I am opening this thread pursuant to request as it has been some time since the last one was opened; and, also, because of the recent stock market sell off today where most of the major indexes were down by about 2.5%.
I believe, one has to ask oneself if this is the start of something bigger to come? I thinking, the coming week will provide some clues if this is just market saber rattling from big money and some traders moving the market downward in view of the FMOC setting the stage for another rate hike perhaps sometime before year end.
I'm thinking (pondering) that this is the beginning of something bigger to come. Either stock market prices need to come down or corporate earnings need to increase to justify, in my mind, current stock market prices.
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Additional Comment (9/13) ... In checking the WSJ, I am finding that year-over-year the S&P 500 Index is selling at about 20% above where it was a year ago. As of Friday 9/9/16 the WSJ reported the TTM P/E Ratio for the Index at 24.86 and a year prior to that at 20.77. With this, it seems that the Index based upon it's price to earnings ratio is selling at about 20% more today than it was a year ago. I am thinking, this limits the upside and perhaps there is more risk to the downside than the upside. Either earnings will have to increase to support current valuations or investors will have to keep paying more and more for stocks if we are to have upside movement. Perhaps, there is more nearterm downside movement to come.
Comments
HYG down .97% for today
HYD down .12% for today
Since we are coming up on an election I thing the FED will be reticent to raise.
I did sneak into FMIMX, GGSOX and PGIRX. $100 minimum at Schwab is so nice
My thesis on ARTYX seems to be playing out. I have no respect for Thornburg and so also its Alumni. I didn't purchase it surmising Artisan was going to roll over ARTZX into it. Look at ARTZX performance vs ARTYX. There is no differentiation.
10% correction and I'll initiate position in VGHCX and PRHSX.
Yesterdays sell off is also helping me re-examine by budding romance with BMO funds. Low Volatility? Really? Let's wait and see...
I do love this thread a lot. Me? I've been mostly selling......sold CFVLX, FFBFX, LBSAX, LCPAX, MAPIX, WAVEX, YAFFX.....again, over a period of time. Trying to get down to a small portfolio. What I have bought is VWINX. That about it.....might do some buying if the market keeps falling.
God bless
the Pudd
Early this week I sold an energy stock I bought in early 2015, SLB. I don't have faith anymore that energy is going to do well any time soon. At least not as well as some other sectors. I watched it drop -20+% after buying but waited for it to come back and sold at about the price where I bought. I used half the proceeds to buy RYF, a financial ETF, another play on rising interest rates. I have a limit order to buy more RYF if the market continues to drop.
All this is with what I call my play money. Most of my investments are in the Schwab Intelligent Portfolio (robo) which has done quite well this year, and my self managed portfolio of 11 mutual funds.
Don't forget SFGIX soft closes this month, so you might not want to wait TOO long to get in.
Exposure to real assets/international bonds within the Core has contributed to a better than average year. Can cut either way. One never knows.
The remaining 20% is used to adjust cash level and is currently split about evenly between equity funds (PRWCX and PRNEX) and cash. Earlier in year, the equity portion was higher and the cash portion lower.
I remain cautiously nervous and attempted to curtail some risk last week by moving some EM debt to a less risky international bond fund. (Rearranging the deck chairs ...
NON question now..........just read your mix in "what are buying, selling thread".
You noted: "Am comfortable with my current allocation of 25% in cash and short-term bonds.
Are you stating 25% of your portfolio is cash/short term bonds and the remainder in equity holdings; or that all of your portfolio consists of 25% cash and 75% in short term bonds?
Thank you.
Catch
I am a little confused because in another post under "How Many Funds Do You Own?" You list your allocation as being 5% cash, 20% bonds, 20% alts, 40% domestic stocks, and 20% international stocks. When I add this up I get 105%. Does this mean that you are 105% long and 5% short netting 100%? Or, you could be leveraged perhaps through margin to get to 105%.
Sometimes, I read a post ... and, I wonder ... What is the true meaning?
Because in this post you state 25% in cash and short term bonds ... leaving the other 75% not detailed. But, what is believed to be 75% really turns out to be 80% according what is stated in to the other referenced post where the full allocation is detailed.
Again, this makes me (possible some others) left to wonder? Just how is BobC really positioned?
Some clarity, please.
I have been making monthly contributions to my ira as usual. Also bought some CVS.
-Some MINT & VTIP -- as cash substitutes, in Roth, Trad-IRA & taxable accts.
- A 'starter' position in KR, which strikes me as best-in-breed in the grocery space. In taxable.
-Opened a small position in PCM last week, after the selloff. In IRA.
-Last week: Opened 'starter positions' in PFO and WFC-L. Re WFC-L, its gotten walloped due to the WFC news-flow. I am hoping more bad news will drive the price lower, as the pfd's divd is about as secure as they get, and is QDI. If that happens, I will 'load up the boat'.
-Last week, opened positions in converts: ANTX (Anthem) and AGN-A (Allergan). The common shares of both are well off their highs, and that is reflected in the prices of the converts. I'm agreeable to being 'paid to wait',
-Flipping newly-issued pfds in IRA. Lately, newly-issued pfds have been bid up to silly premiums. Buying at/near offering (near/at par). Once the disty is paid, the bid on them falls off. I've made and am currently making some bets here. This has worked like a charm for me this year. If the pfd doesn't get bid up, they still pay a generous yield, which (so far at least) has been adequate to attract sufficient bids, to permit exiting the trade 'flat'. (I'd prefer to not provide specific tickers here, as liquidity on some of these can be limited. Anyone interested can find prospects at quantumonline. Do your own dd.)
Recently sold:
-SBUX, XOM. Both were recently opened 'starter positions'. -- The trade started to move against me, so I decided my 'first loss was my best loss' and closed them out.
Next week: plan to open position in FRIFX in IRA & Roth. I like its low-cap (REIT) &pfd emphasis. On a cash-yield basis, both seem more reasonably priced than big-cap REITs -- which seem to be bid up in price due to institutional money flows. I also like it is UNDER-invested in mall REITS, whose future, IMO, will be much less glorious then their past.
Considering buying:
-PBF: I like the chart, competitors' charts, the yield, & recent insider-buys. (This would be a 'trade' not an investment.)
-PSX: I'd like to 'follow Buffett' in here, but I want it a bit cheaper than Friday's close.
-SFGIX: I'd like to get my toe in the door before they do their soft-close.
-May open position in a TBD floater/sr.loan vehicle.
-INFY: stock seems to be at the bottom of its trading channel. (This would be a trade, not an investment.)
I've a long, LONG list of 'considering buying' except they are trading above my buy points. I'd need a pricing reset to open them. We'll get one. Its just a matter of 'when'.
Considering selling:
-In 401k: a 10% allocation to PTTRX. Started this year at 60%. Been periodically reducing on 'strength'. May chop this to 5% (or 0%) as the mood suits me, and move it to my stable-value fund. Gundlach's comment a couple months back has 'stuck' with me -- the one about "when you are 'right' about an investment and it still doesn't make any money (why place capital at risk)"...
On a second note...I am assuming (above) that different share classes are part of the same fund. In other words, SIGIX $1.6 B AUM is the same $1.6 B AUM that are quoted for SFGIX.
I would hope that once a small investor (SFGIX in this case) reaches an account balance that equals SIGIX higher share class minimum of $25K (through subsequent purchases of SFGIX) that the investor could be converted to the more efficient share class.
I put a lot of the proceeds into ZEOIX which looks to be doing well and while not really as safe as cash has little volatility. I assume a fund like this will be a lot more nimble than OSTIX ( which I wouldn't consider for need soon money)
Limit order tomorrow.Cramer just chirped a bunch on APC buy of Gulf of Mex assets from FCX.
AEUA (B) - ANADARKO PETROLEUM
Anadarko Petroleum Corp., 7.50% Tangible Equity Units due 6/7/2018
Mandatory Convertible Securities