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davidrmoran
I myself see a big pullback coming in the next six months but I don’t know that I have ever been correct over 45 years. I will put a lot of money in if a 10% pullback comes. I expect you r being prudent depending on how old you are. The thing is, if you’re young, you might as well stick it out and not try to time. He said.
Reply to @PRESSmUP:
There are some good timing/decisionmaking calculators, notably the AARP one:
http://www.aarp.org/work/social-security/social-security-benefits-calculator/
TRP has something similar, I believe.
All of them I have run (just be a…
Reply to @Ted: While I am not in favor of (regressive) sales taxes, your salt here suggestion might be way cool; also sugar, fat .... I still hope the mil-level fin transaction tax might get traction down the road.
I have no money to spare, really…
Reply to @bee: Of course, and good on paper, but that way can lie fiefs and worse. I don't have kids, why should I pay for schools; I'm a guy, why should I pay for maternity coverage. Etc. 'We're all in this together' --- that spirit is dead among s…
Reply to @bee:
>> How about a Florida tourism dividend? A California Raisin Dividend?
They come indirectly and to all in general, no? Like almost all such benefits.
cman's fixed-pie perception observation is spot-on. I can only imagine how m…
Reply to @Maurice: You have all the answers, Maurice, and should we assume you let taxes rule your investment decisions? Whatever your answers, it's the same man who has said, again and again, that the idea that higher tax rates will stifle investme…
Reply to @BobC: Taxes have never dictated any investment decisions I have ever made over 45 years, and same for Warren Buffett, as he famously declares now and then. One little and one big data. Articles similarly regularly advocate for not letting …
Who says the media chase recent returns? Without a doubt. Always looking for alternatives or additions to GABSX, I went to the data for Bogle SC and Fidelity Enhanced and all the others and did my usual Jan 07 startpoint. GABSX beat them all badly a…
Reply to @mikes425: As others have said, take a deep breath or three and think about what you want here, and, as cman put it, do not overthink it anymore, all these details. Just relax and reflect and drop its imminence for two weeks. Then you will …
Reply to @mikes425:
One final point, since you seem a useful combination of brave, self-aware, OCD, anxious, experienced, articulate, and savvy: At some point of distilling, reduction, shrinkage etc., you can take this all over yourself and save a …
Reply to @mikes425: Maybe someone has already pointed this out to you, so forgive repetition (doubly so if it was me), but the more funds you have the closer (much closer) you move toward achieving an index situation and result. It sounds a little c…
Reply to @bee: Never been able to get the middle one to work worth spit, but the first and third are excellent, thanks. Had not seen this new (?) Vanguard one.
Wrong hed for this article; correct url is http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=630335, and it's a lame article, makework for a slow day. M* site is partly down at the moment anyway. Have never been able to understand the strong an…
Reply to @Ted: Way to go. When I did the exact same thing, something happened, I forget exactly what, maybe there was a delay, or maybe the news was greeted with hohum ... but I wound up selling at $8.
Reply to @greendragon71: Years ago I finally settled on GABSX after chasing various good Royce and Fido sc funds. Held PENNX for the longest time, also JASCX, both very good, but Gabelli seemed marginally better over the ups and downs. Now have some…
MM, what age are you that you have just under 2/3 of your portfolio in all bonds or balanced? Meaning perhaps half in toto is in bonds? (if my math is good). While it may appear 'superb and sensible', your fussing about here is close to playing at t…
Sigh. Always good to know what you own. Going from 60% to 70% stock in a fund explicitly permitted and designed to do that per manager judgment, well, that's why we pay active managers. If you want something other, get something other; almost any 40…
Reply to @Charles: An intriguing response. Do you have thoughts, since you dive into so much data, about the franchise aspect of funds, and the likelihood of good inertia from methodology and culture and process? Is it quantifiable in any way, or ju…
Reply to @Ted: Wow, how touchy, and what a jerk thing to write (also erroneous). Is the point about serial management invalid? Is that what you're saying? It's simply the name of the fund that matters? I was very surprised that you yourself did not …
Charles, am I correct that it was you who wrote SEQUX was greatest in history or some such? Uh, are the Celtics still the greatest bball team (uh, no). Why would you of all historically minded people say such a thing of a fund whose manager has been…
Reply to @Ted: You guys have not read it closely enough, I suggest, and may be reacting in kneejerk fashion. As with wine and coffee, e.g., they turn to outside experts, I believe. (Not like their car or washer testing at all, in other words.) Their…
Reply to @lord_nelson: GABEX is slightly higher, though like everyone now it tilts toward nonmega. It has been higher than its current $30B market cap in the past, though. You might want to check it out. You might also look into JENSX, $46B mc, thou…
Reply to @Ted: Whoa, easy, self-appointed cop. What he actually said was (and which you misread) is in fact the case as of 11a ET NY day: 'Feb. 10, 2003, 10:04 p.m. EST'
Concur; I know nothing about them and have never wanted to, although like MFS and some others they are a big part of the picture here in Boston. More important, they have made big talent raids on Fido, and some obviously have paid off. (Wonder how m…
Reply to @cman:
>> What role does a fund like this play in your portfolio?
Being newly semiretired I have cash plus three buckets, so called, corresponding to active live brokerage accounts, traditional IRAs, and Roths. I foolishly play wit…
Reply to @MikeM: Before buying RGHVX I wondered about this up/down as well, and whether it would continue (roughly) or change. I went ahead and also did the equivalent purchase with ARLSX, which I see has not entered into this discussion. (Ted?)
Reply to @cman:
>> confused incoherence of David with his brain screaming "it doesn't compute"
Gracious. You get called out for positing the fancies and fantasies of the extreme logician and personal insult is the response? (I was correct a…
Reply to @cman: Wow! What a cynical and unsophisticated view from someone who poses here, or comes off, as an informed financial sort. Good grief. Do you really believe that if people were financially literate they would not want or need loans? Cred…
Not seeing why the M* growth of 10k graphs will not suffice. It will not give you your own amounts, but that is easy to extrapolate. You can compare up to maybe 5-6 funds, I believe. I use it all the time to look at dip and comeback performance, in …
Reply to @cman: Contrarian would (for me in this situation) mean assuming most bad news is already baked into current pricing (bond indexes). AOK is a balanced allocation, only it's 25/75 or thereabouts. Not trying to time, nimbly or otherwise. (Che…
Relatedly, is anyone pondering a contrarian bond play for the next year or three? (Meaning all bad news is overbaked in?) I was thinking of buying 10k (or something) of AOK, for example.
Reply to @scott: Not necessarily arguing, but Gabelli in more than one of his very good and steady funds (not just singles) has explicitly stated their investment philosophy to be event-driven. So your conclusion overstates the matter perhaps. Sovie…
Reply to @cman: How so sorry-ass? Anyone @30 +/- who follows this advice should be fine by then, in my experience, via natural law or caprice. They will have become able to take a bear hit. No? Am I missing something in what you fear? I myself have …
