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MFO 3Q Fund Metrics & Ratings - Tough Going Lately

CharlesCharles
edited October 2014 in Fund Discussions
Chip and I have just updated all MFO Search Tools to reflect performance through September 2014.

These include latest Great Owls, Three Alarm Funds, Dashboard of Profiled Funds, Risk Profiles, and Multi-Search.

Will post some impressions shortly, but initial reaction...it's been a tough few quarters for a lot of notable funds!

Comments

  • Tampabay
    Be interesting...waiting for GOOD? 4th Quarter...
  • CharlesCharles
    edited October 2014
    So, some links below to current ratings on long term top-tier performers. All notable. All struggling this past year...or more.

    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/fund-ratings/?symbol=TCWAX+OAKIX+UMBWX+TIGAX+SHSAX+PRHSX+VCHSX+MHNAX+UNHIX+HABDX+PTTRX+AMANX+YAFFX+BBTEX+FEVAX+FMIHX+GABEX+MPGFX+MVPFX+PIXAX+&submit=Submit

    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/fund-ratings/?symbol=CVGRX+FTQGX+MFCFX+SEQUX+PRGFX+WTEAX+AMRMX+ARDEX+AUXFX+FAIRX+BAEIX+FMIEX+IEF+PMHIX+VBLTX+ADAIX+BCMSX+ACRNX+MERDX+NBGNX+&submit=Submit

    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/fund-ratings/?symbol=RYSEX+ARTQX+DEFIX+FPPTX+PHO+FOBAX+MACSX+PVFAX+RYSEX+PRSVX+WEMMX+VVPSX+CCASX+WAAEX+WSCVX+WSTCX+UNSCX+WGRNX&submit=Submit

    Broad category set.

    This board especially should recognize a lot of familiar names:

    Oakmark International I (OAKIX)
    Waddell & Reed High-Income A (UNHIX)
    PIMCO Total Return Instl (PTTRX)
    AMG Yacktman Focused Service (YAFFX)
    BbH Core Select N (BBTEX)
    FMI Large Cap (FMIHX)
    Mairs & Power Growth Inv (MPGFX)
    PIMCO Fundamental IndexPLUS AR A (PIXAX)
    The Cook & Bynum Fund (COBYX)
    Sequoia (SEQUX)
    T. Rowe Price Growth Stock (PRGFX)
    American Funds American Mutual A (AMRMX)
    ASTON/River Road Dividend All Cap Val N (ARDEX)
    Auxier Focus Inv (AUXFX)
    Fairholme (FAIRX)
    iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond (IEF)
    AQR Diversified Arbitrage I (ADAIX)
    Meridian Growth Legacy (MERDX)
    Neuberger Berman Genesis Inv (NBGNX)
    Royce Premier Invmt (RYPRX)
    Artisan Mid Cap Value Investor (ARTQX)
    Delafield Fund (DEFIX)
    FpA Capital (FPPTX)
    Tributary Balanced Instl (FOBAX)
    Matthews Asian Growth & Inc Investor (MACSX)
    Royce Special Equity Invmt (RYSEX)
    T. Rowe Price Small-Cap Value (PRSVX)
    TETON Westwood Mighty Mites AAA (WEMMX)
    Vulcan Value Partners Small Cap (VVPSX)
    Wasatch Small Cap Growth (WAAEX)
    Walthausen Small Cap Value (WSCVX)
    Ivy Science & Technology C (WSTCX)
    Wintergreen Investor (WGRNX)

    SEQUX, arguably greatest mutual fund ever...no longer a Great Owl.

    FAIRX, what a difference a decade makes...although, still top quintile across last two full cycles (through September anyway).

    Perhaps somehow related to bond yield? IEF or TLH?

    Valuations? Defensive funds not buying into current bull market?

    Or, just the normal ebb and flow of investing styles across cycles?
  • CharlesCharles
    Another example below...Artisan, one of strongest fund houses available today.

    Consistently, this family has high percentage of GO funds.

    As of last quarter, 4 of their 13 funds are GOs. Pretty good.

    But more recent performance of most of their funds is average at best with 7 being in lower quintiles:

    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/fund-ratings/?symbol=ARTGX+ARTIX+ARTKX+APHEX+ARTHX+ARTRX+ARTJX+ARTSX+ARTWX+ARTMX+ARTQX+ARTVX+ARTLX&submit=Submit
  • Derf
    Charles a question . No small caps on the 3 alarm table?
    Derf
  • Derf
    Charles a question . No small caps on the 3 alarm table?
    Derf
  • 00BY
    edited October 2014
    Is it a bearish signal?

    VFINX up 8% ytd and up over 21% over the past 1 year
  • davidrmorandavidrmoran
    This gets less and less useful by the quarter. Look at all the index ETFs with such low low UI. I better get me one of them and forget about SEQUX.

    I suggest revisiting concepts and criteria and the math/sorting/display algorithms.
  • CharlesCharles
    @Derf.

    I count 22 small caps on Three Alarm list:

    Symons Small Cap Inst (SSMIX)
    Royce Micro-Cap Invmt (RYOTX)
    Artisan Small Cap Value Investor (ARTVX)
    ASTON/River Road Small Cap Value N (ARSVX)
    Paradigm Micro-Cap (PVIVX)
    MassMutual Select Small Company Value A (MMYAX)
    Lord Abbett Small Cap Value A (LRSCX)
    Thrivent Partner Small Cap Value A (AALVX)
    ClearBridge Small Cap Value A (SBVAX)
    Rydex Russell 2000 A (RYRRX)
    Royce Special Equity Invmt (RYSEX)
    ASTON/River Road Select Value N (ARSMX)
    JHancock Small Company A (JCSAX)
    Stonebridge Small-Cap Growth (SBSGX)
    Alger Small Cap Growth B (ALSCX)
    JHancock Small Cap Equity A (SPVAX)
    ASTON/TAMRO Small Cap N (ATASX)
    Virtus Quality Small-Cap A (PQSAX)
    Jacob Micro Cap Growth Institutional (JMIGX)
    Praxis Small Cap A (MMSCX)

    Looks like bottom part of list was cut-off initially, but all there now.

    Thanks for catching.

    If you see anything else amiss, please post and will work to correct soonest.

    c
  • CharlesCharles
    edited October 2014
    @00BY.

    Hmmm, bear signal?

    Market is tough to handle lately, certainly.

    A bit psycho.

    At close today, SPY off 4% from last high, so still long way from bear territory.

    Believe we'd need to come down another 16% to call an end to this bull market.

    But we are only 2% above 200 day average, which probably represents next support level.

    I think earnings will continue to show strength, but if today is any sign, not sure that will help.

    David was right...October is tough for markets.

    Not sure why.

    But this October seems no different.

    c
  • CharlesCharles
    edited October 2014
    @davidrmoran.

    If you are lucky enough to own SEQUX, congrats.

    That one is a lifer, regardless of its shorter term score in any backward looking rating system.

    I think the Ulcer Index is reflecting current volatility in markets, bonds as well as equities.

    But it's not all bad. Some long-term stalwarts seem to be able to handle the current environment quite well.

    Here's list for conservative-moderate investors:

    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/fund-ratings/?symbol=FASIX+VWINX+GABCX+MERFX+GLRBX+JABLX+VWELX+VBINX+TGLMX+JAFLX+DODIX&submit=Submit

    Here's list for moderate-aggressive investors:

    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/fund-ratings/?symbol=FPACX+VGSTX+MBAIX+PRWCX+FPURX+AADBX+FBALX+NOIEX+TRSGX+MDISX+VGHCX+TWEIX&submit=Submit

    Finally, for aggressive investors:

    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/fund-ratings/?symbol=FEAFX+TWEBX+LEXCX+ELFNX+SMGIX+TBGVX+VPMCX+DPDEX+OAKMX&submit=Submit

    c
  • davidrmorandavidrmoran
    >> Ulcer Index is reflecting current volatility

    oh, I know. That's the problem. Plus manager continuity.

    But we have had this conversation.

    Based on this work, someone might decide to move everything from, oh, JABAX / JABLX to PRWCX.
  • CharlesCharles
    edited October 2014
    Hey, a closer look at SEQUX...

    image

    Its UI is actually quite low this past year, even three years. Unfortunately, the SP500 UI is even lower. Compounding this issue is excess return. Compared to SP500, SEQUX has delivered only half the return.

    During bull runs, equity volatility typically drops, and those funds that are more defensive, like SEQUX or many all-asset funds, drag, especially this past year as bond and commodity volatility is up.

    But that does not mean they are "wrong," at least with regard to the way they chose to handle risk, but their ratings will invariably suffer. (Look at COBYX, for example, and the whole list above.)

    Bottomline: If the market is always up, three years may not be very telling from a risk adjusted perspective.

    That is something I think we are in-g on.

    Thanks David. Hope all is well.
  • Derf
    Charles, thanks for the come back on small cap funds. Double post was due to attack on MFO. I had to delete that post as it was on leave a comment, before I could post this.
    Thanks for all your hard work.
    Derf
  • 00BY
    @Charles
    Just saying that it is difficult for managed funds to compete with index funds in a low volatility bull market. I shouldn't have used the b word (too much of a lightning rod), but just signs of trouble or a difficult market. Who knows FWIW
  • CharlesCharles
    Just saying that it is difficult for managed funds to compete with index funds in a low volatility bull market.
    That's good! Well said.
  • CharlesCharles
    And, if October is any indication, the days of low volatility for stocks anyway, maybe done for a while.
  • AKAFlack
    Charles,

    “But we are only 2% above 200 day average, which
    probably represents next resistance level.”

    When the price is ABOVE the moving average and FALLING,
    the moving average represents a SUPPORT level – a floor.

    When the price is BELOW the moving average, the moving average represents a RESISTANCE level – a ceiling.

    AKAFlack
  • CharlesCharles
    Ha!

    Thanks brother!

    Have corrected and will not make mistake again.

    And, let's hope we some SUPPORT.
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