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davidrmoran
I myself see a big pullback coming in the next six months but I don’t know that I have ever been correct over 45 years. I will put a lot of money in if a 10% pullback comes. I expect you r being prudent depending on how old you are. The thing is, if you’re young, you might as well stick it out and not try to time. He said.
us and europe inflation is effectively over (meaning back to 2% or less), says yet another student
(aside from lags and ongoing gouging)
https://twitter.com/jan_eeckhout/status/1617478919560794112
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/23/opinion/government-debt-deficit.html
It’s true that U.S. debt is very large — $31 trillion .... But America is a big country, so almost every economic number is very large. A better way to think about debt is to a…
Keep in mind that all that matters is debt as a function of (percentage of) GDP and growth. Can we grow out of it, as in the past?
https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-states/total-debt--of-gdp
Highest was ~2y ago.
I posted in early 11/2022 that the turnaround in bonds started....1) Bad losses should turn to a nice rebound 2) we can see the end of rate increase, no need to wait 3) the charts/uptrend gave a clear signal 4) Inflation starts to go down).
I we…
8.4% interest is very respectable. Thus we will go for it this year. Don’t think we get back to 2% inflation in 2023.
already are, almost; go study the econ threads listed within the inflation thread here
Time to buy, I say
(Jason Furman Twitter)
Excluding housing (which is ~40% of core) and used cars, supercore inflation was consistently modest for the last three months -- a 1.8% annual rate over this period. That is the lowest since February 202…
from
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/09/opinion/election-deniers-recession-inflation.html
Over the year ending in November (the most recent data available), the Consumer Price Index rose 7.1 percent. But inflation ran at an annual rate of only 4.8…
more better
https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/template/oakv2?campaign_id=116&emc=edit_pk_20230110&instance_id=82350&nl=paul-krugman&productCode=PK&regi_id=22268089&segment_id=122135&am…
ha and yes
I find gold almost completely uninteresting myself, but always want to see what Arends thinks (also like how equivocal he is much of the time)
good grief, reading comp
It is NOT an ad.
Brett Arends has been a v smart financial writer for decades
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brett_Arends
The article:
Brett Arends's ROI
This ‘crazy’ retirement portfolio has just beaten Wall Street f…
But all you can come up with now is a mortgage fund and a one-day inverse gov ETF?
Weren’t you whingeing on about BSV months ago?
Do you have any nonwacky thoughts?
@FD1000
>> You can make several % more in managed bond fund, this is where they shine.
go on, please (as always)
DODIX was down just under 10% for the year, a few percent better (yes) than FTBFX, FBND, AGG, BOND, and the others, not as good…
PK twitter thread today (historical-facing):
... one way to think about inflation is that it's like a sports event where everyone stands up to get a better view of the action — which is collectively self-defeating.
Controlling inflation by induci…
@Old_Joe, thick question:
>> We don't really need income in addition to our pensions and SS
If this is the case and seems to be reliably so for you going forward, why not put half or more of whatever remains into SCHD, perhaps dip-buying o…
The 'miracle' of compounding works in all ways and can mislead the eye-closed wishful (moi?) who do not run the numbers.
In early 2009 we bought a modest house and land (with spectacular view) in one of the pricier suburbs in the country: a town w…
I like Levitz but am not persuaded
did not follow crash's anecdata at all
here is PK today:
The average national price of regular gasoline this Christmas was almost 20 cents a gallon lower than it was a year earlier. Prices at the pump are still…
