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davidrmoran
I myself see a big pullback coming in the next six months but I don’t know that I have ever been correct over 45 years. I will put a lot of money in if a 10% pullback comes. I expect you r being prudent depending on how old you are. The thing is, if you’re young, you might as well stick it out and not try to time. He said.
High valuations has never been a cause for bear markets.
This is weak gruel for Stewart, and it is incredible he links it in any way to the election (when the whole world has done the same), but has some good quotes:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/0…
~2y of cash (say) would leave ~$450k; how to get $24k/y out of that with a fine mix of fine bond funds? >5% is needed.
When I run 'money last' calculators, it does not show making it to age 70. (6% return, 2.5% inflation, 10% fed marginal brack…
I avoided mentioning PONDX because I was trying to envision worst-case scenarios going forward. I concur in the take that the longterm future is unlikely to be like the bull past we have enjoyed. Looking chiefly at GOs' UI in Premium, I still think …
@LB, by equity-aggressive I meant proportionally, not the holdings themselves. I would avoid foreign for this person.
VWINX looks like the choice, yes. Interesting its UI is high-ish (greater than VOOG and DSENX, e.g.).
If someone was 'managing' &…
I am not understanding why anyone would recommend global or even look at what we think of as conventional diversification. Seems to me what is wanted here is as equity-aggressive as feasible, but nonpeculative, meaning, solid companies, experienced …
FPURX is my vote.
It would be great to go even more conservative but he has to get 24k or so from this investment of 500k. Do you know anything about lifespan projection; is it affected by the disability? Are we talking a normal 45y ahead, or somet…
Nice writeup, though at least some of the 'undignified' reason is related to the same reasons many men don't wear ties to concerts or church anymore, imo.
>> Random numbers don't have to average zero. You can have a random distribution around any value you want, say 11%/year returns. So a rising market can still be entirely random.
Sure; there's such a thing as a good shooter. But 'random distr…
rates of increase slowing significantly; this is real news if it persists
https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/u-s-spending-healthcare-changed-time/#item-health-spending-growth-slowed-now-pace-economic-growth_2017
Synopsis (Breyer worked for Ted K), typical pros and cons and overreaction to gov intrusiveness:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2011-01-20/airline-deregulation-revisitedbusinessweek-business-news-stock-market-and-financial-advice
Interesting if (let us say) the market is adaptive and not random in the long run (rises) that there is always so much writing about mean regression.
OT,
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/30/opinion/the-gamblers-ruin-of-small-cities-wonkish.html
Right, the equities market is not gambler's ruin
>> it's just as likely to be a very good (but not great) year as it is likely to be a bad one.
Are there nonrandom situations where one should not conclude this? Not a well-phrased thought, I…
k
>> varies by how hot the hand is.
Right. So the wolfram 'extreme event is likely to be followed by less-extreme one' is both accurate and not very specifically useful. While 'unitlessness' makes for learning problems (me).
You read 53…
@msf
>> it seems that the magnitude of the "randomness" of next year's return depends on this year's return,
is this not typically the case when speaking of a recent regression?
I guess it is a point worth exploring, where point is the cr…
haha, so seemingly true
See the bean machine and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean
Tougher than the Wolfram explan :)
and this:
The notion of random motion in a potential well is elemental in the physical sciences and bey…
It was I who initially misemphasized / misfocused on require, but yes, regardless, something is unrevealed here, surely, and while I am not as strict as many about anecdote posting, this is so wack that one must be careful not to directly and blindl…
?
Always look both ways crossing the street, or reading articles. Always wear a seatbelt. Draw your sword only when you intend to use it. Yes, first sentence is stupid.
Pardon my not staying informed, but how does a 17yo "require" an individual plan? Does it mean she's parentless and living w/ grandparent on Medicare, or guardian?
It will be interesting to see the details on trumpcare premiums over the next months, where and for whom.
@Press, I was sorry to read about that high deductible but am really v sorry about the med required, christ, and hope your investments catch …
@DS,
k, point taken, I guess.
I did not read Rice Delman so episodically and implicatively and glossily as you, but maybe that's because for years I have been hearing him whinge on about the long term.
>> From 2000-2010, the market's net r…
@OJ, nah, all those rightwingnuts w power and means and opportunity are appalled at this pathetic, clever guy. The Kochs and most of the others. Now, you sure would be right to say they are not by any means overlooking such a golden opportunity to l…
Not physical shortcomings and not only spoiled upbringing. Lots of us have those things, and more. The modeled efficacy of brutality coupled with helpless rage and perverse rewards / disincentives, plus innate temperament of course, those are speci…
Oh, as always, it goes deeper and simpler, to his parents and early experience of ruthlessness, what it means to show authentic feeling, and what happened when you did; what that modeling was, what the maternal experience was, all bundled w excess …
even worse, it is helping as an expanded gov program
bwahaha, who woulda thought?
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/26/us/politics/republicans-trump-affordable-care-act-obamacare.html
note the tagline
More, and the last two paragraphs are priceles…
@LB1,
regardless, we for sure do not want a 'pure democracy' without compulsory voting, and maybe not ever. You have read enough civics text to know that, I bet.
>> down 30% then up 50% gives you (a) an ulcer, (b) vertigo, and (c) a net gain of 5% over the complete cycle
Hmm, not sure his way of looking at it is not more useful, maybe even more accurate. Yo-yoing while walking up a hill seems to captu…
Right
But as the wapo piece and so many others make clear, it is overwhelmingly reactionary resentment at condescension (real or perceived, doesn't matter) and the like.
An awful lot of it is racial fear mixed in; this is fully demonstrated.
R…
