Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
@FD1000 - everything you say makes sense, but the sheer volume of data that is capable of being managed by companies (of all sorts) is increasing exponentially. And, I have to imagine that in short order the types of data that do much of the heavy …
@FD1000 - what if all market participants have AIs that converge (say, 98%) on the same trades / stock picks? Does the market become perfectly efficient and the market trend go flat?
I've wondered for some time if active management will die out pretty rapidly or be replaced by a smaller number of active managers driven by AI wars. Perhaps the major quant hedgies are already doing this. Perhaps it really is time to go all-in on…
Everyone is rolling over and getting into the act. Perhaps a sign of the apocalypse?
I doubt that many of these ETFs, even those from respected shops (such as Harris, but see also Leuthold, First Eagle, FPA, Tweedy, GMO, a sort-of PRWCX ETF) will …
Tweedy has never been cheap. My wife is in TWEBX for it's (one-time) ability to avoid losses and deliver a smooth ride; for that we were willing to pay the above average ER. Its been an underperformer for a long time, however, and we're ready to m…
@Sven - First Eagle funds are of interest to me in part because they are (in principle) flexible and hold physical gold. Doesn't seem that will be case with ETFs. I'll be sticking with standard mutual funds for a good long while yet.
The main concern i have with many of these ETFs coming out of fund shows is trading volume. LCR looks cool and has decent AUM, but trading volume is a bit thin. Numerous other examples from respected funds shops and advisors abound.
A secondary c…
@Charles - point taken re: Buffett. And for clarity, I guess I should have been clearer - I'm wary of boutique funds managed by a team of 1, 2 or 3; not enough. FAIRX had a team of 3 at one point, and two left. Heebner was great until he wasn't.…
What people are thinking: "Bruce is going to get his old magic back...".
(I say this as a former long-term holder of FAIRX; who bailed after a couple of years of watching Bruce do a lot of weird stuff)
Used to love Vanguard. Not no more. They are just a massive hassle to deal with.
I called them up a short while ago about opening up a new taxable account. I didn't want to open an account online, but couldn't find a form on their website. Th…
@Derf - no, was something that I had thought about for some time, since one of my taxable fund holdings (FESGX) has a position in gold, and I respect them as a conservative value manager.
Of note, FESGX has gold / gold exposure at ~15% last I check…
I've looked at CEFs for a while, but they would seem to require more expertise than I have. I'd rather in vest in a mutual fund or ETF that invests in CEFs. Even those rather specialized types of funds seem to underperform their associated indices…
I love working with Vanguard....
...actually, no I don't.
They actually have a couple of Vanguard funds that I'm very interested in, but I've purposefully waived off and gone with D&C, FPA, etc., because I simply hate dealing with Vanguard.
I hold GMPCX, GPRIX, GUSYX. I'm not sure I understand what they're doing wrong either @sma3, but I wonder if it has something to do with their growth tilt, and the current rate environment (in the US at least) not being favorable to growth stocks. …
Also of note: bit more chatter this week and last about France and even the UK placing troops in UKR as a rearguard action, or even as buffer against BYS.
I'll second what @sma3 said -- I hate dealing with Vanguard. I have actively invested elsewhere because I don't want to deal with their nonsense. Their argument is that "they're saving shareholders money...". Honestly you can add that extra .0015…
@msf - great comments; thanks. I checked my RPHYX statement last night, and it confirms what you've stated.
I made a simple calculation when I sold some RPHYX and went to T-Bills; I looked at the average return of RPHYX over the past several yea…
I've been buying 3-month treasuries for a year or so and have been was getting 4% at the start of the interval (took money out of RPHYX, in fact) and 5% more recently.
I'll stay with that strategy for a while.
Thanks, Both. I recall the Rubin interview (Barrons, I think it was) when he commented that "most people don't use shorting correctly" or "most people don't short enough", or something similar. I am a shareholder in the fund, and that rakish, over…
Very well put, David. There was always something of Charlie and Warren that reminded me of my (deceased) hard-scrabble grandfather. I wish we as a culture here in the US spent more time honoring individuals like him than, say, individuals like Har…
Greatly appreciated, David; and I agree, this is not terribly surprising. I hold Osterweis in high regard, and hold their funds in both taxable and IRA accounts.
Can't thank you enough, David. I've been with Osterweis for quite some time. It's reassuring to me that they're taking the same principled approach I would.
Do you know if they're keeping the same bond staff onboard, perhaps to support on OSTVX…
I'm always about 10-15% smid caps, with a heavy value tilt. Especially in my Roth where I have longer (God willing) to ride out any recession. Small caps rock !
Uh...I don't get it. I thought Osterweis was a solid, even conservative, research-oriented shop. This seems like a pretty major mess-up & inability to properly evaluate a business.
@hank: I'm thinking of the $US market, and I'm thinking of the more portable stuff. I.e., an IWC Portugieser or Jaeger-LeCoultre or even (possibly) Piaget Altiplano Ultimate, rather than a one-off Lange & Sohne 8-day tourbillion or some MB&…
Of course, so much depends on one's financial situation, proximity to retirement, etc.
That said, here's one idea.
$20k - Treasuries or LCORX.
$25k - Fine Swiss timepieces (2-3 from the IWC, Breguet, Piaget, DeBethune families)
$20k - VGWLX
$20k -…
Lot of "household" names on that list. D&C, Templeton Global Bond, Blackrock Global Allocation. Been a rough ride for value shops, and active management. Could easily name a couple of other active shops that have really taken it on the chin.
