Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
Slide #6 has some sobering perspective on expected returns from S&P500.
Slides #10 and #11 aremind-blowing (P/E ratio of Top 10 stocks in S&P500 over time; S&P500 valuation disperstion) -- feels like year 2000 all over again.
Lots of o…
@davidrmoran: in my line of work, i occasionally work with consultants from some of the largest and/or most prestigious firms; some are all-around outstanding, some are simply masters at communicating just about anything, or getting the consulting p…
@hank, I weep for these people.
I had a discussion with a proud recent college grad once, who told me he was about to head off to GS, to make a big salary in NY. I asked him if he divided his salary by 2 (to account for the fact that he would be w…
Hey, um, @LewisBraham, say a bit more about this Twinkies thing. Is it prescription access? An injectable? Is it what the club set is all about right now?
Was just looking at TWEBX this morning, actually, when my wife's statement came. Value has taken it hard on the chin for sure, but Tweedy's performances have been lackluster. It did suffer a lesser draw down than many other actively managed global…
Vanity Fair (or, someone) had a long piece on Bruce that was pretty eye opening. I think he brought on a former radio station magnate as research lead, then bought him a house next to his own or something like that -- before falling out.
The irony…
Fell for both CGMFX and FAIRX. Did okay on CGMFX; got out of FAIRX too late to have realized net gains beyond what a decent bond fund would have given me over the same period.
Kick myself a bit on FAIRX because I knew I wasn't comfortable with t…
@LewisBraham; interesting points. Makes me thing of Oakmark's philosophy, in particular their highly focused offer (which favors higher quality names, IIRC).
I own Oakmark funds, both in taxable and Roth accounts. Have long been a fan of the firm and their process, and more concentrated portfolios.
OAKBX appears to have really lagged a surprising number of "usual suspect" actively managed funds over a …
A bit to @LewisBrahm's point (and, politics aside): look at the bizarre personal (and, personnel) decisions Bruce Berkowitz made during the FAIRX heyday. Always the case that sticks in my mind of talent in money management not translating into str…
Wife and I have been going through the refi paperwork over the past 5 weeks or so. In that time, mortgage rates four our home value and loan amount have been all over the place, changing almost daily. We are lucky we locked in when we did.
I'll add to this that a large proportion of revenue in the S&P 500 comes from overseas.
One will occasionally come across the argument (not saying I buy it, BTW) that there is little reason to have a heavy concentration in international stocks,…
@WABAC -- I highly recommend it. Grew up in New England, outside of Boston. Spent many falls hiking in NH, summers in the lakes regions of NH and Maine. Generally spend a week or two in Switzerland every year -- love canton Uri and the Graubunden.
Maine, New Hampshire, Graubunden, Uri. Have family in all those places. So dying to take a trip, see folks, just enjoy a bit of quiet (hopefully on the edge of a lake).
@Paul:I had a similar thought. From my own experience in the corporate world, I can tell you -- culture counts for a lot. If you have a good culture, you mess with it at your peril.
Slight hijack -- the dynamic Ed describes at the San Fran firm:…
Thanks all for this commentary.
I feel increasingly uneasy about markets and the economy (and I've been skeptical since January, holding 30% cash in a 401k).
Not sure what the alternatives are for an average Joe retail investor. I'm rotating into…
@David_Snowball: oh, Sequoia....
The only think I'll say in support of M*'s POV is that many esteemed value funds are having a real rough patch right now.
The point on team turnover was unknown to me. That's pretty shocking.
And, yeah, for sure…
I've been rotating out of stocks and into flex bond funds of all stripes.
I tend to think that come fall, there will be no safe places to hide, save maybe gold. IIRC, gold is one of those investments which is particularly prone to "works until it …
I really like The Atlantic. Great collection of content, and generally less partisan than most other publications. I re-subscribed during the quarantine(s) and really like their online edition.
Their COVID coverage is broad (vaccines, school open…
@rono -- if I "wear" the mask but it doesn't cover my nose or I wear it around my neck like a scarf, am I being a complete & selfish idiot who shows no understanding of the magnitude and potential of this crisis, and a lack of awareness of the i…
@rfono -- there was a writeup in one of the financial / investing journals about D&C following the 2008 calamity. D&C allegedly improved their process by bringing fixed income committee members / insights in on stock committee selection pro…
Two thoughts:
1. Another D&C fund -- so soon? Are they under new management, or is this really in the best interest of shareholders?
2. If D&C were to add another fund, I kind of think they should add a Global Balanced Fund (Global Stoc…
Not that I'm terribly left of center or anything, but this aligns with the reasons why I thought following the 2008 bailout the US Taxpayers should get a rent / mortgage holiday, at the banks expense.
Interesting turn of events. At least de Vaulx is still there. IIRC, he was next in line to take over for Eveillard at First Eagle. de Vaulx & de Lardemelle were like peas and carrots for a long time; wonder what the story is here.
