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davidrmoran
I myself see a big pullback coming in the next six months but I don’t know that I have ever been correct over 45 years. I will put a lot of money in if a 10% pullback comes. I expect you r being prudent depending on how old you are. The thing is, if you’re young, you might as well stick it out and not try to time. He said.
huh?
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/svarx/portfolio
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/sfhyx/portfolio
5* with huge fees
all righty then
(have not checked mfop)
>> One withdraws 4% of the original portfolio (here 4% of $1M, or $40K), and then adjusts that fixed amount for inflation.
ah
>> Bengen has not found any historical 30 year period, including ones with low inflation and richly priced m…
Discussing same option with my wife. Our mortgage is at 2.625%. I still think there are opportunities to beat that rate through equity returns on longterm basis....
What he said. I cannot imagine, even today, paying off any mortgage under
>> You're writing about, to use @davidrmoran's term, what you "feel". I'm writing about numbers.
That is Bengen's word, only about inflation. (From your above quote from his nice article [p3], entire thing starting here:
https://www.fa-mag.co…
It's the eternal question, speculating about future data.
>> You can hope that he revisits his partitioning of CAPE ranges in a few years when he has more high CAPE data points to work with.
Yup. I wonder what the wisest advisers are telli…
>> showing that 4.5% works for 1979-2008.
of course; whoever has said otherwise?
>> the mid 80s were a good time to start
of course, the best ! Thank goodness.
My curiosity, as I said, is about what the scenario might look like .…
>> never less than 4.5%, and can be increased if the ratio at the start of retirement is under 20.
I wonder if he still feels this way. I could check. The link is from spring of 2008, a wonderful time to be writing about anything financial, …
Concur. Recovery duration is the other half of criterion when consider MAXDD. I prefer those with shorter duration and VCORX is one example versus PIMIX, one month versus 6 months. Remember during 2008's MAXDD it took over 24 months to recover. Th…
Why would you choose this over say BIV? or the more volatile FTBFX?
Plug the symbols into Portfolio Visualizer and you'll see why. Not only does TCW have the best returns dating back to 2007 (with no down years) but lowest SD and highest Sharp. …
maybe; will be intriguing to watch fed policy struggles if biden wins, in only 2w
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/19/business/dealbook/biden-tax-economy.html
(earlier: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/01/opinion/trump-biden-economic-policy.html)
hi…
What @hank said.
What I posted about singularity was a somewhat extreme or unusual example, though the rhetorical casting w/ the why ... bad does some excusing. My analogs of politics and economics are rather crude. Most eds other than me in absent…
'rising rates' in this case is more like politics and economics and such, a nominal plural functioning as a singular ... so the OP is fine as is
(economics is a dismal subject, e.g.)
the infinitive 'rule' arose because it cannot be done in other languages (ours is perhaps the only where the infinitive is two words)
and yes, it is increasingly ignored, although when gross ('who doesn't want to loudly and enthusiastically and wi…
An aside @davidrmoran ....what are “some aggressive Akres ETFs”? Thanks
apologies for totally spazzing in senile elderly style
ARK is what I meant
https://ark-funds.com/
I have been analyzing k/q/w, less g and f
again, sorry
much written up…
@msf and some others including FD1k have posted solid thoughts about this area, the former in particular giving lists of current CD links and similar
BUT ... if you really have enough for current cashflow (plus some years of equivalent savings, or…
It would be amazing if someone so successful and so sharing of that success triggered the first censorship of known lies on MFO, as policies were enforced a la Twitter and Facebook, both of which have blocked the NYPost charge
Retirement pleasures put to the side, I would love now to be working, remotely, at any of the editing / writing jobs of my last decades, but would hate to be suddenly downsized and looking; been that and done there, for long anxious years, and now w…
@FD1k,
Apologies; I thought it was you who said long ago you did all your rapid trading of mfunds without penalty via special treatment.
Not seeing that anything I said is trash. Good for being multimillionaire; me too.
Disgusting swamp goo.
I agree. I wasn't in that meeting but I sold most of my portfolio(all bond funds) at the end of 02/2020 documented (here).
But, the following (link) is also a disgusting swamp goo and we can call it Joe Quid pro quo.
You o…
well, plus all the philanthropy and cause support
plus a byline somewhere advising others about bonds and his rapid fund trading without penalty
like the poster (sorry to draw a blank) who is now making a living selling puts, or whatever it is
For some reason I take most here at face value and assume good faith, but it is true that FD1k should be a multimillionaire, philanthropist, and posting regularly for seekingalpha or similar.
it is never 'paid off', just grown out of, with luck and such
this has been covered
what chiefly matters, though surely there is a bad tipping point possible, everyone agrees, is what the debt is invested in: infrastructure, disaster relief, HC…
