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davidrmoran
I myself see a big pullback coming in the next six months but I don’t know that I have ever been correct over 45 years. I will put a lot of money in if a 10% pullback comes. I expect you r being prudent depending on how old you are. The thing is, if you’re young, you might as well stick it out and not try to time. He said.
@Ted, people corn or pig corn?
Meanwhile, worsening for others:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/19/us/politics/farming-trump-trade-war.html
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DscxvhbV4AEQ1Ps.jpg:large
and, oops, its relationship to business behaviors and to economic vitality is beyond sketchy:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/15/opinion/tax-cut-fail-trump.html
I found this disinterested equity orientation and review useful
https://piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/stock-market-correction-context-are-equities-cheap-or-expensive
and how the 'taxcut' is actually working:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/12/business/economy/trumps-tax-cut-was-supposed-to-change-corporate-behavior-heres-what-happened.html
doubling down --- Ted, how are you faring?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-12/frozen-out-of-china-american-farmers-refuse-to-sell-their-soy
>> don't give me the standard bullshit line about how I should not be concerned about a single day's performance. PRWCX is my biggest holding. The rest of the Market zoomed up on Nov 1st. PRWCX was FLAT.
>> Um... WTF? I understand the f…
this is droll
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trumponomics-101-blame-the-evil-and-ruinous-democrats/2018/10/30/e0858170-dc7c-11e8-b3f0-62607289efee_story.html
This seems the dumbest thing from Arends I have ever read, speaking of the next slump:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-simple-way-to-beat-a-bear-market-2018-10-30
there might be some tax fears, but my hunch, vague and only hunchy, is that anything that derails the current political course will result eventually in a degree of exuberation
A different, broader speculative take (PKrugman today):
This is NOT a stock market prediction -- my track record there ain't too good. But I would point out that recent market action -- the big swoops up and down based on not much -- reminds me of …
@OS,
not quite how it works ('tax on consumer goods')
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/07/opinion/how-to-lose-a-trade-war.html
and there is lots more of this sort of analysis.
But yes, if the taxcuts actually helped your situation (did they? how…
@OS,
Trade imbalance is not what you seem to think it is, not even close.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/05/us/politics/trade-deficit-tariffs-economists-trump.html
And other than properly adjusting some business rates, there is nothing to be t…
whatever the amount, invest it when you got it, or as you get it (received over time does not really mean the same thing as intentional DCA, by choice; just the way it works out)
This is a fine summary of the state of play, and point 4 is worth studying in particular:
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/10/mitch-mcconnell-medicare-social-security-bloomberg-news-entitlements-deficit.html
Krug today on this:
… on Trump and the Fed. The thing here is to keep two concepts separate. You can believe that the Fed is raising rates too quickly, as I do, and also believe that weighing in the way Trump has is very, very bad. Now, the Fed isn…
