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Larry Swedroe: Ignore Gundlach’s Forecasts

TedTed
in Fund Discussions
FYI: When I worked as an investment banker selling, among other things, economic forecasts, I was given the following advice: If you are going to forecast, forecast often, because eventually you’ll get one right—even a blind squirrel occasionally finds acorns.
The financial media anoints as an “expert” any forecaster who happened to get the last forecast right. However, as Jason Zweig, a columnist for The Wall Street Journal, pointed out: “Pigs will fly before you’ll ever see a full list of the expert’s past forecasts, including the bloopers.”
Regards,
Ted
http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-ignore-gundlachs-forecasts?nopaging=1

Comments

  • Sven
    even a blind squirrel occasionally finds acorn
    How true! He needs to focus in managing his funds now that the Total Return fund is lagging his peers including the benchmark.
  • rjb112
    Ted said:

    FYI: Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-ignore-gundlachs-forecasts?nopaging=1

    Can anybody access this article?
    I'm not able to

  • rjb112
    rjb112 said:

    Ted said:

    FYI: Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-ignore-gundlachs-forecasts?nopaging=1

    Can anybody access this article?
    I'm not able to

    image
  • AndyJ
    edited April 2016
    Sven said:

    even a blind squirrel occasionally finds acorn
    How true! He needs to focus in managing his funds now that the Total Return fund is lagging his peers including the benchmark.
    DBLTX and its real peers - intermediate-term (IT) mortgage funds *** (e.g., TGLMX, SGVAX) - are pretty much all in the same boat, lagging IT diversified since February, when mortgages, especially mortgages a few rungs down in credit quality, started being pressured. Dbl's diversified IT bond fund, DBLFX, is doing pretty well in the category.

    I've commented before, and it may bear repeating because of the recent mortgage weakness, that JG's old total-return mortgage fund, TGLMX, is very competitive with DBLTX. If I were looking for a TR mortgage fund, I'd be tempted to choose the former over the latter.

    *** Lipper classifies DBLTX more accurately as a "U.S. Mortgage" fund, versus M*'s categorization with broad IT bond funds. I'm guessing the M* category is why, Slick, you concluded that it's lagging its peers in the short term.
  • Tony
    Here it is, with a bunch of nearby ads:
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/swedroe-ignore-gundlach-forecasts-094700059.html
  • TedTed
    @MFO Members: It appears that since I linked the Swedroe article on the 22nd, ETF.Com has gone to subscription of articles after a couple days for free.
    Regards,
    Ted
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