Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
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davidrmoran
I myself see a big pullback coming in the next six months but I don’t know that I have ever been correct over 45 years. I will put a lot of money in if a 10% pullback comes. I expect you r being prudent depending on how old you are. The thing is, if you’re young, you might as well stick it out and not try to time. He said.
The decline of grunt skeptical (but not cynical) reporting is bad enough (while at the same time we live in a golden age of substantive online investigation), but worse and mostly unremarked is the decline is hardcore skeptical demanding editing. Wh…
>> but in the past I have lived below the poverty level for years, and even collected food stamps for a while. So I think I have some credibility from that angle.
You certainly do. To me this makes your comments and tone and conclusions all …
@JohnChisum: Where did I get personal with you?? I asked a question, you answered. And the last thing I said to you was approval, dog-style. Jeez louise.
This is probably best dropped, but anyone who flatly asserts the cynnically wacko things timgr does not only hasn't done much hands-on work with the poor, I suggest, but for sure cannot explain all of the red states who would keel over and die were …
Your mind sounds made up, and the only thing you could do is read a bunch of economists whom you probably would have serious distaste for. The usual names; I bet you know them. Gov spending takes from the private sector, lol, where do you suppose th…
>> tax-and-spend philosophy that takes the economic stabilization argument of Keynes as license
What's wrong with this as long as it does not overwhelm GDP?
>> It seems today's government has forgotten all those attributes
As if gov is somehow this evil entity apart from the behaviors of individuals.
I want my beliefs insulted intelligently. Hard to find, true.
I take it you are civically act…
>> Government is legitimate?
No one would disagree it's much too much in bed with big money, but otherwise gah, such bullshit paranoia, old, tired, easily disproven; so jeez, give it a rest and go back to Fox viewing and AM listening or what…
Wow, blame back to Clinton, nod to Snowden, TSA- and Kerry-bashing --- wild, and all on Sept 11. I *am* glad not to be a near-Cincinnati buckeye anymore, that's true, for any number of pol reasons.
Hindsight is the best!
Looks at his bulls. Good thing we had the three dips as and when we did, or he would have to be writing an article about a bull market from 1974 to the present. Wait, what does that mean?
>> whole article is good reading.
>> The referenced article is indeed excellent.
Omg, how the heck so? Seems extremely feeble to me, even by the feeble standards of WSJ and MW service pieces. The rules are lame, not really or demonstr…
>> equal amounts of 3 mutual funds as a total portfolio: Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund, Vanguard Total International Stock Market Index, Vanguard Total Bond Market Index
Well, just graph, from spring 96, VITSX, VBMFX, and VXUS (lemm…
Fascinating. And it's been beaten since say 9/08, 6y ago, beginning of the horrors and the reason one goes into good balanced funds to begin with, by MAPOX, ICMBX (great fund), and JABAX (another one, underknown bigtime).
>> Most large-cap fund managers “will be forced to re-evaluate their portfolios or embrace the likelihood of drafting very disappointing year-end letters,” Mr. Kostin said.
What a fool thing to think. Not that what Snowball wrote isn't true, …
>> suggested that most good funds suffer back to back trailing years without noticeable problem, but that funds with three consecutive weak finishes rarely rebound.
Extremely interesting, and it sounds quite as though you have data --- can …
This nice piece of work is, by the end, unwittingly revealing in ways the author may not realize. At least the headline is right and the right question is posed. There's a cost for convenience, absolutely. Can you replicate AO_ slightly more cheaply…
Looks like one of Farrell's more complex lazy portfolios, a little of this, a little of that, a little of every damn thing.
You could assemble your own AOK/AOM/AOR/AOA blend of blends and add commodity/resource/realty seasonings to taste, for an e…
>> website that calculates rolling returns over X years.
I must be misunderstanding this question, because M* does this so far as I can tell, via the sliders at the bottom of the 'More' graph --- no? What am I missing? Or you can simply stick…
GABSX and WEMMX are 1.4%+/-, but have beaten (not by a lot) FLPSX over the decades, also PENNX. Did not seek out other hottest sc funds to compare. Everyone rags on Gabelli, don't know that he is a genius exactly, but he is an extremely able and con…
SPY has done well, better than AMANX, GABEX, JENSX, SSHFX, TWEIX, and other worthies. Also FLVCX, CGMFX, FCNTX, VWELX. Some hindsight (survivor?) bias (is that a technical stats term?): PRBLX, YAFFX, and FLPSX have done notably better.
A nice sharp comment from the current Malkiel WSJ piece, which is weak, by a James Lear:
\\\ The CAPE analysis by Dr. Schiller is an example of sophisticated mathematics done badly. Two reasons:
1) the "cyclically adjusted" portion of his index is…
@Crash --- roger. Since I was obnoxious (also obvious :) ) enough to ask about that, let me continue by pointing out that you have too many funds and an odd somewhat skewed mix for someone who has to take SS at 62. Have you run this by anyone with e…
Gah, I hope he really believes it. 60%, bwahahaha. Just imagine the value ratios then. I would draw amap on my home equity line and margin my poor Fido and ML accounts amap to buy. This is comical, but would be totes awesome.
Great fund, those buckeyes, out in the middle of nowhere. Lots of alpha, badump.
http://online.barrons.com/news/articles/SB50001424052702304539504576532400452721090
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-11/hated-stocks-unlock-market-as-analysts-no…
>> How many students go to college just for the social experience? They build up loans and come out with nothing but a good time. Those same students then wonder why they cannot find a good job. Many end up in govt jobs it seems.
jesus.
What Ted said. I have been looking at its behaviors during such small dips as we have had, and it looks pretty good, but that's a pretty lame sample, and naturally it is the 'time will tell' aspect that concerns. Sector rotation and judgment, yeah, …
Oh, right, 'waste'. Every private firm should be as efficient and low in overhead as, oh, say, Medicare. Much of Heritage's work is notoriously shoddy even for fellow rightwingers.
