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davidrmoran
I myself see a big pullback coming in the next six months but I don’t know that I have ever been correct over 45 years. I will put a lot of money in if a 10% pullback comes. I expect you r being prudent depending on how old you are. The thing is, if you’re young, you might as well stick it out and not try to time. He said.
right, it's the sense of winning and not losing --- perceived-loss aversion --- that is paramount for so many
>> Rather, they would take the money and invest it.
or, for many, do all the other things than invest
DSEEX up 2.9% above SP500 the first half of this year, in a crazy-strong period thus far (over 18.5%);
1.6% above CAPE alone;
and even a percent or so above TRBCX and FCNTX.
A hair under FLVCX, of all things, which is otherwise not good at all…
>> http://cri.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/policy-report-19-02.pdf
A key thought about the nonpopularity of annuities:
The individual sees the annuity as a bet, and if they receive the full cost of the annuity payouts before the…
Sanders is toast at some point, but sure, raise my taxes, and my kids' too, and none of us is near the top percent, but fortunate regardless compared with many
Roger all.
I am bailed out of DLEUX altogether, after it broke even. DSEEX has been impressively consistent indeed. I wonder if I will stay 2/3 or more in it as I continue to age out :).
Some interesting things I found tonight:
- boilerplate from DoubleLine which somehow I missed before:
'The Fund may use leverage which may cause the effect of an increase or decrease in the value of the portfolio securities to be magnified and the …
>> Barclays calculated the index values at least as far back as 2012
You mean 2002, correct?
That is odd he would make such a bald volatility claim, as I study this graph, yes.
https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/VZJ_aAz5A0gSKHXbVIpZZg--~A/YX…
\\\ ... pointing to the fact that using CAPE as an investment strategy has shown lower volatility and a higher rate of return over time
>> I don't know what he was looking at.
Well, he's speaking after CAPE has been in operation only 54 wee…
@BenWP,
What brokerage do you use for CAPE?
Bid-ask of 16 cents on $134 (if I am reading the Fidelity listing right) does not sound so wide, and it tracks its NAV pretty closely. Am I missing something?
When you graph PSTKX ($1M minimum; PSPAX is the investor class) vs IVV over periods shorter than the last 8-9y, the added value from the bond sauce sure looks tiny, sometime nonexistent, and also sometimes worsening rather than buffering dips and vo…
@CareFree,
From a year and a half ago:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/doubleline-fund-doubles-the-returns-of-rivals-by-uncovering-a-curious-strategy-2017-11-30
The fund is not specifically defensive in nature, [Jeffrey] Sherman explained, becaus…
Whaddaya mean what's it doing there? How do you think the web works? It assumes you might want to know more ....
Looking at the last 4y of performance (and parsing sub-periods) it's hard to see exactly why you would take SCHD over OUSA, NOBL, VIG,…
@Mark,
fyi, just got this from Fido c/s:
... when the holdings in DSENX reach the initial investment minimum of $100,000 for DSEEX, [then] a quick call to Fidelity is all that is needed to convert the shares. Since the initial investment minimum i…
and so how at 84 do you know these things? how does anyone come to know these things? I l just love wisdom, especially when taking the form of simple, unknowable, meaning-free rules.
@Old_Skeet,
>> I'm thinking you are taking on more risk than you realise ...
may be
>> and, for what? Inorder to beat the 500 Index.
sure
The last 5y, if I had been 50-50 (or whatever) in IVV and FTBFX instead of DSEEX and PONAX …
Har. Someone goes to M*
http://portfolios.morningstar.com/fund/summary?t=DSENX®ion=usa&culture=en_US
and is supposed to parse out at a high level (or any level) what sort of beast this is.
45% bonds, it says. Nothing listed under mark…
Seriously? Because anyone reading it might be, indeed would be, led to think they were buying a fund which was 3/4 cash, and would perform and might be expected to perform like a fund 3/4 cash.
Does that seem reasonable, much less inferentially acc…
@MikeM,
That's as misleading as showing DSE_X as half bonds+cash, jeez; M* is so messed up in this.
See
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2019/05/balter-invenomic-bivrx-bivix-bivsx/#more-12776
Thought I would give it a try.
I am now under 2/3 total in DSEEX and instead of putting recent sale proceeds among PCI, PONAX, and FRIFX, I put it into BIVRX. We'll see. Plus took cash to live on.
Meanwhile, the NABE, NY and Philly Fed, and the rail reports sure give pause:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-trump-economy-house-of-cards-collapses/2019/06/21/00412398-9429-11e9-aadb-74e6b2b46f6a_story.html
It is interesting to compare DGRO, DGRW, OUSA, QUAL, NOBL, SCHD, and VIG over the last 3, 2, and 1 years and see which ones move ahead of the others. (All outperforming CAPE for the 1- and 2y periods but not longer.)
@Mark,
I just emailed them to remind me what it is I have done for several years now, the same process each time, no changes. I think it was just that once DSENX got above $100k, a phone call permitted quick reclassification to DSEEX, no TF, no not…
