returns Gundlach can provide. Looks like a pretty good bet for beating the REIT index, based on…
Though I'm still a proud "lib" I did as @johnN did and moved somewhere cheaper: Albuquerque, New Mexico. Here, no need to go to the suburbs if you don't want.
I just (January) bought a 2200 square foot house, in a great school district, 2.5 blocks …
Considering adding to GPIOX, but just plotted out performance vs VMVFX and it looks like VMVFX did just as well in the good years, and outperformed massively last year. (Not apples to apples, since GPIOX is just international & smaller cap, but …
Ned Davis, a quant shop whose research I read through Schwab -- and who has a pretty good track record -- are making a call similar to @Simon. Their forecast is for a bear market without a recession, which is why they expect the bear to be brief.
I…
I am lousy at market timing, as I seem to have to re-learn every few years, but these massive drops & fast bounce-backs remind me of 2008, when the bottom was still a ways off.
But it also seems to me that a lot of stocks are good long-term buy…
This fund has been on my radar for years -- thanks for calling attention to it again. Its holdings are really interesting: mostly megacap consumer goods & technology, with a number of foreign companies & even a high-yield bond or two thrown …
"actually, many would argue the opposite, that bad actors do not have longterm or lasting effects on the general markets"
Tell that to investors in Venezuela after Hugo Chavez took power.
Actually, I agree with you, I don't think that the Mango Mu…