Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
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davidrmoran
I myself see a big pullback coming in the next six months but I don’t know that I have ever been correct over 45 years. I will put a lot of money in if a 10% pullback comes. I expect you r being prudent depending on how old you are. The thing is, if you’re young, you might as well stick it out and not try to time. He said.
>> it would help if you could explain what in the piece you found relevant to budget deficits.
Well, of course this, an interesting way of looking at it:
And the Fed has indeed bought a lot of government debt. But is the Fed really financi…
The Krug quote was from 9y ago, as noted, just making the general point, and over long spans.
As for
>> https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S
click the 5y and 1y graphs to see the decline and leveling from a year ago. (Not large.…
Moreover, ... governments don’t [have to pay back their debt] — all they need to do is ensure that debt grows more slowly than their tax base. The debt from World War II was never repaid; it just became increasingly irrelevant as the U.S. economy gr…
So it's clear it's chiefly a mental health thing for some --- instead of deciding anything, you can (have to only) talk with someone and be done.
If you can diy and leave alone with a clear head and low enough anxiety to get through the day, obviou…
Hi @davidrmoran
Regardless of the beginning post topic; you've been here long enough to understand that a great deal of knowledge may be learned and digested from from the follow-up posts by members, yes?
I too have way more than enough money. Wha…
I don't understand why this is considered a "silly question, silly answer". It's a question that I've asked myself many, many times over the last couple of years as I've watched the equity market continually rack up gains.
OJ,
You have seriously a…
some fun lookbacks arguing over foreign investment
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/02/27/investing-do-you-want-to-send-your-money-abroad/24077415/
https://johnmwaggoner.wordpress.com/2015/06/08/death-to-u-s-stock-funds/
this is good analysis
https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=116&emc=edit_pk_20210720&instance_id=35760&nl=paul-krugman&productCode=PK&regi_id=22268089&segment_id=…
When I needed some revision surgery 12y after the first op, I asked the doc if the need had to do w subpar work prior. He said 'Nope; life happens; wear and tear'. I said 'What about 12y from now? Will I need it yet again? Will your work last longer…
@msf, ty again. I think I will stop using UI quite as casually and decisively as I have been.
I suppose sleep-at-night is UI wrt one's personal psychology / anxiety.
I concur in the first example. I have to think further about second example; my…
@msf, my 'petty' proofing and query had only to do with whether the quote posted as from the WSJ was actually from the WSJ, given the 'typo'; no one here is served by inexactness, of which there is enough, much less suspect or sketchy origin, and fo…
tnx
There has been no little discussion here in the past of risk, relative risk, and volatility (is this what you meant by defining UI as 'length and duration of the maximum drawdown over a period of time'), perhaps some of it already including yo…
+1
otoh, some smart diving into the dynamics:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/29/upshot/markets-work-but-untangling-global-supply-chains-takes-time.html
A local cable channel specializing in westerns-action movies (Wayne, Cruise, Willis et alia) ran a campaign last week along these lines, with explosions in the background:
'Your kids drive in from out of town with the grandchildren, to see grandpa;…
>> the relative underperformance of value with respect to growth in the past three years is unprecedented.
By my read, of the (difficult for me) Fidelity $10k-growth charting for VONE vs VONV, much less VONG, the underperformance holds for th…
