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Hi guys, So that was the correction...... we waited how long for that??! Good grief, Charlie Brown. Saying that, I did some buying on Tuesday. Added to FTIPX and opened a new position in FSHCX. On Wednesday, at the Dukester's urging, I doubled down on FSHCX. Other than that, I saw very little. God bless the Pudd
Added a bit to GSIHX and GQGPX. Pudd, if you like health care, look at medical devices. One year ago I bought IHI instead of Fidelitys fund in that space and sold PJP, and am not sorry. Still have diversified health care funds and am just slightly overweight in healthcare but comfortable with that.
I took about 2 units off the table today. Remember years back and Gary Smith identifying a 'true selling' day as one where all three major indices are down 1%. Well, this is the second one in about a week. I'm at Price and so use Spectrum Income RPSIX as a parking place.
Watching the insanity in DC and in East Lansing. My Spartan heart bleeds green for the survivors and victims that were ignored or denied due process.
I'm on the same page as rono and Gary. Took more profits from a few stocks that have done well, Visa, Valero Energy and Alibaba. I just don't think this is the time to be adding, short term anyway.
@rono, always liked the institution, Michigan State, but the alumni and people living in Lansing should be very pissed-off. Individuals, supposedly people in charge, have given a great university a black eye. I hope justice is served for these young ladies.
Entering today my only position was EIFAX at 90%. However don’t think floating rate/bank loans bond funds are necessarily a panacea for rising rates. I can see a lot that can go wrong there but until price shows some signs of slippage will stay put for now. This sector is massively overbought but has been so for some time. I am in retirement/preservation mode so my goals may vary from those not so inclined.
I had a dream (or was it something I read?) that convinced me it was a mistake to fully close out my position in IOFIX in January. So, I woke myself up enough to sell some PONDX and some PTIAX and buy back some IOFIX. Now back to SNOOZING...hopefully this time it will really be until next fall (unless the markets decide to go into a serious tailspin that necessitates some rebalancing!).
I spent (or rather didn't spend!) 2017 being severely under invested so... have been adding to: IHI, DGRW and CB (because of CEO & outstanding underwriting), and today added to: POSKX, POGRX, TRBCX, MGGPX, PRGTX, VINEX and VWIGX
An interesting week in the markets this week over last week took place. Last week the S&P 500 Index finished the week being up 7.5% for the year and this week giving much of those gains back (-4.2%) and now being up 3.3% for the year as the first week of February comes to a close.
Last week Old_Skeet's market barometer finished the week with a reading of 127 indicating the Index was extremely overbought. This week the barometer gained 17 points finishing the week with a reading of 144 indicating that the Index is towards the low range of overvalued and not far from moving into fair value range on the barometer's scale. Generally, a higher reading on the barometer indicates there is more investment value in the 500 Index over a lower reading. I don't think many of us on the board was to surprised at this sell off taking place. I know I wasn't.
My S&P 500 Index sector compass had some changes in the lead pack this week with XLI (industrials) and XLF (financials) moving in while XLY (consumer discretionay) remaining the lead and my spiff hound.
My global compass also had some changes in the lead pack with VTI (domestic stocks) moving in with EEM (emerging markets) remaining along with GSP (commodities) keeping the lead and my spiff hound.
One or two things will happen next week. Investors will again come to find value in stocks as earnings season reporting continues with some relative good numbers being reported or they will continue to sell off as interest rates rise with bonds becoming more competitive with stocks form a yield perspective. After all the US 10 Year finished the week with a yield of 2.84%. I'm finding the dividend on SPY at 1.70%. Stocks could also move sideways taking a look see.
I wonder if Ms. Yellen were to have continued as our FMOC Chairperson if this sell off would have taken place as she now ends her term? And, during her last week on the job stocks pullback. I'm thinking the stock gents are sending a message to Mr. Powell! This is how we roll ... and, don't do anything stupid.
I wonder if Ms. Yellen were to have continued as our FMOC Chairperson if this sell off would have taken place as she now ends her term? And, during her last week on the job stocks pullback. I'm thinking the stock gents are sending a message to Mr. Powell! This is how we roll ... and, don't do anything stupid.
Hi Ol’ Skeet, Thanks for the thoughts & updates,
I don’t think that’s it at all (the Yellen factor). Word regarding the (several) FOMC membership changes has been out for months. Basically, in the equity markets, we’ve had a runaway freight train without even a correction for something like 18 months now. Valuations have to be stretched. Add to that the era of easy money appears to be ending. It’s not really a “choice” the FOMC has to make. The numbers are getting hotter (inflation, debt, government funding needs, low unemployment numbers, etc.).
What precipitated today’s drop (which I think is only the beginning)? Hard to say. But I’ll speculate it’s the increasing instability of our governmental institutions. It’s spooking a lot of observers around the world - spooking investors as well. Me thinks that one is likely to get worse before it gets better.
Thanks for stopping by and making comment. I appreciate you posting your perspective.
Going back to my barometer report. The barometer indicated that stocks were becoming more attractive for purchase over what they were a week ago. Where they go in the short term is hard to call and with the valuation level they were selling at (overbought) ... Well at times they can become real skittish. I'm not surprised, at all, with stocks pulling back considering there will be a new Fed Chair arriving. Were the stock gents sending a message to the FMOC? Possibly. Can you say for sure they weren't? It's my perspective they were. What's the best way to halt rate increases? Have a stalling stock market just might be one of them. I'm thinking ... so goes the stock market ... so goes the economy. Do the Fed's kill the goose that lays the golden eggs? Perhaps they will if they do stupid stuff.
I can understand those investors short on cash wanting to sell ... book some profit ... and, raise their cash level. One of the things Old_Skeet has done over the past five years, or so, has been to reduce my allocation to equities at a measured pace and raise my cash and bond levels. So, I don't become as excited as some during a modest stock market pullback. In fact, I look at this perhaps developing into a decent pullback with a buying opportunity for some. I maybe one of them depending on how deep this pullback runs. When the barometer reaches a reading of around 156 ... I'll begin to make a buying assessment.
Now if you have faith and believe in the message our President delivered at Davos ... America is Open for Business ... then you've got to be prostocks and our economy. After all, he is the first business man to become President. This year I'm like some others I'm looking for some votatility with stocks grinding higher as we move through the year. I'm looking for the S&P 500 Index to grind at least to 2900 range ... maybe the 3000 range ... with a top line number if things go really well, with earnings, on up to the 3100 range.
As a long term investor, who trades around the edges, I have not called any of my spiff hounds home. I leave them to hunt.
The earning season is upon us and there are more reporting to come. What we are seeing this year is the beginning and there will be better entry points. I have ample cash from rebalancing several weeks ago.
Hi @Old_Skeet You're not suggesting conspiracy in the investment world, are you? If one has some belief in the technical side of things, the RSI-14 (relative strength) has been running hot into the overbought area. The normal suggested range for RSI-14 is 30 being the edge of oversold and 70 at the edge of being overbought. I'll pick only 2 sectors/tickers for reference: SPY and IXUS for a somewhat broad view. SPY started to move above a 70 reading about Sept. 25, 2017 and recently has been bumping along the 90 line. IXUS moved above 70 about April, 2017 and had been running in the upper 80's. After the sell down this past week, each are about at 68 and 65. With a presumption, as has been expressed over the past several years that 70% of the trades are electronically inspired by system algo's; I find it is not difficult to assume one or several large market participants starting a trigger reaction to the sell side strictly based on technical functions. Regards, Catch
There is a lot I don't know about electronic trading. But, I think it is possible for some of the computers to key off one another especially if they follow RSI. With this, yes ... I think it is indeed possible if one big trader starts selling then others will key off this lead and others follow.
I'm thinking some computers may key off of RSI while others might key off MFI, while others may key off news feeds, etc. or perhaps a combination of these plus some other stuff.
My market barometer keys off multi feeds. The big three are earnings, technical strength and breadth. In addition, I look at short interest plus a few others.
Take my lead spiff XLY on 1/26/2018 it's RSI was 87 and on 2/2/2018 it's RSI was 57 and was down for the week by 1.2%. Is this enough to warrant a sell? Well, it is if the computer is programed to sell with a certain percent drop is RSI.
So Catch... Can you say some traders not through collusion but through programed action decide to sell and other computer driven algo's follow. You now have what we just experienced but on a larger scale? So, if the FMOC does things that does not sit well with traders and they find great concern with this and place computer driven sells ... and, before long a sell off starts what is there to stop it? Can you say Flash Crash? Now, there are exchange stops that are suppose to prevent this. But, what happened in the past they moved through the stops so quickly well the security tanked.
So, yes I'm thinking messages can and probally have been sent through trading activity that if things are done that we feel stupid ... we are going to place sell orders.
Call it what you want ... It is my belief. To posture this I have provided a link that better explains the Trump plundge protection team. It is my belief there has been some buying activity at times to support the market. But, something I can not prove. It is just a belief.
1) The baramotor indicated that stocks were becoming more attractive for purchase ...
2) Now if you have faith and believe in the message our President delivered at Davos ... America is Open for Business ...
3) then you've got to be prostocks and our economy.
4) After all, he is the first business man to become President.
1) That’s baked in the cake. A lower price makes just about anything “more attractive for purchase.” It does not, however, suggest that the purchase price is reasonable or that the buyer will realize the cost of his investment anytime soon. Put simply, stocks could drop by 20%, become “more attractive”, and yet still remain at unreasonable valuations. Here is where I suspect a lot of inexperienced “buy the dip” investors are going to learn a harsh lesson over the ensuing months or years.
2) Pardon me, but my faith in the above-mentioned individual continues to wane. That said, I’ll applaud the clever rehetotical platitude to which you refer. Manuscripts have improved of late to where I’m wondering whether very apt and agile Peggy Noonen has joined the team.
3) I remain an “eternal bull” on world economic growth and correspondingly higher equity values over the long run. However, the latter need not rise in a straight line. In fact, it seldom does. As for U.S., I’m not the optimist of a decade or so ago. Reason: U.S. equities have always carried what I’ll term the “franchise premium”. This premium was based largely on our superior system of laws, courts, regulatory and enforcement agencies, and checks and balances as compared with many other global players. An investment in a U.S. company brought with it a greater degree of legal protection, (“insurance” if you will), in sharp contrast to other nations where politicallly expedient intervention, government sanctioned criminal enterprise, or outright confiscation of assets were much more likely. As our institutions continue to come under attack and erode, that degree of “franchise premium” is likely to diminish.
4) Not sure being a “businessman-politician” translates very well into higher GDP numbers or equity values. Nor does it insulate one from the unpredictable, sometimes harsh and unreasoned, vicissitudes of the global / domestic stock markets. Wasn’t George W. Bush also a “businessman” (energy / professional sports)? **
** “Equities fell 46% under the (George W.) Bush administration”
Interesting point #3 Hank. I (maybe we) probably don't give it much thought as a rule but I can see where perceived instability, real or otherwise, might come into play.
As an aside, my dividend growth portfolio was down 1.08% yesterday. While not pretty I'll take it considering the general pummeling that went on. On the bright side, none of the companies I employ cut or eliminated their dividends. Yay team.
Hi Slick, I looked up IHI. Looks very good. I put it on a watch.....pricey right now. Had a good year last year.....thanks. Like you, I am also overweight health right now.....I'm at 19%, so not by much. I'm playing FSHCX short term. It's down 6% now.....hope more next week......will add.....then, hope to see a bounce and will sell. No love here.....only green. It just amazes me when someone says Amazon how sh** hits the fan.....you would think all the 401 and IRA fools and retired people would know better than to run scared and sell so fast. It's good we have so many smart people on Wall Street to lead us and help us when we fall down.....lol. Just some thoughts on my portfolio: From this week, FMIJX down 1.97% since Tuesday. I expect that, but FJSCX down 2.05%. Wow! Stop the bus! Bigger yet, RAANX down 1.67%. This puppy is starting to impress me more and more. Biggest disappointment, VWINX down 1.81%. Hope to see more selling. Some players on my team are needing to step up or they will go. God bless the Pudd p.s. Would like to hear thoughts on other people's portfolios.
As to VWINX. We know this fund is not a long/short or hedged or other tricks, yes? The fund is a low turnover fund attempting to maintain a convsrvative balance. My check indicates the fund was down -2.1% for the week and down -.7% YTD. The fund is purely a victim of the markets. Its equity holdings are quality companies and its bond holdings are investment grade for the most part. Broad reference points for the bond sector may be, LQD . LQD is down -2.2% YTD. Even our well managed corporate bond fund FCBFX is down -1.4% YTD. We already know what happened this past week to the equity holdings.
The below chart link provides: July, 2008-July, 2009; for VWINX, SPY and IEF . I started the chart several months before and after the beginning/end of the market melt, as I feel it lends a better visual as to "changes". You may place the cursor/pointer onto any area of a graphic line for other data points. As to the chart, assuming one would have purchased 1/3 into each of the chart holdings; this would be the result on March 6, 2009:
--- IEF = +11% --- VWINX = -16% --- SPY = -44%
Lastly, by the time March of 2009 moved into place; much of the financial landscape as well as individual investors had discovered they were still not able to get the stains washed from their shorts. The coming downside violence of the markets had already shown its nasty face at least for the month of December, 2007. Things smoothed for a bit through mid-summer of 2008 before the big unwind. VWINX, at this time will not likely be able to obtain a "big" boost from bond holdings; as may have been the case in 2008/2009. I wish you well with RAANX . We sold our long held conservative FRIFX several weeks ago.
I adjusted your range out a bit to capture the last 350 days (70 weeks). We seem to have had quite a run. I marked the Nov '16 election and placed a "best fit" line for lows (S&P 500). Seems we are still 10% ahead of this line even with this last pull back.
You noted: There is a lot I don't know about electronic trading. But, I think it is possible for some of the computers to key off one another especially if they follow RSI. With this, yes ... I think it is indeed possible if one big trader starts selling then others will key off this lead and others follow. I'm thinking some computers may key off of RSI while others might key off MFI, while others may key off news feeds, etc. or perhaps a combination of these plus some other stuff. Take my lead spiff XLY on 1/26/2018 it's RSI was 87 and on 2/2/2018 it's RSI was 57 and was down for the week by 1.2%. Is this enough to warrant a sell? Well, it is if the computer is programed to sell with a certain percent drop is RSI.
>>>I will have to assume any number of methodologies are employed to establish a supposedly valid "algo" in combination with some human intervention for the best possible performance.
So Catch... Can you say some traders not through collusion but through programed action decide to sell and other computer driven algo's follow. You now have what we just experienced but on a larger scale? So, if the FMOC does things that does not sit well with traders and they find great concern with this and place computer driven sells ... and, before long a sell off starts what is there to stop it? Can you say Flash Crash? Now, there are exchange stops that are suppose to prevent this. But, what happened in the past they moved through the stops so quickly well the security tanked.
>>>With the amount of money being controlled by the large houses, central banks; and who knows how much from places of which we are not aware, I must presume pressure can or may be placed to force market directions be they equity or bond.
Call it what you want ... It is my belief. To posture this I have provided a link that better explains the Trump plundge protection team. It is my belief there has been some buying activity at times to support the market. But, something I can not prove. It is just a belief. >>> If a protection team/group is active and effective, one would likely prosper more so with an SP-500 style of holdings, as must of the "buy" actions would probably be centered around SP-500, E-mini contracts.
One person's take on the Plunge Protection Group (6 minute video), reportedly officially formed after the October, 1987 market melt. I offer no opinion, one way or the other about the value of the information presented in this video. Ben Bernanke remarks about the "team/group" are readily available with a search.
Lastly, I must agree in general with #3 in @hank prior post in this thread. Although the markets have continued to "blow off" all of the crazy in "DC"; the direction of the balance of power as defined by the Executive, Legislative and Judicial appears to be forming a "head". Obviously, I do not have access to all necessary data to know who, what, when and where is really broken, criminal or credible. However, my 4 years of military work and subsequent private sector employment allowed an 18 year old ,from rural roots, to discover the "separate realities" that co-exist for whomever and whatever to serve a current purpose or plan; always with the limitations of "need-to-know" basis. In light of actions in DC this past week, in particular; aside from effects upon the citizens of this country, I become more concerned with the view and perception of the global community towards this country's form of justice and democracy. As related to investments, one may wonder if a point is reached where any fundamental or technical aspects become overshadowed by deterioration of political and judicial functions in this country. As noted above, from age 18 for several years, allowed me to "view" another separate and co-existing reality. This, as well as living/traveling outside of the U.S. for a period of time; then having employment here in a traditional large corporate structure fully reinforced what most of us know; that there are "x" percentages of humans in all walks of life who are: honest, good, evil, corrupt and any other niche word one chooses to supply. The best and worse of a society value is dependent upon who, when and where folks in power arrive; and to what part of virtue that subscribe. We know from an overall make up of human nature, that there exists all of these types within the "DC" crowd. Would it not be nice and unique to place all of the information and facts before the citizens; with full access. 'Course, we really wouldn't know who is on the "need-to-know" list.
Hi @bee, Thank you for your efforts with the rework of this chart and the past similar charts, with the "eye catching" graphics you have presented for our benefit.
Thinking about VWINX and interest rate cycles got me to looking at the 1970's. VWINX struggled during 1973 and 1974 as the Fed was tightening and the stock market was declining. (Nixon resigned towards the end of 1974.) Patience is sometimes required even with this fund.
For a short history of interest rate cycles from the 1970's until the start of the current tightening cycle:
And, for a look at VWINX's performance during the 1970's view this chart (just click your back arrow to get back to this page after viewing the chart if the chart does not open in a separate tab):
The value of my accounts is almost exactly the same as the value on 1/1/18, within a couple hundred. Easy come - easy go. In perspective, I guess that's not bad. Down about 4% from my total portfolio high. I guess time will tell where the fall stops.
Old_Skeet's market barometer report ... an update.
Last week's close of 2/2/18 had a reading of 144 indicating that the S&P 500 Index was in the low range of overvalued.
Today's close of 2/05/18 had a reading of 151 indicating that the S&P 500 Index is now in the mid range of fair value.
Remember, there are many investors that are highly levered up in this market. With this, it is not a surprise, to me, this sell off has been quickly and deep as they reduce their leverage. And, although we are at fairvalue by the metrics of the barometer we probally have not reached the trough.
I've got my buy list made. Awaiting a reading of 156 (undervalued) where I plan to start making step buys in targeted securities.
Having just fallen off the turnip truck, I was completely blind-sided by it all. Suppose the next thing they’ll tell me is there’s no Santa Clause or Easter Bunny.
Just put sell order for FPACX, one of my long term holdings - brought in 2006. Not very happy with its recent (3+ years of performance) though I made decent money since I bought it. Also, put sell order for GLFOX to keep the gains made so far despite it is - 7% YTD.
Initiated a postion in HJPSX.
The above all is in IRA accounts.
Moved some cash to stocks in my 401k. I am down to 30% cash now (when I had to switch my 401k account at the beginning of 2017 due to my employer acquisition, I put most of the funds in stable value fund thinking the market was high, which in retrospect was a bad decision. I gradually brought down the stable value fund to 40% by the end of 2017 and now it is at 30%. If market goes further down, I will keep adding to stock funds)
Not budging until the dust settles, but am looking at a slight strategic reallocation of some of our corporate income PRPIX holdings to dividend growth PRDGX simply based upon the tax cut. Between lower taxes and repatriated dollars, companies are cash flush. Indeed, they are so flush, they are searching for things to do with it . . . give the workers a bonus, buy back stocks, raise the dividend and pay off debt. "sing a few songs. tell a few jokes".
Comments
I took about 2 units off the table today. Remember years back and Gary Smith identifying a 'true selling' day as one where all three major indices are down 1%. Well, this is the second one in about a week. I'm at Price and so use Spectrum Income RPSIX as a parking place.
Watching the insanity in DC and in East Lansing. My Spartan heart bleeds green for the survivors and victims that were ignored or denied due process.
and so it goes,
peace,
rono
@rono, always liked the institution, Michigan State, but the alumni and people living in Lansing should be very pissed-off. Individuals, supposedly people in charge, have given a great university a black eye. I hope justice is served for these young ladies.
An interesting week in the markets this week over last week took place. Last week the S&P 500 Index finished the week being up 7.5% for the year and this week giving much of those gains back (-4.2%) and now being up 3.3% for the year as the first week of February comes to a close.
Last week Old_Skeet's market barometer finished the week with a reading of 127 indicating the Index was extremely overbought. This week the barometer gained 17 points finishing the week with a reading of 144 indicating that the Index is towards the low range of overvalued and not far from moving into fair value range on the barometer's scale. Generally, a higher reading on the barometer indicates there is more investment value in the 500 Index over a lower reading. I don't think many of us on the board was to surprised at this sell off taking place. I know I wasn't.
My S&P 500 Index sector compass had some changes in the lead pack this week with XLI (industrials) and XLF (financials) moving in while XLY (consumer discretionay) remaining the lead and my spiff hound.
My global compass also had some changes in the lead pack with VTI (domestic stocks) moving in with EEM (emerging markets) remaining along with GSP (commodities) keeping the lead and my spiff hound.
One or two things will happen next week. Investors will again come to find value in stocks as earnings season reporting continues with some relative good numbers being reported or they will continue to sell off as interest rates rise with bonds becoming more competitive with stocks form a yield perspective. After all the US 10 Year finished the week with a yield of 2.84%. I'm finding the dividend on SPY at 1.70%. Stocks could also move sideways taking a look see.
I wonder if Ms. Yellen were to have continued as our FMOC Chairperson if this sell off would have taken place as she now ends her term? And, during her last week on the job stocks pullback. I'm thinking the stock gents are sending a message to Mr. Powell! This is how we roll ... and, don't do anything stupid.
I don’t think that’s it at all (the Yellen factor). Word regarding the (several) FOMC membership changes has been out for months. Basically, in the equity markets, we’ve had a runaway freight train without even a correction for something like 18 months now. Valuations have to be stretched. Add to that the era of easy money appears to be ending. It’s not really a “choice” the FOMC has to make. The numbers are getting hotter (inflation, debt, government funding needs, low unemployment numbers, etc.).
What precipitated today’s drop (which I think is only the beginning)? Hard to say. But I’ll speculate it’s the increasing instability of our governmental institutions. It’s spooking a lot of observers around the world - spooking investors as well. Me thinks that one is likely to get worse before it gets better.
Regards
Thanks for stopping by and making comment. I appreciate you posting your perspective.
Going back to my barometer report. The barometer indicated that stocks were becoming more attractive for purchase over what they were a week ago. Where they go in the short term is hard to call and with the valuation level they were selling at (overbought) ... Well at times they can become real skittish. I'm not surprised, at all, with stocks pulling back considering there will be a new Fed Chair arriving. Were the stock gents sending a message to the FMOC? Possibly. Can you say for sure they weren't? It's my perspective they were. What's the best way to halt rate increases? Have a stalling stock market just might be one of them. I'm thinking ... so goes the stock market ... so goes the economy. Do the Fed's kill the goose that lays the golden eggs? Perhaps they will if they do stupid stuff.
I can understand those investors short on cash wanting to sell ... book some profit ... and, raise their cash level. One of the things Old_Skeet has done over the past five years, or so, has been to reduce my allocation to equities at a measured pace and raise my cash and bond levels. So, I don't become as excited as some during a modest stock market pullback. In fact, I look at this perhaps developing into a decent pullback with a buying opportunity for some. I maybe one of them depending on how deep this pullback runs. When the barometer reaches a reading of around 156 ... I'll begin to make a buying assessment.
Now if you have faith and believe in the message our President delivered at Davos ... America is Open for Business ... then you've got to be prostocks and our economy. After all, he is the first business man to become President. This year I'm like some others I'm looking for some votatility with stocks grinding higher as we move through the year. I'm looking for the S&P 500 Index to grind at least to 2900 range ... maybe the 3000 range ... with a top line number if things go really well, with earnings, on up to the 3100 range.
As a long term investor, who trades around the edges, I have not called any of my spiff hounds home. I leave them to hunt.
Thanks again for making comment.
Old_Skeet
You're not suggesting conspiracy in the investment world, are you?
If one has some belief in the technical side of things, the RSI-14 (relative strength) has been running hot into the overbought area. The normal suggested range for RSI-14 is 30 being the edge of oversold and 70 at the edge of being overbought.
I'll pick only 2 sectors/tickers for reference: SPY and IXUS for a somewhat broad view.
SPY started to move above a 70 reading about Sept. 25, 2017 and recently has been bumping along the 90 line. IXUS moved above 70 about April, 2017 and had been running in the upper 80's. After the sell down this past week, each are about at 68 and 65.
With a presumption, as has been expressed over the past several years that 70% of the trades are electronically inspired by system algo's; I find it is not difficult to assume one or several large market participants starting a trigger reaction to the sell side strictly based on technical functions.
Regards,
Catch
There is a lot I don't know about electronic trading. But, I think it is possible for some of the computers to key off one another especially if they follow RSI. With this, yes ... I think it is indeed possible if one big trader starts selling then others will key off this lead and others follow.
I'm thinking some computers may key off of RSI while others might key off MFI, while others may key off news feeds, etc. or perhaps a combination of these plus some other stuff.
My market barometer keys off multi feeds. The big three are earnings, technical strength and breadth. In addition, I look at short interest plus a few others.
Take my lead spiff XLY on 1/26/2018 it's RSI was 87 and on 2/2/2018 it's RSI was 57 and was down for the week by 1.2%. Is this enough to warrant a sell? Well, it is if the computer is programed to sell with a certain percent drop is RSI.
So Catch... Can you say some traders not through collusion but through programed action decide to sell and other computer driven algo's follow. You now have what we just experienced but on a larger scale? So, if the FMOC does things that does not sit well with traders and they find great concern with this and place computer driven sells ... and, before long a sell off starts what is there to stop it? Can you say Flash Crash? Now, there are exchange stops that are suppose to prevent this. But, what happened in the past they moved through the stops so quickly well the security tanked.
So, yes I'm thinking messages can and probally have been sent through trading activity that if things are done that we feel stupid ... we are going to place sell orders.
Call it what you want ... It is my belief. To posture this I have provided a link that better explains the Trump plundge protection team. It is my belief there has been some buying activity at times to support the market. But, something I can not prove. It is just a belief.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4042714-sentiment-speaks-trump-announced-new-plunge-protection-team-market-will-never-experience
1) That’s baked in the cake. A lower price makes just about anything “more attractive for purchase.” It does not, however, suggest that the purchase price is reasonable or that the buyer will realize the cost of his investment anytime soon. Put simply, stocks could drop by 20%, become “more attractive”, and yet still remain at unreasonable valuations. Here is where I suspect a lot of inexperienced “buy the dip” investors are going to learn a harsh lesson over the ensuing months or years.
2) Pardon me, but my faith in the above-mentioned individual continues to wane. That said, I’ll applaud the clever rehetotical platitude to which you refer. Manuscripts have improved of late to where I’m wondering whether very apt and agile Peggy Noonen has joined the team.
3) I remain an “eternal bull” on world economic growth and correspondingly higher equity values over the long run. However, the latter need not rise in a straight line. In fact, it seldom does. As for U.S., I’m not the optimist of a decade or so ago. Reason: U.S. equities have always carried what I’ll term the “franchise premium”. This premium was based largely on our superior system of laws, courts, regulatory and enforcement agencies, and checks and balances as compared with many other global players. An investment in a U.S. company brought with it a greater degree of legal protection, (“insurance” if you will), in sharp contrast to other nations where politicallly expedient intervention, government sanctioned criminal enterprise, or outright confiscation of assets were much more likely. As our institutions continue to come under attack and erode, that degree of “franchise premium” is likely to diminish.
4) Not sure being a “businessman-politician” translates very well into higher GDP numbers or equity values. Nor does it insulate one from the unpredictable, sometimes harsh and unreasoned, vicissitudes of the global / domestic stock markets. Wasn’t George W. Bush also a “businessman” (energy / professional sports)? **
** “Equities fell 46% under the (George W.) Bush administration”
https://www.cheatsheet.com/stocks/presidential-stock-market-scorecards-reagan-to-obama.html/?a=viewall
As an aside, my dividend growth portfolio was down 1.08% yesterday. While not pretty I'll take it considering the general pummeling that went on. On the bright side, none of the companies I employ cut or eliminated their dividends. Yay team.
I looked up IHI. Looks very good. I put it on a watch.....pricey right now. Had a good year last year.....thanks. Like you, I am also overweight health right now.....I'm at 19%, so not by much. I'm playing FSHCX short term. It's down 6% now.....hope more next week......will add.....then, hope to see a bounce and will sell. No love here.....only green.
It just amazes me when someone says Amazon how sh** hits the fan.....you would think all the 401 and IRA fools and retired people would know better than to run scared and sell so fast. It's good we have so many smart people on Wall Street to lead us and help us when we fall down.....lol.
Just some thoughts on my portfolio:
From this week, FMIJX down 1.97% since Tuesday. I expect that, but FJSCX down 2.05%. Wow! Stop the bus! Bigger yet, RAANX down 1.67%. This puppy is starting to impress me more and more. Biggest disappointment, VWINX down 1.81%. Hope to see more selling. Some players on my team are needing to step up or they will go.
God bless
the Pudd
p.s. Would like to hear thoughts on other people's portfolios.
As to VWINX. We know this fund is not a long/short or hedged or other tricks, yes? The fund is a low turnover fund attempting to maintain a convsrvative balance. My check indicates the fund was down -2.1% for the week and down -.7% YTD. The fund is purely a victim of the markets. Its equity holdings are quality companies and its bond holdings are investment grade for the most part. Broad reference points for the bond sector may be, LQD . LQD is down -2.2% YTD. Even our well managed corporate bond fund FCBFX is down -1.4% YTD. We already know what happened this past week to the equity holdings.
The below chart link provides: July, 2008-July, 2009; for VWINX, SPY and IEF . I started the chart several months before and after the beginning/end of the market melt, as I feel it lends a better visual as to "changes".
You may place the cursor/pointer onto any area of a graphic line for other data points.
As to the chart, assuming one would have purchased 1/3 into each of the chart holdings; this would be the result on March 6, 2009:
--- IEF = +11%
--- VWINX = -16%
--- SPY = -44%
Lastly, by the time March of 2009 moved into place; much of the financial landscape as well as individual investors had discovered they were still not able to get the stains washed from their shorts. The coming downside violence of the markets had already shown its nasty face at least for the month of December, 2007. Things smoothed for a bit through mid-summer of 2008 before the big unwind.
VWINX, at this time will not likely be able to obtain a "big" boost from bond holdings; as may have been the case in 2008/2009.
I wish you well with RAANX . We sold our long held conservative FRIFX several weeks ago.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?VWINX,SPY,IEF&l=1505&r=1756&O=011000
My non-inflation adjusted view.
Take care,
Catch
I adjusted your range out a bit to capture the last 350 days (70 weeks). We seem to have had quite a run. I marked the Nov '16 election and placed a "best fit" line for lows (S&P 500). Seems we are still 10% ahead of this line even with this last pull back.
You noted:
There is a lot I don't know about electronic trading. But, I think it is possible for some of the computers to key off one another especially if they follow RSI. With this, yes ... I think it is indeed possible if one big trader starts selling then others will key off this lead and others follow.
I'm thinking some computers may key off of RSI while others might key off MFI, while others may key off news feeds, etc. or perhaps a combination of these plus some other stuff.
Take my lead spiff XLY on 1/26/2018 it's RSI was 87 and on 2/2/2018 it's RSI was 57 and was down for the week by 1.2%. Is this enough to warrant a sell? Well, it is if the computer is programed to sell with a certain percent drop is RSI.
>>>I will have to assume any number of methodologies are employed to establish a supposedly valid "algo" in combination with some human intervention for the best possible performance.
So Catch... Can you say some traders not through collusion but through programed action decide to sell and other computer driven algo's follow. You now have what we just experienced but on a larger scale? So, if the FMOC does things that does not sit well with traders and they find great concern with this and place computer driven sells ... and, before long a sell off starts what is there to stop it? Can you say Flash Crash? Now, there are exchange stops that are suppose to prevent this. But, what happened in the past they moved through the stops so quickly well the security tanked.
>>>With the amount of money being controlled by the large houses, central banks; and who knows how much from places of which we are not aware, I must presume pressure can or may be placed to force market directions be they equity or bond.
Wall Street's speed war-Forbes
High speed trading upgrades
Call it what you want ... It is my belief. To posture this I have provided a link that better explains the Trump plundge protection team. It is my belief there has been some buying activity at times to support the market. But, something I can not prove. It is just a belief.
>>> If a protection team/group is active and effective, one would likely prosper more so with an SP-500 style of holdings, as must of the "buy" actions would probably be centered around SP-500, E-mini contracts.
One person's take on the Plunge Protection Group (6 minute video), reportedly officially formed after the October, 1987 market melt. I offer no opinion, one way or the other about the value of the information presented in this video. Ben Bernanke remarks about the "team/group" are readily available with a search.
Lastly, I must agree in general with #3 in @hank prior post in this thread. Although the markets have continued to "blow off" all of the crazy in "DC"; the direction of the balance of power as defined by the Executive, Legislative and Judicial appears to be forming a "head". Obviously, I do not have access to all necessary data to know who, what, when and where is really broken, criminal or credible. However, my 4 years of military work and subsequent private sector employment allowed an 18 year old ,from rural roots, to discover the "separate realities" that co-exist for whomever and whatever to serve a current purpose or plan; always with the limitations of "need-to-know" basis. In light of actions in DC this past week, in particular; aside from effects upon the citizens of this country, I become more concerned with the view and perception of the global community towards this country's form of justice and democracy. As related to investments, one may wonder if a point is reached where any fundamental or technical aspects become overshadowed by deterioration of political and judicial functions in this country. As noted above, from age 18 for several years, allowed me to "view" another separate and co-existing reality. This, as well as living/traveling outside of the U.S. for a period of time; then having employment here in a traditional large corporate structure fully reinforced what most of us know; that there are "x" percentages of humans in all walks of life who are: honest, good, evil, corrupt and any other niche word one chooses to supply. The best and worse of a society value is dependent upon who, when and where folks in power arrive; and to what part of virtue that subscribe. We know from an overall make up of human nature, that there exists all of these types within the "DC" crowd.
Would it not be nice and unique to place all of the information and facts before the citizens; with full access. 'Course, we really wouldn't know who is on the "need-to-know" list.
Okay, tis all for me.
Take care,
Catch
Thank you for your efforts with the rework of this chart and the past similar charts, with the "eye catching" graphics you have presented for our benefit.
For a short history of interest rate cycles from the 1970's until the start of the current tightening cycle:
http://www.businessinsider.com/every-interest-rate-cycle-since-1970s-2015-12/#march-1972-to-late-august-1973-1
And, for a look at VWINX's performance during the 1970's view this chart (just click your back arrow to get back to this page after viewing the chart if the chart does not open in a separate tab):
VWINX
FYI.....for those who are interested.
heres-where-buyers-will-step-in-as-stocks-keep-falling-say-chart-watchers
The value of my accounts is almost exactly the same as the value on 1/1/18, within a couple hundred. Easy come - easy go. In perspective, I guess that's not bad. Down about 4% from my total portfolio high. I guess time will tell where the fall stops.
Hey, this didn't sneak up on anyone - did it?
Last week's close of 2/2/18 had a reading of 144 indicating that the S&P 500 Index was in the low range of overvalued.
Today's close of 2/05/18 had a reading of 151 indicating that the S&P 500 Index is now in the mid range of fair value.
Remember, there are many investors that are highly levered up in this market. With this, it is not a surprise, to me, this sell off has been quickly and deep as they reduce their leverage. And, although we are at fairvalue by the metrics of the barometer we probally have not reached the trough.
I've got my buy list made. Awaiting a reading of 156 (undervalued) where I plan to start making step buys in targeted securities.
Having just fallen off the turnip truck, I was completely blind-sided by it all. Suppose the next thing they’ll tell me is there’s no Santa Clause or Easter Bunny.
Initiated a postion in HJPSX.
The above all is in IRA accounts.
Moved some cash to stocks in my 401k. I am down to 30% cash now (when I had to switch my 401k account at the beginning of 2017 due to my employer acquisition, I put most of the funds in stable value fund thinking the market was high, which in retrospect was a bad decision. I gradually brought down the stable value fund to 40% by the end of 2017 and now it is at 30%. If market goes further down, I will keep adding to stock funds)
Not budging until the dust settles, but am looking at a slight strategic reallocation of some of our corporate income PRPIX holdings to dividend growth PRDGX simply based upon the tax cut. Between lower taxes and repatriated dollars, companies are cash flush. Indeed, they are so flush, they are searching for things to do with it . . . give the workers a bonus, buy back stocks, raise the dividend and pay off debt. "sing a few songs. tell a few jokes".
And so it goes,
peace,
rono