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davidrmoran
I myself see a big pullback coming in the next six months but I don’t know that I have ever been correct over 45 years. I will put a lot of money in if a 10% pullback comes. I expect you r being prudent depending on how old you are. The thing is, if you’re young, you might as well stick it out and not try to time. He said.
What am I doing wrong? When M* graphs the C- (b/w Closet indexer and Pretender) PRBLX against Large Blend for 8/7/6/5/4/3/2/1y, it always outperforms, sometimes significantly. Is that not the right measure?
To first order they're bundled, and you did not rank as to "primary" criterion or whatever. You wrote that fund managers are not in returns business but in gathering-asset business. I simply asked why you said that, how it followed. I wonder what fu…
Interesting; must study. Someone posted a link just the last couple weeks that showed PRBLX with significant inertia (= predicted superiority); will see if I can dig up that methodology.
>> Fund managers are in the asset gathering business no…
msf's point about collectively and typical is taken, but what does that ultimately mean? Thesis seems altogether unprovable. Certainly there has been some sort of democratization of so-called higher ed; most think this is a worthy thing. Bound to be…
>> it's not clear that the educational level has
I do not know about in general, but in many selected areas it sure has, just phenomenally. From musical performance to history scholarship, from economic and business/management analyses to IR…
>> since foreigners own the US debt
About a third; 2/3 is money we owe ourselves.
As for Keynesian efficacies, again study:
http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/articles/2014-10-30/why-john-maynard-keyness-theories-can-fix-the-world-economy
>> the 1930s ... wasn't a great time for economic theories such as Keynes. It didn't work then, and it hasn't worked since.
:) Some studying for the genuinely curious, with data! :
http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/articles/2014-10-30/why-john-m…
Mark,
Could not agree more and have posted so. "... common argument [for raising the retirement age] amounts, in effect, to the notion that we can’t let janitors retire because lawyers are living longer" [Krugman and others].
Press was talking abo…
Not unrelaxed or slighted; just was not clear on the point. That Fed types do not understand that labor cannot be done past a certain year of life, and are cavalier in their advice, or worse? (This is an arg some econs have made for lowering SS fra …
What does that have to do with anything? Is this a prole arg? When was the last time our teachers, lawyers, engineers, webmasters, clerks, or economists did heavy lifting? Do our plumbers or firefighters have some insights (econ, moral) the fed does…
Always with the social nets as lifestyle thing. As if that is a major expense. How do healthcare and infrastructure repair and public education and assistance get paid for in Germany and the UK? Fiscal conservatism? Not really.
I've been hearing about this wack 'social liberal / fiscal conservative' goal all my life and have never got it or heard it explained. What and who pay for progressivism? It ain't as if it's free.
Roger. I would revisit FLPSX myself, as that manager is an acknowledged researcher and leader in stockpicking. With his staff. It is a big fund with lots of holdings, so there are always reasons to reject it. Every time I have done so over the last …
Megan Ryan? I must've missed something, unless that's drug haze residual.
>> these Republican debates are the most interesting
not, to me, as actual policy discussion, just insane notions
>> and entertaining in my memory.
true dat
Plumbing and electrician and similar trade training trains you to be that, whereas college training may educate you for a wider range of options by far. Sure, it's good to do it without a ton of debt, no question.
Also there is the variable of job…
AJ, you do understand the method, right?, of regularly rotating into lower valuations (general).
No, I am not thinking of it as defensive, exactly, but no longer know what that means in any case, really, since some I have been in the past have not r…
Seems to me to tend to the slightly less risky, based on my uninformed historical lookbacks and comparisons. (How's that for handwaving?) Its past performance looks not bad when it comes to slumps (bond portion w Gundlach sauce), and its general out…
Since Dec 1, SPX is down ~10%, GLRBX down half that, and everyone else mentioned is in between, FPACX and OAKBX worse than PRWCX and MAPOX.
(DSENX and PONDX 50-50, which is what I am trending toward for say 3/4 of my holdings this year and after, i…
Awes! I was so waiting for your entrance; I am sure many were. The Godwinization of Braham, how can it get any better than that with you on this forum?
My experience:
It seldom works out well (full recovery and more) but it often works out better than bailing now.
It is though you just bought and now own the stock at the current price (as everyone knows). Is it worth holding now and likely to rec…
Do all the stat theory you want, sure. Maybe you can dive into the real world of income and spending and econ behaviors. Or not.
'Trivialized', quite, as you said.
Are you attempting to make the argument that these graphs have no meaning?
Was proposing that, to first order, increased income overall would lead (eventually) to overall increased consumption, and that increase (eventually) to non-falling markets. But points taken about noncausality, sure, and innumeracy does rule, absolu…
