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Grocery Stocks Plunge as Amazon Buys Whole Foods

edited June 2017 in Off-Topic
Can't think of an industry more in need of rennovation, having waited up to a half-hour in line to pay for a dozen or so items at some large supermarkets.

Media speculation appears focused on home delivery. But there are many technological changes that would speed up and simplify the in store shopping/check out experience. I believe Amazon will turn this industry upside down within 5 years. Downside is even more jobs will be lost to automation. Another potential problem: anti-monopoly laws (of which I know little). This is likely to raise regulators' eyebrows.

Bloomberg TV is reporting Kroger stock (http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/kr) off 31% for the week on a whole host of problems.

Amazon/Whole Foods Article: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-whole-foods-m-a-amazon-idUSKBN1971QJ

Grocery Stocks Fall: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/16/wal-mart-drops-4-percent-kroger-dives-12-percent-in-premarket-on-amazon-whole-foods-deal.html

More "seasoned" board members will recall this Kroger jingle from the 80s.

Comments

  • edited June 2017
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  • Not sure where you are seeing lack of competition in the grocery space? - Margins in the grocery business have historically been mediocre/low -- which suggests competition is adequate.

    When I lived in Socal, there was plenty of competition. Three 'mainline' chains (Von's Ralphs, Albertsons) competed with Trader Joes and numerous 'ethnic' standalone stores. On my recent visit there, Sprouts had begun to enter the market.

    Here in N.Texas we have again, 'mainline' chains Albertsons, Kroger, & Tom Thumb, along with (again) any number of 'ethnic' standalones, Wal-Mart, Sprouts, Aldi's and Target.

    Across the country, there is also an expanding Korean chain of stores "H-Mart" in several large markets (Dallas, SoCal, East Coast). And "Lidl" is on the way to the USA. Seem to recall there is another regional chain based in ID (?) expanding outwards.

    If competition is what you want, AMZN's entry will DESTROY/reduce competition -- as its sells at losses to drive away the competition. Grocers, like any real business exist based on the profit motive. If AMZN can operate at losses, thanks to Wall Street largesse, it will drive the competition out.

  • edited June 2017
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  • As for investing goes, we invest my hard earned dollars with our local farmer market instead paying the high price for the essentially same items at Whole Foods. They don't call "Whole Foods..whole paycheck" for nothing. As such Whole Foods have been steadily losing customers. They have even discussed opening a second chain of lower cost stores, and that would canalized (or least reduce) the business of Whole Foods itself.

    Here on the Pacific Northwest, we have many farmer market throughout the cites. Many of the produces use the "non-spray" farming practices. Many which are old remedies used prior to the industrial age with heavy herbicide usage and GMO.
  • Sven: you bring up a very good point. Buy local at farmers market.
    Derf
  • I hope the Trump administration turns down the deal. With Bezo's owing the Washington Post and brutally attacking Trump every day why should he approve this deal.
  • All I need is Aldi's, Trader Joe's and Costco.
  • @Mitchelg That's right because the legal viability of a proposed acquisition should be based on whether it's good for the president's image as opposed to whether or not it benefits or hurts consumers, employees, the environment, etc.
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  • Can you substantiate what policies are in place by this administration, period? That aside, there's a fair amount of discretion in what actions, including antitrust actions, the government chooses to pursue.

    The actions themselves need to have some basis in reality (or some reality), but a decision to take action can be based on personal feelings.
  • edited June 2017
    Mitch, I am with YOU!

    As for impact on the economy, keeping Amazon OUT of groceries is a strategy for stopping job destruction in the grocery industry. I hope DOT kills the deal based on job destruction. And while we are at it, hope POTUS breaks up AMZN like T.R. went after the trusts. "Trustbuster Trump".

    Despite my hopes, I opened a position (my first) in AMZN on Friday's news. My hopes seldom materialize -- so I hedge them by investing AGAINST my hopes. -- If my hopes are dashed again, I at least may have the consolation of some capital gains.
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  • I wrote that a president can decide to pursue or not pursue an antitrust case based on personal feelings. Documentation? How about Bush dropping Clinton's antitrust suit against Microsoft?

    Is Bush a Microsoft Kind of Guy? (Wired)
    Bush praised the company at length during a news conference, calling it an “an engine of change, an engine of growth” and declaring himself “unsympathetic to lawsuits basically.” ...

    “It would be quite extraordinary for a president to intervene in a case that is as far along as this one,” said Herb Hovenkamp, professor of law at Iowa University.
    There you have Bush's personal feelings. Then he comes in as president and the antitrust suit vanishes.

    We got our local Whole Foods a few years ago, complete with rooftop garden to supply the store with veggies. But in about half a year we'll get an even closer 365 by Whole Foods, unless Amazon wants to kill it and buy out the lease. I don't get Whole Food's business model (especially as competitors like Sprouts come in), and I'm not sure that Amazon does, either.
  • edited June 2017
    Maurice said:

    Has anyone ever had a package delivered by a drone? Do you tip the drone?

    No. But I'd guess they work about the same as the seagulls that fly in here. They come in low and slow, drop their "load" on the front lawn or deck, or sometimes the windows, than fly back out towards the lake.

    No - we never tip them.
  • edited June 2017
    I wonder if this will go the way of big banks ... savings through size and efficency, etc. Then as Wells Faro (WFC) did through it's actions and practices (We Fleece Customers). I truly hope this is not allowed to go through. And, if I had to wait 30 minutes in a check out line as one poster stated ... the store would be restocking the goods for I would have walked long before it got to the 30 minute mark.
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  • I buy more and more items online instead of from my local Safeway. Things like paper products, soaps and detergents, and dry goods I find for much less than I would find up the street. Some things I know are less up at Safeway. But I will never let somebody else pick out produce, dairy, meat, or other like products for me. Unless things change radically with Whole Foods and Amazon, I probably will find no reason to go there at all.
  • @bartab: Your comment is interesting re "paper products, soaps and detergents, and dry goods". Are there on-line suppliers that you use consistently for these products? It's hard to see how an on-line supplier can absorb the shipping costs for heavy and bulky items such as these and still beat a local market, especially if you wait for sales. We generally use Costco for this type of stuff, and local stores, including Safeway, for much of the rest.

    Agree with your comments about "produce, dairy, meat, or other like products", and also your observation re Whole Foods and Amazon.

  • edited June 2017
    Im not near a Walmart, and am not a Walmart shopper normally, but their online ordering is great. I like plain old Nestea Iced Tea in the jar. Most places don't have it anymore but when i find it it is around $4.50 to $5.00. Walmart is around $2.50. It's grilling season, and I ordered the big jars of A1 and H57. About half of what it would be at the stores. Spices as well. I use the smoker a lot in the summer and go through a ton of salt and pepper. (the Texas way). I grind my own. Again, about half the price. I have some baby backs on right now, as well as a few big ol beef ribs. The meat I did not buy online. Happy Fathers Day! And Joe, Costco is great for many items. I'm a transplant patient and I get a ton of meds online. The major anti rejection drugs though come from a pharmacy. But I get those shipped as well so I don't have to go out and be around a lot of people who might be sick waiting in line for their prescriptions.
  • @bartab: Thanks for the info- we don't normally use Walmart either, but I'll keep that info in the back of my mind. Speaking of meat, I don't think that we've ever had a bad piece from Costco.

    I could possibly see ordering produce, dairy, meat for delivery if for some reason we were unable to shop personally, but otherwise that's not going to happen. But it's probably a lifesaver for anyone who, perhaps for health reasons, can't get out themselves.
  • edited June 2017
    @Maurice linked an interesting (Bloomberg) glimpse of what Amazon might do at Whole Foods. Thanks.

    But Bezos is usually 3 steps ahead of what is considered "state of the art" at any given time. We've owned several Kindle readers since they first appeared more than a decade ago (revolutionary at the time) and continue to subscribe to the wonderful content options available to Kindle owners. We've got a couple "echo"s named "Echo" and "Alexa" and love them both. Damned smart. Need a word spelled? Ask Echo. Want a number multiplied or divided? Ask Alexa. How many miles is it from home to LA or London? No problem. Just ask and the answer is returned in seconds. We especially love their "Audible" content and how well the vast and growing library of audible books and periodicals integrates with Echo. Really amazing convenience not dreamed of 10 years ago.

    Love him or hate him ... Bezos pushes the limits of technological innovation and often succeeds.

    Now - Lets go grocery shopping. Imagine just pushing a cart full of groceries you spent the last hour accumulating (roaming the store) past a single "auto-scanner" and having everything in your cart ring-up instantly - within seconds, and an itemized paper printout given you immediately. No scanning of items. No inexperienced clerk calling for "help" because he/she doesn't know a "snow pea" from a "sugar snap." Than imagine having your cart automatically unloaded and packed in seconds into bags or boxes for you to transport (with the refrigerated/frozen foods automatically segregated from the others). Than imagine your groceries following you out the door and being delivered at your side by (GPS-connected) robot as you walk to your car. Or, better yet, imagine the entire order being delivered to your home - timed to coincide with your arrival there. Don't worry Mo - Bezos likes cash too and will develop a way for you to pay with cash if you so desire.:)
  • There was a time when if someone had suggested eBay would work, he would have been laughed out the building. Who knew complete strangers would trust each other to make transactions on the web. I still don't know how people buy cars on eBay.

    So now, we are talking grocery shopping over the internet. Remember during the dot com boom we had a few upstarts trying to sell groceries online. Didn't work out so well. Now we are back. Some ideas refuse to die (Pictet Global Water fund is history, but now we do have "water" funds too).

    We are in the generation that has seen lot of technology advances and embrace them. However, I do not want to look at my car window on highway and see no-one behind the steering wheel of the car to my left. Similarly, I want to see, touch, feel, smell what I'm buying, especially the perishable items. I want to be able to go and return things and replace "immediately", etc. etc. etc.

    I think I will stay away from some "technologies". On the other hand I wonder why they don't invent robots to clean restrooms, latrines all over the world. Maybe there is no money in it...
  • Recently, my wife and I visited a Wal-Mart to pick up a specific item for the house. During our walk through, we decided to check out the grocery/supermarket section of the store. We were shocked at the low prices compared to our local grocery store/supermarket. We decided to do a little extra food shopping while visiting the store. I try to stay away from Wal-Mart in general due to the circus atmosphere, but we may go back to pick up a few grocery items because of the low prices. I would find it hard to believe that Bezos will be able to compete with these prices at a Whole Foods, so I'm not seeing how Whole Foods will hurt Wal-Mart's grocery business. Clearly, the clientele is much different, too.
  • @MFO Members: Whole Foods is the most overpriced retail grocery business !
    Regards,
    Ted
  • @Ted: Yep, for sure.
  • Maybe true Ted but it's not about price. It's all about status. Lucky for me I'm beneath that. I went in one once and left without buying a thing.
  • @Mark- You too, h'mm?
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