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Homebuilder Optimism Up In Smoke

TedTed
in Fund Discussions
FYI: If there’s an economic indicator that gets released these days, taking the under usually ends up being the prudent bet. Today’s release of homebuilder sentiment for the month of July from the NAHB on Tuesday was the latest example. While economists were expecting the headline reading to come in at a level of 67, the actual reading was 64- the weakest reading since November. After a four-month surge post-election, the last four months have seen homebuilder sentiment decline in three of the last four months. Making matters worse, Tuesday’s reading was the weakest relative to expectations since May 2015.
Regards,
Ted

https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/homebuilder-optimism-up-in-smoke/

Comments

  • BobCBobC
    I can't vouch for other areas of the country, but here in Central Ohio the building boom is going full speed. Builders cannot put up new single-family, apartment, and condo homes fast enough. Even the massive apartment complexes are mostly leased before they open. We are having bidding wars over existing homes on the market, and even in my own neighborhood, home sale prices have pushed up values some 20-30% in the last year alone.
  • MarkMark
    Same conditions here in the Minneapolis - St. Paul, MN area.
  • MikeMMikeM
    @BobC, I can attest to what you see in Columbus. I visit my son and his family north of Columbus a few times a year. In fact I was just there a couple weeks ago watching him in a play at an outdoor setting in a park (Actors' Theater of Columbus I think it's called). Acting is his hobby. Where he lives in Westerville there are homes and condos going up all over the place. A ride through the city shows lots of building construction. It's really a great mid-size city. The only downfall is the incessant "Go Buckeye" theme:).
  • BobCBobC
    Know what you mean about incessant Buckeyes enthusiasm. All other sports take a backseat to OSU football. That could change, however, if the Blue Jackets make a run in next year's Stanley Cup playoffs. People here are very knowledgeable hockey fans. They just might have a team to really love. It's hard to believe Columbus is one of the country's largest cities, somewhere in the top 20 now.
  • MikeMMikeM
    My kids took me to a Blue Jackets game last fall. To be honest, I didn't know they had a NHL team at the time, but it was a lot of fun. Great arena.
  • davidrmorandavidrmoran
    BobC said:

    here in Central Ohio the building boom is going full speed. Builders cannot put up new single-family, apartment, and condo homes fast enough. Even the massive apartment complexes are mostly leased before they open. We are having bidding wars over existing homes on the market, and even in my own neighborhood, home sale prices have pushed up values some 20-30% in the last year alone.

    Do you sense that this is (somewhat) the case in Springfield and Dayton too?

  • BobCBobC
    davidrmoran said:

    BobC said:

    here in Central Ohio the building boom is going full speed. Builders cannot put up new single-family, apartment, and condo homes fast enough. Even the massive apartment complexes are mostly leased before they open. We are having bidding wars over existing homes on the market, and even in my own neighborhood, home sale prices have pushed up values some 20-30% in the last year alone.

    Do you sense that this is (somewhat) the case in Springfield and Dayton too?

    I am less enthusiastic about those two smaller cities. Springfield, especially, is still suffering economically from several major industrial employers leaving. The folks I know that live there all commute outside the area for work, either going east to Columbus or west and south to Dayton and Cincy. Dayton is looking a bit better, but the city and area relied on NCR, GM and other auto industry so heavily that it was crushed during the recession. It does seem to be coming back, but nothing close to the boom that is going on in Columbus. The suburban Dayton area has really grown, while the city itself continues to lose population, down almost 50% from its 1970's high.
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