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davidrmoran
I myself see a big pullback coming in the next six months but I don’t know that I have ever been correct over 45 years. I will put a lot of money in if a 10% pullback comes. I expect you r being prudent depending on how old you are. The thing is, if you’re young, you might as well stick it out and not try to time. He said.
It is fascinating to analyze RPG and RPV vs FXAIX over the last 14+ years and the shorter periods of your choosing:
http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart.action?t=fxaix
Weighting issues aside (plug in RSP to see that dynamic delta), value…
>> It is not part of your "net worth".
have kids?
yeah, but neither I nor them can eat the house. If you sink all our assets in house and then lose job, what then?
they can eat it after you're dead
who's talking about sinking all assets i…
Thanks. I am not as savvy as you, I expect, and have no idea if Fido is better than Schwab in this regard. I was surprised at being able to buy so 'visibly cheap' but have no idea if I could've bought it much cheaper and am therefore the ideal mark.…
ty
this is longterm, of course, so hopeful
going to do the same w VONE upon further dips
it was interesting to see Fido flag my order to change to limit, not market, for 'illiquid' securities
also big advisory from them that ETNs do NOT repr…
huh?
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/svarx/portfolio
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/sfhyx/portfolio
5* with huge fees
all righty then
(have not checked mfop)
>> One withdraws 4% of the original portfolio (here 4% of $1M, or $40K), and then adjusts that fixed amount for inflation.
ah
>> Bengen has not found any historical 30 year period, including ones with low inflation and richly priced m…
Discussing same option with my wife. Our mortgage is at 2.625%. I still think there are opportunities to beat that rate through equity returns on longterm basis....
What he said. I cannot imagine, even today, paying off any mortgage under
>> You're writing about, to use @davidrmoran's term, what you "feel". I'm writing about numbers.
That is Bengen's word, only about inflation. (From your above quote from his nice article [p3], entire thing starting here:
https://www.fa-mag.co…
It's the eternal question, speculating about future data.
>> You can hope that he revisits his partitioning of CAPE ranges in a few years when he has more high CAPE data points to work with.
Yup. I wonder what the wisest advisers are telli…
>> showing that 4.5% works for 1979-2008.
of course; whoever has said otherwise?
>> the mid 80s were a good time to start
of course, the best ! Thank goodness.
My curiosity, as I said, is about what the scenario might look like .…
>> never less than 4.5%, and can be increased if the ratio at the start of retirement is under 20.
I wonder if he still feels this way. I could check. The link is from spring of 2008, a wonderful time to be writing about anything financial, …
Concur. Recovery duration is the other half of criterion when consider MAXDD. I prefer those with shorter duration and VCORX is one example versus PIMIX, one month versus 6 months. Remember during 2008's MAXDD it took over 24 months to recover. Th…
Why would you choose this over say BIV? or the more volatile FTBFX?
Plug the symbols into Portfolio Visualizer and you'll see why. Not only does TCW have the best returns dating back to 2007 (with no down years) but lowest SD and highest Sharp. …
maybe; will be intriguing to watch fed policy struggles if biden wins, in only 2w
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/19/business/dealbook/biden-tax-economy.html
(earlier: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/01/opinion/trump-biden-economic-policy.html)
hi…
What @hank said.
What I posted about singularity was a somewhat extreme or unusual example, though the rhetorical casting w/ the why ... bad does some excusing. My analogs of politics and economics are rather crude. Most eds other than me in absent…
'rising rates' in this case is more like politics and economics and such, a nominal plural functioning as a singular ... so the OP is fine as is
(economics is a dismal subject, e.g.)
the infinitive 'rule' arose because it cannot be done in other languages (ours is perhaps the only where the infinitive is two words)
and yes, it is increasingly ignored, although when gross ('who doesn't want to loudly and enthusiastically and wi…
An aside @davidrmoran ....what are “some aggressive Akres ETFs”? Thanks
apologies for totally spazzing in senile elderly style
ARK is what I meant
https://ark-funds.com/
I have been analyzing k/q/w, less g and f
again, sorry
much written up…
@msf and some others including FD1k have posted solid thoughts about this area, the former in particular giving lists of current CD links and similar
BUT ... if you really have enough for current cashflow (plus some years of equivalent savings, or…
