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davidrmoran
I myself see a big pullback coming in the next six months but I don’t know that I have ever been correct over 45 years. I will put a lot of money in if a 10% pullback comes. I expect you r being prudent depending on how old you are. The thing is, if you’re young, you might as well stick it out and not try to time. He said.
>> if a huge fund like DODGX finds a small cap company that is a great investment, so what? DODGX is so big that it can't buy enough of the small company to make any significant difference in its performance. Thus, the more successful a fund …
What catch said. Graph it against VNQ or FREAX or even CGMRX and you can see how smoothing it is. One of my large but not large enough retirement holdings.
Skeet,
Of course you are aware that the more funds (15 listed) you own the more likely your results will be average, right? I quickly checked two of my balanced faves, GLRBX and ICMBX, and saw their ytd was ~2.3% and ~4%. Just sayin'.
Gah, I would expect to be asking you that rather than vice-versa.
?:
1) Look to the longer terms to see what if anything exists in reality.
I have just been comparing Tillinghast (FLPSX) over the last 12.9y *by year bundle* --- smidgens of plus, b…
PRBLX, YACKX/YAFFX (all of whom beat most of these), TORYX (in a bad slump for some time), WVALX .... Anyone who overlooks the Yackts and Parnassus wrt pokiness of trading is missing out if they feel that criterion is crucially important.
Ditto MAP…
MarkM,
I took it to be me (perhaps I am wrong) whom you were taking a shot at, and I don't mind, at least no more than any online tussle. I learn from people here all the time, conflict or harmony.
If 'twas I, I do suppose it seemed unfair to ch…
I and most are well aware of the recovery cycle and length from the Great Depression. And you are cherrypicking distasters other than that, come on. LTCM etc., 1987. You know all the research articles showing that 1987 was hardly even a blip.
What …
yeah, if only ARLSX had not done and were not doing quite inferiorly, 3y/1y/ytd, compared with, you know, GLRBX, FPACX, JABAX, and ICMBX, to use my own favorite lower-risk balanced funds. I wonder what's been happening.
>> You need to keep buying, rotating, withdrawing, selecting, protecting, etc over the lifetime of investing.
Cman, do you not use funds and fund managers? (honest question, not rhetorical or fightpicking)
MJG,
Oh, dear, sorry. I know your work and stuck my scribbles in the wrong spot. You also are more polite than I am. I was and am surprised; his scenario odds are not only remote, and at least some of his assertions are not on target by any definit…
Active management actually does not give *too* much downside protection, but some, sure. And some guys are way way better than others, absolutely, as we retirees try to uncover. The thing to do is hold on, and have enough cash or access to cash to h…
I bought it ~2.5y ago because I pay very close attention to anything that catches DS's eye, like so many here. In a practice I am increasingly trying to avoid in retirement (and succeeding with since), I bailed out of it after a couple years because…
>> [fund managers] cannot move substantially into cash in times of high risk
What's 'substantially'?
I have no issue when Yacktmans and Ahlsten and Romick move into cash.
I guess if they went 3/4 into it they would get a lot of grief.
A silly and self-evident article, always underdone by 'except when this is not the case'.
Rightly or wrongly, in my retirement I invest only in otherwise good equity funds that have better-than-index downside behaviors. Else why bother?
I would not read past a lede like this, ever, except Salmon is smart and the halfbaked article provocative, including that lameass introduction quote:
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2014/03/31/michael-lewiss-flawed-new-book/
Agree, it is the 100% part that is hard: leaving it the hell alone. I have done this (not for long enough) with GLRBX, JABAX, and ICMBX, which I prefer (downside) to any of yours other than MAPOX and FPACX, which are awesome and have been for many d…
A famous article, so thanks for bringing it back to attention.
>> I choose to position myself on the shoulders of these giants, including the acknowledgement that simplification does reach a limit.
That said,I bet that, like me, you do not…
Nah, just used to have a way higher opinion of Boeheim as a coach --- tactically and so on. Two losses directly traceable to a highest-level D1 coach, from behavior and from actual coaching, seriously?
Well, at least Ky was the only group of young'uns not beat soundly and smoothly by their elders, unlike all the other wannaba NBA factories. That was a welcome development.
As for poor 'cuse, Boeheim showed weeks ago what a bum he has become simply…
Thanks for pointing out the branding angle. I thought of that, and of steering them toward a CU annuity or something involving academe (they're in NH). AARP branding does count for a lot in this cohort, without question. (I myself am shopping for de…
All correct and a thorough writeup. I had not considered discussing with them doing partial annuitizing, but I think I will run those numbers. (The husband is a famous engineer and math whiz --- likes doing differential equations in his spare time -…
Thanks v much. Sentiments much appreciated; will try to see if it is worthwhile or sellable as an idea. I myself like such a short-term CB fund pitch. But it took six months to get back to breakeven from Sept 09, four mos from June of last year. So …
yeah, thanks much; the temptation of the stream, constant and forever, commonly prompts people to give up all the money irrevocably. So it might happen here. I thought some of the advisers reading might have pointers.
My question was a simple one, not having to do with the facility. They are all set for affording this place (SS etc.); they just are considering putting their savings nut in toto into an annuity, and my question, and my only question, was what bette…
>> a rite of passage in this forum. You haven't truly become a part until you've been sassed at least once.
True, true. And perhaps this sincere-seeming and eloquent querier is actually and only a bad person.
You are doing everything right and thoughtfully and the adviser may well not be evil or close. It is unlikely loads are being paid. But assuming you have to leave things quite as they are, or almost certainly so, then the next step would not be call…
If for some reason (I guess we are seeing your integrity in this) you insist on staying in balanced funds, then dive into some good ones, but not too many. The ones I have used are (no surprises) GLRBX, FPACX, JABAX, and ICMBX, but not all at once t…
I too (also being outside Boston) am rereading your first sentence many times, trying to reckon what you mean and then infer what you think you will need for cashflow in 15 years. cman and Charles have pointed the way. My own take is nothing but equ…
