Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
@dt, @larryB, et al.: I'm in Treasury bills and not CDs, but the decision-making structure is about the same. For now I've passed on the fairly tempting 2y T and haven't replaced bills with bills, but instead have been stuffing maturing T's into a 4…
Good response by Former Mayor Pete, not letting him get away with blaming the FAA instead of 'fessing up to United's greed and incompetence. Which in my modest experience with them, has been the M.O. there long term.
Here's the 6/30 Real Yield -- a divergence in views about the direction of intermediate/long Treasuries and how big a deal the apparent rolling over of several econ measures is.
@Crash, looks like that was the 6/23 program you posted last. (It was…
That's a particularly good RY; all four guests were right out there with their opinions on how to play the current situation, no on the one hand this, on the other that, kind of talk.
Continuing focus on the short end of the T market, a little ext…
and a better measure, super corehttps://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/16/opinion/core-inflation-statistics.html
Excellent column. Last graf is incisive, and "fossil statistic" is a keeper of a concept.
... news organizations should stop playing up estima…
There are 2 categories, FR-inv-grade (Treasury FRNs, others), FR/BL-junk.
Exactly my point. Seems some may have assumed the Wealthfront figure applies to FR/BL junk, and it doesn't.
BTW, the volatility table per category is deceiving. We have learned since 2020 that volatility is unpredictable in market meltdowns. Sometimes the indexes which trade during the day show more volatility.
I had a look at the text explanation of thos…
Junkster: "Yet one of the few pure plays on commercial real estate in the open end bond universe is doing just fine YTD and far outperforming cash."
Yep, allocation and security selection matters. Pimco's outlook webcast yesterday cited a mixed bag…
There is now an etf for the anti-esg. It's called ORFN.
It opened in May 2022, and closure/liquidation was announced last Friday due to "inability to attract sufficient investment assets."
Will we be in another decade where a good manager, deploying a multi-sector bond approach, provides equity like returns from a collection of bonds... with a lot less volatility?
That sounds like their contention, for five years anyway. (And another …
Thanks for the info. Will catch up with the article that follows later.
There is an article on it out now, but seems to be mostly a summary. The slide deck is the meat of it, must not be on the site yet. The Aftershock Economy.
Good idea on FLOT, @Sven. I didn't realize it's investment grade, primarily corporate, per M* ... a completely different animal from junk loans, a la BKLN, SRLN, and equivalent OEFs (what Yogi was warning about above).
FLOT's objective, from the is…
Love the John Oliver form of investigative journalism. On the subject of housing dystopia, his HOA show is just as incisive and darkly humorous. HOAs, Last Week Tonight.
Haven't heard that one in a while. Saw Joan B. sing it in the local cultural center auditorium on her last tour. Encore was the whole audience singing Amazing Grace with her. Magnificent.
I get those "click this link to restore your account" attempted scams every once in a while. Thing is, the address of the sender never includes the domain name of the company they're claiming to represent.
Interesting. Fidelity took them off their list of available Treasuries and TD has killed the CUSIP links on the Upcoming Auctions page. If Treasury can't make the call well before 10a on Monday, it might not be all that successful. Depends on the Se…
NYT reports this: "The Treasury announced on Thursday that it would delay auctions of three-month and six-month “bills” — short-term debt that the government no longer has room to take on until the borrowing cap is suspended."
Presumably that means…
I saw somewhere they were frantically trying to get every department and bureau to tell them exactly how much they had in obligations to pay out over the very short term. Maybe their earlier estimates fell short that much when they put all that info…
A "cash management" bill offering: yup, to put it mildly. Treasury must need the $25B to bridge to the June 5 x-day.
It's been added to the TD Upcoming Auctions page.
Treasury may need more accounting employees before the next debt ceiling fiasco.
Good one; getting four voices into the mix sure seems like a winner, better nearly every week.
BB loans - that was a surprise.
P.S. I'm watching the 1y and 2y Treasury yields and hoping they last till the next auctions.
@Observant1. I paid my Estimated Tax due in June early to help the government delay the default. Hope it helps.
My Es-tax won't cover very many SSec checks, but I'm planning on doing the same thing this week.
(a) It'd be best to invoke the 14th before a default, as a way of avoiding one ... like the language suggests.
(b) The SC-5/6 have shown they can "creatively" justify anything they want, constitution and precedent be damned. Ayatollah Alito may be…
WaPo: The FreeDumb caucus calls on McCarthy to "suspend debt negotiations" and focus on getting the House's previously passed bill through the Senate.
“There should be no further discussion until the Senate passes the legislation,” a statement fro…
WIth the Treasuries, remember that they are state tax exempt. That could mean a lot (around half a percent of net yield) in a high tax state.
Right, and there may be more downstream benefits too. In my state, and probably others, there is a ref…
Yes, I have some $ in etf's BOND and IEF. I'm not putting $ in OEFs now; I did like you and had some decent $ in Pimco Income in the early part of the year, but decided I was early and sold at ~ breakeven. I have most of the portfolio in T bills now…
No one on either side really desires that other than possibly the political extremes.
ONE political extreme in the House appears to be comfortable with the idea, and they have McCarthy by the huevos. (There is NO radical left remotely like the radi…
I like the new 2+2 format. They might need to parcel out the time more equally between the first and second segments, though.
Good focus this time toward expectations out a ways in time, especially for the credit market.
Especially, in early November, after the Democrats lost their comfortable majority of the House, they should have made this issue a top priority in the remaining two months of the legislative session. After all, it was well known what the Republica…
