Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
“Since, I have no idea how low the Index is going to fall before it gains traction I plan to open a new spiff position tomorrow in a diverified stock fund. I'll average into this position with at least two more planned buys.
... With all the noise about the market you'd think things are really really bad. However, year-to-date I am down just short of 2.0% while the S&P 500 Index, which the barometer follows, is down just short of 3.5%.”
Thanks Ol’Skeet,
Interesting commentary. I’m often a fan of falling knives and sometimes willing to take a stab at snaring a bottom. But not this one baby, Economy’s been hot due to (1) abnormally / artificially low interest rates and (2) the wealth effect from rapid appreciation of everything from art, to cyber currency, to equities. Knock 15-20% off the equity indexes over a couple months period and you’ll see a much different consumer.
Not altering the plan or selling, but sure ain’t buying at these levels either. I’m a bit high on the cash side, so as unexpected needs for cash / IRA distributions arise, I’ll pull from the cash side. Over time that will have the same effect as adding equities - but in a more measured fashion.
Now ... knock another 5-10% off today’s close and I’ll start to nibble around the edges. Real estate / energy / commodities are taking it on the chin. That’s likely where I’d start to nibble if prices stay down.
I think that it is important to know that Old_Skeet is invested within his asset allocation and holding a good bit of cash. Interesting Friday is soon to arrive.
Well ... "Interesting Friday" is now yesterday. Thanks @hank for the "Annie" piece.
Going back to Thursday's barometer report with a reading of 161 indicating that the S&P 500 Index (which has been the higest reading since Trump was elected President) was on the borderline between undervalued and oversold, finished the week with a reading of 159 putting it in the top range of undervalued for the 500 Index based upon the barometer's metrics. Interestingly, during the week the short interest has dropped form 1.9 days to cover to 1.4 . Seems, the market might be working on a bottom formation. The queston remains ... Is this so? or ... Will the sell off continue?
For Old_Skeet's 500 Index Compass the pack consist of XLI (industrials) ... XLF (financials) ... and, XLY (discretionary) which is the lead hound and also my spiff hound.
For Old_Skeet's Global Compass there was a big shake up in the pack this week with GSP (commodities) falling from the leader of the pack back deep, in, with the hunt dogs. Replacing it within the pack is VT (global equities) with the two remaing hounds being EEM (emerging markets) and VTI (domestic equities). Commodities still remain my spiff hound (at present) and if it can not soon find traction commodities will soon loose spiff status. A good number of the talking heads are touting commodities saying this is a good place to be so I might double down. We'll just have to see how this goes. In addition, I did a little buying (this week) in a diverisfied domestic stock fund.
Glad you liked the Annie audio. Of course, the Mammas & Pappas had a hit, Monday, Monday, in the 60s that was much more dire. So we shall see.
Actually, despite my reservations, I flung bit in the direction of real asset funds Friday, including a REIT fund that had fallen off the cliff this year. That due to how unbalanced that portion of the portfolio had gotten. Not sure how well it worked. Dow was down 500 when I decided to buy but finished up 330. REITs had their best day in a while - mine gaining around 2.5%. Precious metals, however, backtracked a bit.
Remain highly skeptical of global equity markets. Time will tell. But I think there will be much better buying opportunities for the patient investor.
Dow up 2% takes my breath away. I've done nothing since the current turbulence started. When "the eagle spits" next, I'll begin a toe-hold in a Pennsylvania bank, BMTC, Bryn Mawr Trust, via DSPP. Very low fees. A good plan.
Today Old_Skeet's market barometer which follows the S&P 500 Index closed the day with a reading of 153 putting the Index in the upper range of fair vaue on the barometer's scale.
Within Old_Skeet's Global Compass with GSP (commodities) falling from the lead pack last week EEM (emerging markets) has now become the new spiff hound.
Within the 500 Index Sector Compass XLY (discretionary) remains the spiff hound.
The next undate is scheduled for Friday February 16th unless market conditions warrant otherwise.
@Old_Skeet , just curious, are you playing these spiff hounds or just reporting what sectors are doing best at the time? Seems very hard to find an investable momentum index in this volatility.
Hi @MikeM, I've got real money on the spiffs. Direction is not hard to find. With this, the spiff money moves with each spiff change. Periodically, I'll take some to my pocket if I feel the position has grown to large. I'm currently keeping the spiff sleeve at about 5%, and no more than 10%, of the growth area of the portfolio.
Currently, the two spiffs held center around the sector compass and global compass. A third spiff can be held if felt warranted. Generally, I use a rolling 90 day performance period to select the spiff and pack hounds and as long as the spiff hound can maintain lead pack status it keeps the spiff until it falls from the pack as GSP did in the global compass last week. Then a new spiff hound is selected and the spiff money moves to it.
It is a simple momentum based strategy that keeps the money in the faster moving market currents based upon assets held within in each compass. The third spiff, when held, can be a wild card of sorts. In the past, it was style based (large cap growth, etc); but, again, it can be anything including another sector fund.
For the past couple of years I held no spiffs. However, this past fall I opened a spiff on the consumer discretionary sector as we approached the Christmas shopping season and also in commodities as they began to climb in valuation (late fall). Now the spiff money that was on commodities has been moved to emerging markets.
Should the spiff hounds not be able to out run the bond hound then the positions get closed (presveration of principal) ... and/or I get tired of playing the spiffs. In addition, they have to perform better than the bogey hound.
@Crash What is the attraction for BMTC ? Thanks, Catch
Hey, @Catch22. I've been watching and watching BMTC, back into last year, maybe 2016. The dividend is not astronomical, but the financials look good. At the moment, M* says it's "fairly valued." I don't want it to run up any further on me. Over 2017, wifey and I were saving and saving, so we could SPEND. Now, the major spending is behind us. Forecast P/E = 15. Target price = $50.55 and expected earnings growing. Many moons ago, I lived in Bryn Mawr--- the CHEAP side of town. https://stockflare.com/stock/bmtc.o
Hi guys, Just to catch up on some trades from last week and this one, so far. No special order.....added to FLPSX, FMIJX .... they have cash in their portfolio, so I added some to them. FTIPX, FUSVX, also FJSCX, UMBMX ..... added to them as well. Then, also sold RAANX---not all keeping a toehold. And sold GIBLX all. Started new positions in FRBAX and FSDAX. God bless the Pudd
@Ted: I use PYACX for investment grade corp bond space, a relatively new one for me, about 18 months since I first added it. Its about 80% BBB and above. I have not been 100% convinced corporate bonds is a place to be for more than a small allocation but keeping it for now
Last week Old_Skeet's market barometer finished the week with a reading of 159 putting it in the upper range of undervalued for the S&P 500 Index. This week it finished the week with a reading of 149 putting it in the middle of fair value on the barometer's scale. Generally, a higher reading on the barometer's scale indicates more investment value in the Index over a lower reading. For the year the barometer's reading peaked at 159 for the weekending of 2/9/2018 indicating the Index was undervalued and the lowest reading on the barometer came on 1/26/2018 at 127 indicating that the Index was extremely overbought. As you can see there has been some good range movement in the barometer's weekly readings. Since stocks have now found their way back to fair value they will perhaps move sideways (and range bound) for a while. Anyway, that is my thinking.
Within Old_Skeet's 500 Compass the lead pack consist of XLI (industrials), XLF (financials) and XLY (discretionary). XLY remains the lead hound and also my spiff hound.
Within Old_Skeet's Global Compass the lead pack consist of VT (global equities), VTI (domestic equities) and EEM (emerging markets) EEM remains the lead hound and is also my new spiff hound since GSP (commodities) faltered and lost pack status last week. With this the spiff moved to EEM.
During the swoon Old_Skeet did a little buying plus I reconfigured my income sleeve this past week. During the swoon I added to one of my stock funds (FDSAX). This past week I sold off three of my income funds FMTNX, LALDX and THIFX. I reposition a good bit of the money back into funds held within the income sleeve BAICX and CTFAX plus some went to PMAIX (global hybrid sleeve) along with pulling some aside for a possible third spiff. In addition, in my spiff sleeve there was a leadership change as GSP (commodities) faltered, last week, and was removed with the new spiff hound becoming EEM (emerging markets).
Why Has the Stock Market Risen So Much Since the US Presidential Election?
Olivier Blanchard (PIIE), Christopher G. Collins (Federal Reserve Board of Governors), Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar (Federal Reserve Board of Governors), Thomas Pellet (PIIE) and Beth Anne Wilson (Federal Reserve Board of Governors)
Olivier Blanchard and coauthors conclude that increases in actual and expected stock dividends since November 2016 explain a little more than one half of the 25 percent run-up in the S&P 500 since then. The effects of the perceived probability that a corporate tax cut bill would pass Congress account for another 2 to 6 percentage points of the increase. The rest can be attributed to a decrease of less than 100 basis points in the equity premium, a decrease that leaves it roughly equal to where it was in the mid-2000s.
This week Old_Skeet's market barometer closed the week (and month end being the last Friday of the month) with a reading of 147 putting the S&P 500 Index in the lower range of fair value on the barometer's scale.
Within Old_Skeet's 500 Compass the pack consist of XLI (industrials), XLF (financials) and XLY (discretionary) which has remained the lead and spiff hound since the beginning of the year. However, XLF has found it's legs and is moving up strongly and might soon become the lead hound. As long as XLY can maintain pack status it will remain the spiff hound.
Within Old_Skeet's Global Compass the pack consist of EEM (emerging markets), VTI (domestic stocks) and GSP (commodities) which has found it's legs and has moved from back in the hunt to not only regaining pack status but has become the lead hound. EEM remains the spiff hound since it still holds pack status.
Morn'in @Old_Skeet I've likely missed something from one your earlier posts; but with the SPDR etf's you post regarding leaders, I don't find either the technology or health sectors being mentioned. Technology has remained the best performer year over year. What am I missing regarding your methodology? Do you compare and monitor all 10 sectors? The below link is all 10 SPDR sectors for YTD.
Naturally, to explain the workings of the compasses with each posting would be very redundant.
If you wish to follow the hounds in the 500 Compass you can do so through this link. Just click on the 90 day performance. I have them set up in a special portfolio that I use to follow them. But, the link below will work for the 500 Compass.
Okay..........so what are you doing with this data?
Are you trading these etf's?
Does this data affect your decisions about any of your holdings?
I recall your holdings are diverse funds and not likely directly affected by sector movements.
An exception I find for funds that are diverse in the holdings is whether they be growth or value oriented. "The music is all around us, all we have to do...is listen"
Comments
Interesting commentary. I’m often a fan of falling knives and sometimes willing to take a stab at snaring a bottom. But not this one baby, Economy’s been hot due to (1) abnormally / artificially low interest rates and (2) the wealth effect from rapid appreciation of everything from art, to cyber currency, to equities. Knock 15-20% off the equity indexes over a couple months period and you’ll see a much different consumer.
Not altering the plan or selling, but sure ain’t buying at these levels either. I’m a bit high on the cash side, so as unexpected needs for cash / IRA distributions arise, I’ll pull from the cash side. Over time that will have the same effect as adding equities - but in a more measured fashion.
Now ... knock another 5-10% off today’s close and I’ll start to nibble around the edges. Real estate / energy / commodities are taking it on the chin. That’s likely where I’d start to nibble if prices stay down.
Wishing you lots of luck.
You might like this song Ol’Skeet, Regards.
Well ... "Interesting Friday" is now yesterday. Thanks @hank for the "Annie" piece.
Going back to Thursday's barometer report with a reading of 161 indicating that the S&P 500 Index (which has been the higest reading since Trump was elected President) was on the borderline between undervalued and oversold, finished the week with a reading of 159 putting it in the top range of undervalued for the 500 Index based upon the barometer's metrics. Interestingly, during the week the short interest has dropped form 1.9 days to cover to 1.4 . Seems, the market might be working on a bottom formation. The queston remains ... Is this so? or ... Will the sell off continue?
For Old_Skeet's 500 Index Compass the pack consist of XLI (industrials) ... XLF (financials) ... and, XLY (discretionary) which is the lead hound and also my spiff hound.
For Old_Skeet's Global Compass there was a big shake up in the pack this week with GSP (commodities) falling from the leader of the pack back deep, in, with the hunt dogs. Replacing it within the pack is VT (global equities) with the two remaing hounds being EEM (emerging markets) and VTI (domestic equities). Commodities still remain my spiff hound (at present) and if it can not soon find traction commodities will soon loose spiff status. A good number of the talking heads are touting commodities saying this is a good place to be so I might double down. We'll just have to see how this goes. In addition, I did a little buying (this week) in a diverisfied domestic stock fund.
Thanks for stopping by and reading.
I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet
Glad you liked the Annie audio. Of course, the Mammas & Pappas had a hit, Monday, Monday, in the 60s that was much more dire. So we shall see.
Actually, despite my reservations, I flung bit in the direction of real asset funds Friday, including a REIT fund that had fallen off the cliff this year. That due to how unbalanced that portion of the portfolio had gotten. Not sure how well it worked. Dow was down 500 when I decided to buy but finished up 330. REITs had their best day in a while - mine gaining around 2.5%. Precious metals, however, backtracked a bit.
Remain highly skeptical of global equity markets. Time will tell. But I think there will be much better buying opportunities for the patient investor.
Regards
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/directstockpurchaseplan.asp
What is the attraction for BMTC ?
Thanks,
Catch
Today Old_Skeet's market barometer which follows the S&P 500 Index closed the day with a reading of 153 putting the Index in the upper range of fair vaue on the barometer's scale.
Within Old_Skeet's Global Compass with GSP (commodities) falling from the lead pack last week EEM (emerging markets) has now become the new spiff hound.
Within the 500 Index Sector Compass XLY (discretionary) remains the spiff hound.
The next undate is scheduled for Friday February 16th unless market conditions warrant otherwise.
Currently, the two spiffs held center around the sector compass and global compass. A third spiff can be held if felt warranted. Generally, I use a rolling 90 day performance period to select the spiff and pack hounds and as long as the spiff hound can maintain lead pack status it keeps the spiff until it falls from the pack as GSP did in the global compass last week. Then a new spiff hound is selected and the spiff money moves to it.
It is a simple momentum based strategy that keeps the money in the faster moving market currents based upon assets held within in each compass. The third spiff, when held, can be a wild card of sorts. In the past, it was style based (large cap growth, etc); but, again, it can be anything including another sector fund.
For the past couple of years I held no spiffs. However, this past fall I opened a spiff on the consumer discretionary sector as we approached the Christmas shopping season and also in commodities as they began to climb in valuation (late fall). Now the spiff money that was on commodities has been moved to emerging markets.
Should the spiff hounds not be able to out run the bond hound then the positions get closed (presveration of principal) ... and/or I get tired of playing the spiffs. In addition, they have to perform better than the bogey hound.
Forecast P/E = 15. Target price = $50.55 and expected earnings growing. Many moons ago, I lived in Bryn Mawr--- the CHEAP side of town.
https://stockflare.com/stock/bmtc.o
https://www-us.computershare.com/investor/3x/plans/planslist.asp PNM
https://www-us.computershare.com/investor/3x/plans/planslist.asp BMTC
I guess the main attraction is very low minimums to get in.
Just to catch up on some trades from last week and this one, so far. No special order.....added to FLPSX, FMIJX .... they have cash in their portfolio, so I added some to them. FTIPX, FUSVX, also FJSCX, UMBMX ..... added to them as well. Then, also sold RAANX---not all keeping a toehold. And sold GIBLX all. Started new positions in FRBAX and FSDAX.
God bless
the Pudd
I like your venture into FSDAX.
Regards,
Ted
Last week Old_Skeet's market barometer finished the week with a reading of 159 putting it in the upper range of undervalued for the S&P 500 Index. This week it finished the week with a reading of 149 putting it in the middle of fair value on the barometer's scale. Generally, a higher reading on the barometer's scale indicates more investment value in the Index over a lower reading. For the year the barometer's reading peaked at 159 for the weekending of 2/9/2018 indicating the Index was undervalued and the lowest reading on the barometer came on 1/26/2018 at 127 indicating that the Index was extremely overbought. As you can see there has been some good range movement in the barometer's weekly readings. Since stocks have now found their way back to fair value they will perhaps move sideways (and range bound) for a while. Anyway, that is my thinking.
Within Old_Skeet's 500 Compass the lead pack consist of XLI (industrials), XLF (financials) and XLY (discretionary). XLY remains the lead hound and also my spiff hound.
Within Old_Skeet's Global Compass the lead pack consist of VT (global equities), VTI (domestic equities) and EEM (emerging markets) EEM remains the lead hound and is also my new spiff hound since GSP (commodities) faltered and lost pack status last week. With this the spiff moved to EEM.
During the swoon Old_Skeet did a little buying plus I reconfigured my income sleeve this past week.
During the swoon I added to one of my stock funds (FDSAX). This past week I sold off three of my income funds FMTNX, LALDX and THIFX. I reposition a good bit of the money back into funds held within the income sleeve BAICX and CTFAX plus some went to PMAIX (global hybrid sleeve) along with pulling some aside for a possible third spiff. In addition, in my spiff sleeve there was a leadership change as GSP (commodities) faltered, last week, and was removed with the new spiff hound becoming EEM (emerging markets).
Thanks for stopping by and reading.
Old_Skeet
Good weekly read:
dashofinsight.com/http://
Why Has the Stock Market Risen So Much Since the US Presidential Election?
Olivier Blanchard (PIIE), Christopher G. Collins (Federal Reserve Board of Governors), Mohammad R. Jahan-Parvar (Federal Reserve Board of Governors), Thomas Pellet (PIIE) and Beth Anne Wilson (Federal Reserve Board of Governors)
Olivier Blanchard and coauthors conclude that increases in actual and expected stock dividends since November 2016 explain a little more than one half of the 25 percent run-up in the S&P 500 since then. The effects of the perceived probability that a corporate tax cut bill would pass Congress account for another 2 to 6 percentage points of the increase. The rest can be attributed to a decrease of less than 100 basis points in the equity premium, a decrease that leaves it roughly equal to where it was in the mid-2000s.
https://piie.com/system/files/documents/pb18-4.pdf
This week Old_Skeet's market barometer closed the week (and month end being the last Friday of the month) with a reading of 147 putting the S&P 500 Index in the lower range of fair value on the barometer's scale.
Within Old_Skeet's 500 Compass the pack consist of XLI (industrials), XLF (financials) and XLY (discretionary) which has remained the lead and spiff hound since the beginning of the year. However, XLF has found it's legs and is moving up strongly and might soon become the lead hound. As long as XLY can maintain pack status it will remain the spiff hound.
Within Old_Skeet's Global Compass the pack consist of EEM (emerging markets), VTI (domestic stocks) and GSP (commodities) which has found it's legs and has moved from back in the hunt to not only regaining pack status but has become the lead hound. EEM remains the spiff hound since it still holds pack status.
Thanks for stopping by and reading.
I wish all ... "Good Investing."
Old_Skeet
I've likely missed something from one your earlier posts; but with the SPDR etf's you post regarding leaders, I don't find either the technology or health sectors being mentioned. Technology has remained the best performer year over year.
What am I missing regarding your methodology? Do you compare and monitor all 10 sectors?
The below link is all 10 SPDR sectors for YTD.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?XLY,XLP,XLE,XLF,XLV,XLI,XLB,XLRE,XLK,XLU&p=4&O=011000
Thank you for your inquiry.
The lead hounds (pack) in the 500 Compass comes form the best performing rolling 90 day etf sector returns for the Index.
You should find answers to your question(s) by clicking on the below links. In these links I explain my compasses.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/96523/#Comment_96523
and, here ...
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/96725/#Comment_96725
Naturally, to explain the workings of the compasses with each posting would be very redundant.
If you wish to follow the hounds in the 500 Compass you can do so through this link. Just click on the 90 day performance. I have them set up in a special portfolio that I use to follow them. But, the link below will work for the 500 Compass.
http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
Thanks again for you inquiry. I indeed hope you find your answers in the provided links.
Cordially,
Old_Skeet
Added a wee bit to both TSLA and ROKU. Still riding a couple of junior silver miners for giggles but otherwise, staying with my dividend payers.
It's a very weird market out there boys and girls. Be careful.
and so it goes,
peace,
rono
Okay..........so what are you doing with this data?
Are you trading these etf's?
Does this data affect your decisions about any of your holdings?
I recall your holdings are diverse funds and not likely directly affected by sector movements.
An exception I find for funds that are diverse in the holdings is whether they be growth or value oriented.
"The music is all around us, all we have to do...is listen"
Regards,
Catch