Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Winter will be grim but the pandemic's end is in sight, and all sorts of economic data is looking promising (housing starts, car sales, plus lots of money in savings accounts). I've been steadily buying and am now up to 80% equities. I mostly bought…
This bear just threw part of his towel in. I put a quarter of my cash to work, bringing me from 50% to 62% or so equities. I'll be dollar averaging the rest in over the next year, unless we finally do get that correction of my dreams first.
So... Is this the signal to go all in, as economy normalizes while interest rates stay zero? Or the sign that good news is all priced in and we're likely at a top?
@carew388 So I guess the market prefers continued low taxes to a big stimulus package. Maybe makes sense: would probably mean another slow recovery with years of zero interest rates. Or maybe short-term market moves don't mean much?
@RisklessinSeattle I actually think this thread has been thoughtful, informative, and polite, with posters frankly exchanging questions and answers and genuinely trying to learn and help each other.
Maybe the rule should be, if you must go off topi…
Thanks for the link, Mark. Lyn Alden Schwartzer always strikes me as smart and thoughtful. I'm trying to swear off buying individual stocks, but EPD does look interesting.
A new fund from a top shop, with managers with a good track record elsewhere... this one is on my list to ponder, especially if its opening coincides with a dip.
If Yardeni (or the street consensus) is right, market is trading at about 19 times 2022 earnings. What do I know, but with interest rates set at zero through 2023, that doesn't seem crazy to me.
Like @davfor, I enjoyed Old_Skeet's measured, courteous comments on investing even as his comments & his tone when discussing politics disturbed me. A good reason IMHO why we should all keep politics to a minimum on the board. Even if permitted …
Hi @MikeM, vaccine disappointment would definitely be #1 on the list!
Other possibilities:
2. This V shaped recovery turns into a W, either because stimulus peters out or we get a second wave like the Spanish flu.
3. A disputed result in the pres…
@Old_Skeet and @Puddnhead, if a dip does come, do either of you have a level for the S&P at which you could consider it a buying opportunity? I am trying indeed to get a plan...
@hank, I think you make very good sense, but here's another option: continued strong earnings from the tech giants due their monopoly power + unlimited liquidity from the Fed + TINA + big fiscal stimulus from a Biden administration keeps this curren…
Retail sales last month were above their pre-pandemic level, despite out of control pandemic. I guess if Trump will accept the gift Pelosi is offering and keep the stimulus coming, the stock market may start to look cheap.
One of the great What Ifs of American history, IMHO, is what if Lincoln hadn't replaced Hamlin with Andrew Johnson. Then, if Lincoln were still assassinated, a pro-Reconstruction VP, in line with Lincoln's own thinking, would have taken office, inst…
I think Pelosi won't give him a stimulus deal without funding for the post office. I also don't think this is going to play well with the public. People like getting their mail on time. They usually like postal workers too.
Getting back to investments, maybe Biden's picking Kamala is supporting the markets. She's super close to Silicon Valley, so it's a sign that a Biden administration won't crack down on the tech giants.
@msf, Trump surely intends his offer to buy votes, but by promising to end the payroll tax, he's in practice promising to end Social Security, which payroll taxes fund. I'm sure he's too ill-informed to know that, but I have my doubts as to how well…
He's "deferring" the payroll tax until end of the year. So everyone owes the same as always, in theory they'll just get one big bill 12/31 (or January 2, I guess.) I say in theory, because if I'm a business, I'm going to keep withholding same as alw…
As @Old_Skeet put it, the problem may only arrive "When the FOMC stops buying." They've made clear that won't be for years. I've got no crystal ball and am hoping for a dip or even crash so I can out some dry powder to work, but free money is a pret…
Personally, I'd love a plunge since I'm sitting on (for me) a lot of dry powder, but this guy Gary Schilling is a permabear, if you google him you'll see he's been calling for a crash since, well, forever.
You nailed it, @JoJo26. Trump and his team are notoriously close to Pelosi, so of course they slipped her the word, and not to any of the finance types who donate heavily to his campaign. It's only logical.
Day before the announcement on Kodak, trading went up to about 15X normal.
Great to see insider trading made great again. Crony capitalism at its best.
@msf, thanks, you always provide practical, wise, and helpful info.
In my case, I'm trying to make all new investments in a solo 401K that has a different tax ID than my personal SS, so the process you describe might not work. They're no load / no…
