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davidrmoran
I myself see a big pullback coming in the next six months but I don’t know that I have ever been correct over 45 years. I will put a lot of money in if a 10% pullback comes. I expect you r being prudent depending on how old you are. The thing is, if you’re young, you might as well stick it out and not try to time. He said.
@MJG, when you originally wrote 'yet another polemic' you clearly meant that PK writes nothing other than that, and indeed you went on to add
>> Krugman's observations and conclusions ... are not ... formulated from unbiased research. ... Kru…
@Nick_de_Peyster
Momentum is so often a function of policy considerations, is it not? Here likely imaginary. Do you think the latest runup has to do w/ valuations?
Jeez, seasonality to you too.
I too hate when people disingenuously and passive-aggressively weasel-say they were just joking when they initially were not, but that's not what I did: in this forum if I hed anything with, or refer to, 'maybe sell in…
@SW, 'selling in May' is among the hoariest of investing tropes; I was attempting the little joke on it. Other than that, I cannot explain any more clearly than I have why one might consider doing some lightening of equity holdings over the next few…
@SW,
Did you read the very short article? Recent runup is based on assumptions that look very likely not to pan out and/or are based on faulty thinking. PK foresees actual reduction in demand, which is almost never a good thing. See pg2 para2.
So…
With age I too have gone in that direction as to ratios, closer to 60-40, but have done the opposite as to equity types, dialing down SC and foreign and putting those moneys into SP500 (in the CAPE rotation) and RE. I looked hard at what value SC an…
Will do. Can't decide. Can't time. Preach against it. blah blah. :(
I just have had such good outcome with over half in DSEEX / DSENX that I think I should be prudent and not greedy and dial it back to cash in Jan or Feb.
Just recently tracked CAPE…
I knew that cooler heads would address MJG's response comedy.
This is worrisome, in the same vein:
https://www.aei.org/publication/which-trump-will-the-world-see/
(note the source!)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/why-a-stronger-us-dolla…
It is complex indeed. Here is a supple look at it.
https://piie.com/commentary/testimonies/measuring-costs-trade-related-job-loss
The current admin's strong wage insurance and related policies / proposals are not widely appreciated, of course.
He walked that back, majorly, in a scramble. Witless even by his standards.
We want significant (self-dealing) debt, always; the only question is percent of GDP.
I think you are on a very good track. I might look at DVY (also NOBL, OUSA, SPHD) in lieu of SCHD, though it is awfully good. I prefer DVY myself, small beer. The rest are solid choices and thinking.
It's impossible to keep up with what you don't know, and this isn't even recent:
http://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/nixon-prolonged-vietnam-war-for-political-gainand-johnson-knew-about-it-newly-unclassified-tapes-suggest-3595441/
Gosh, just do it, as the phrase goes. Since the turn of the century, FUSEX beats VOO by like 9 bucks on $10k, but SWPPX beats Fido by like $48. Woohoo and bfd.
And all of them pounded by good actives (SSHFX, TWEIX, JENSX, and I did not even bother …
Know anyone whose child was killed in the Bush wars? Or indeed in the Nixon wars?
Do you think the Reagan huge deficit runup (forget the lies and senility and illegal clandestine dealings) had any lasting econ effects?
Get serious and substantive,…
>> Keeping commentary here free of unnecessarily inflammatory and gratuitous insults seems a reasonable tradeoff to insure maintenance of our rather long leash.
Not only wise but elegant !
just wait a few more weeks:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/12/12/the-republican-obamacare-repeal-plan-comes-into-terrifying-focus/
Gosh, capitalism is brutal, but the 'throw Americans out of work' thing is a small part of the story. Coal mining went across the Mississippi, just one example. But technology changes, skills acquisition, comparative advantage, all have been, as I s…
Edmond, you are quite mistaken in any number of ways, but you are completely persuasive that nothing is going to affect your thinking, from any source.
Most pertinent is that this actually has been studied to death and in great detail and quite so…
@Edmond ---
Huh? What's baloney? Everything he wrote is demonstrably true (evidence-based).
More important, what does offshoring have to do with trade, which is what he's writing about? Finance jobs to India is not trade. Your companies are cutti…
A v good article, actually, but you do have do define the slavery-facing EC as a 'technicality', and the approaching-3M popular-vote HRC margin is quite remarkable.
Talk about studying up on this subtle and complex issue:
http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2015/01/06/do-immigrants-take-jobs-from-american-born-workers
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/22/us/immigrants-arent-taking-americans-jobs-new-study-finds…
