Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Support MFO
Donate through PayPal
davidrmoran
I myself see a big pullback coming in the next six months but I don’t know that I have ever been correct over 45 years. I will put a lot of money in if a 10% pullback comes. I expect you r being prudent depending on how old you are. The thing is, if you’re young, you might as well stick it out and not try to time. He said.
oh, I know the args, just wondering what would make me wonder generally. If he did something horrible? If he became meth-addicted? If he beat his cat? It is one thing to have wack beliefs, another to bruit them. So what should make one reconsider? A…
Charles,
If you take GO largeish equity funds and etfs and sort by UI, you see it is almost identical to sorting by month of bad drop (2015, then 2011, finally 2009) and also (of course) by longevity.
In my little test list, USMV is at the top and…
@davfor
>> there's a lot that can be done to make the income distribution in this country more equitable.
I was attempting to be droll about American exceptionalism and the like.
@davfor
Yeah, I checked it cursorily against the Pew data, perhaps the best of the lot, which is why I deleted my comment of skepticism of anything involving the Mises Institute.
Not sure what the points are really, yay USA, exceptional us, go go …
Well, if you really do not understand how it will do so (income increase, spending, savings), then there is no further discussion to be had, which I guess is a form of no answer, and you can continue to find that UCG's Eric Snow offers something wis…
@Dex
>> what would you do to change the trend of the shrinking middle class?
Well, there are any number of policy changes that smart analysts and political thinkers, including some academics you relentlessly scorn, have advocated, in great d…
>> Do you even read the posts?
Of course. Help us all out: again, what do you propose? Severe protectionism? Can you point me to what I missed? Or is it hopeless and we all simply must share your handwringing? That's weak.
Technology is the driver, yes. Smith was sophisticated about it in some regards:
http://oll.libertyfund.org/quote/316
See last para for subtle explication.
But have we long entered a state where tech development does not directly benefit the inve…
Some of this has improved the last dozen-plus years I have been following the area (editing a sib --- https://www.foreignaffairs.com/reviews/capsule-review/2003-01-01/beyond-sweatshops-foreign-direct-investment-and-globalization).
Not enough, but n…
You infer waaaaay too much and almost all of it wrongly, at least in this post, not in some of your others. Odd for someone who says he has worked in the news. As a member (long ago) of the AFL-CIO who worked on a truck factory line (Harvester), als…
Jeez, such a false choice; the two were never mutually exclusive.
Anyway, this is a seriously weak, low-information way of understanding how the economic world works. Imagine a US economy where chiefly for our own market and use we produced oil, c…
@Edmond,
>> There is a reason why Americans' median income has not grown -- the free-traders, and open-border types have won the policy debate, they "won", they got everything they wanted from our 'For-sale' politicians. How has that worked o…
@msf,
Even though you did not answer my question as to whether this
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/11/us/politics/wealthy-families-presidential-candidates.html
addressed some of your questions, I call your attention to this, which I assume may be …
@catch22,
Considering buying VXX etn next week, depending. Short-term. Scary, but could stand some quick positive hits. Several smart articles however say longterm to short it. Hmm.
>> current occupant of the Oval Office took their accomplishment as his own.
Substantiate this, I challenge you. Give one quote where the president took their "accomplishment as his own". You cannot.
Is it as though any mention of the CiC …
Sorry, you spoke of the minor diffs, your quote, b/w Ds and Rs. ACA is aka Obamacare. It is the man's signature achievement, along with the assassination of bin Laden and the steering of the country post-08 and a great many other things. (Whether on…
@Dex,
>> the minor differences between the Rs and Ds really miss the big picture.
Man, oh man --- you really oughtta get out there and talk to unwealthy people about health insurance and ACA. Many of those people weep with relief.
BO rea…
>> The family data linked to in the NYTimes article did not give a breakdown of which families contributed to which party (and for some families, how much to each party).
?? --- http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/11/us/politics/wealthy-families-p…
>> bribery of public officials and corruption of the political process. Yes the bribery and corruption is legal. ... Legislators and presidents make public policy decisions overwhelmingly based on money coming their way, or in expectation of …
@msf,
I took the article to be more about the people / families than the dollars and percentages and averages. Not hiding anything or trying to mislead. It's like pointing out Vanguard's success (sort of). Not a dollar breakdown; opensecrets and oth…
I was wondering if this recommended guy had a conclusion or conclusions of any sort, any kind of actionable text for us readers.
Since the site is impossible to work with, I simply went to
http://thepatternsite.com/Blog.html#P12
Here are some…
No one disputes the content of the point, just the wording 'roughly 47% accuracy score. ... less than the infamous dart throwing monkey would achieve.'
A hopefully not too subtle example:
Some of the very first shipments of CD players in the early…
DS,
Thanks. Waggoner did go back 25y (though not analyzing discrete years), and there was followup too that might be of interest:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2015/02/27/investing-do-you-want-to-send-your-money-abroad/24077415/
Interesting…
I have no incomprehension here, dude. Tell all of us what your understanding is of the distribution of hits of any monkeys throwing darts, x number of times x number of monkeys. I am trying to figure out how you could possibly write that 47% accurac…
Amazing therefore that no one commented on Reeves 'foreguess' cites:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/you-can-stop-panicking-about-the-stock-market-now-2015-10-08
So do all fund/etf comparison charts really need to show after-tax performance?
See
https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/investment-products/etf/etfs-tax-efficiency
for confirmation.
