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Open Thread: What Are You Buying/Selling/Pondering
Not really doing anything and don't really want to add further. Did move a little money to Reckitt Benckiser (RBGLY) (which is a favorite consumer staples company) this morning and Marketfield (MFLDX) late last week, but kind of out of ideas and don't really want to commit more to anything I already own.
Not much in this very sideways market which can go either way but have bought into some 2X shorts in technology and small caps in play money portfolio as a hedge. Pondering ultrashort Gold.
The first quarter rebalancing over the last few weeks has changed the fixed income allocation in core portfolio a bit. Reduced floating rate, GNMA and High Yield and increased EM bonds.
Another earnings short-squeeze prospect is recycled ferrous metal products manufacturer and export player Schnitzer Steel Industries (SCHN_), which is set to release numbers on Thursday before the market open. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect Schnitzer Steel Industries to report revenue of $665.52 million on earnings of 10 cents per share.
The current short interest as a percentage of the float for Schnitzer Steel Industries is very high at 12.6%. That means that out of the 25.20 million shares in the tradable float, 3.19 million shares are sold short by the bears. This is a large short interest on a stock with a very low tradable float. Any bullish earnings news could easily send shares of SCHN ripping higher post-earnings as the bears rush to cover some of their bets.
From a technical perspective, SCHN is currently trending above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bullish. This stock recently formed a double bottom chart pattern at $24.58 to $24.71 a share. Following that bottom, shares of SCHN have started to uptrend and move back above both of its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. That move has now pushed shares of SCHN within range of triggering a near-term breakout trade post-earnings.
If you're bullish on SCHN, then I would wait until after its report and look for long-biased trades if this stock manages to break out above some near-term overhead resistance levels at $29.56 to $29.97 a share with high volume. Look for volume on that move that hits near or above its three-month average action of 298,570 shares. If that breakout hits, then SCHN will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major overhead resistance levels at its 52-week high of $33.32 a share. Any high-volume move above that level will then give SCHN a chance to tag $40 a share.
I would simply avoid SCHN or look for short-biased trades if after earnings it fails to trigger that breakout and then drops back below its 200-day at $27.34 a share to its 50-day at $26.63 a share with high volume. If we get that move, then SCHN will set up to re-test or possibly take out its next major support levels at $24.50 to its 52-week low of $23.07 a share, or even $21.75 a share.
It retreated 4% today.
Call is Thursday:
April 3, 2014 – 11:30 a.m. Eastern
PORTLAND, Ore.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Mar. 20, 2014-- Schnitzer Steel Industries, Inc. (Nasdaq: SCHN) will report its second quarter fiscal 2014 financial results on Thursday, April 3, 2014 and will webcast a conference call to discuss the performance at 11:30 a.m. Eastern on the same day.
The webcast of the call and the accompanying slide presentation may be accessed on Schnitzer’s website under the Investor section Event Calendar at www.schnitzersteel.com/events. The call will be hosted by Tamara L. Lundgren, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Richard D. Peach, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
And, next week Alcoa 4/8. Week after Bank of America 4/16 and GE 4/17.
Schnitzer reported pretty strong earnings this morning, although granted expectations were low. Construction up in west. Infrastructure demand in South Korea, other EMs, helped offset some China weakness. They expect more folks to be turning in old cars and appliances, as US recovery improves, which is good for the recycling industry. Material prices appear to be increasing. Bad weather impacted some of their retail locations, but discounted seasonality.
Enjoyed a 6% pop early, likely on short squeeze, and ended day up a very respectable 4%.
So far, so good.
Little concerned about expectations for AA next week, but here too, business improving, material price trending higher, and Alcoa is capitalizing on innovation.
Pondering whether to open a position in EM for the long haul (next 30ish years), been eyeing DREGX. Debating whether the portfolio is big enough for that much specialization and whether the value is good enough to justify it.
There is no allocation or fund that will remain the same in 30 years.
Assuming you mean that you have a long time horizon (in which case trying to time value is unnecessary) and assuming current global market composition, 8-10% EM allocation for a moderate portfolio and 3-5% for conservative allocation would be reasonable. X-Ray your portfolio to see how much EM exposure your portfolio already has and supplement it for any remaining percentage.
No recent changes. FWIW - a thought. Amazon has steadily been raising prices over the past couple years. We especially find many of their "Prime" items have been jacked-up in price to help compensate them for that "free" shipping. Two years ago we bought online almost exclusively from Amazon. Now, about a third of our purchases are from EBAY sellers who we often find have lower prices - especially on smaller items. Their website is very slick and we're comfortable using Pay Pal.
Thinking of Peter Lynch's maxim to invest in what you know, might EBAY be worth considering? Their business model is much different from Amazon's and I don't really understand it - or for that matter the other types of challenges the firm faces. Just some pondering here.
No recent changes. FWIW - a thought. Amazon has steadily been raising prices past couple years. We especially find many of their "Prime" items have been jacked-up to help compensate them for that "free" shipping. Two years ago we bought online almost exclusively from Amazon. Now about a third of our purchases are from EBAY sellers, who we often find have lower prices - especially on smaller items. Their website is very slick and we're comfortable using Pay Pal.
Thinking of Peter Lynch's maxim to invest in what you know, might EBAY be worth considering? However, their business model is much different from Amazon's and I don't really understand it - or for that matter the other types of challenges the firm faces. Just some pondering here.
Regards
Ebay to me is kinda interesting as it shifts from the auction model that everyone knows to a sort of "retail toolkit", offering paypal, virtual storefronts in malls (http://techcrunch.com/2013/11/20/ebay-debuts-shoppable-touchscreens-and-digital-storefronts-for-sony-toms-and-rebecca-minkoff-in-san-francisco/), Ebay Now (order something from local retailers in certain markets and its delivered in 1-2 hours) and shopping comparisons (Redlaser), among other things. There is also the continued pressure to spin-off Paypal, although I do think that that isn't going to happen (if anything, Ebay will still hold a majority of Paypal, similar to EMC/WMware.) I owned it in the $40's and sold in the mid-$50's, - if it offered a dividend I'd maybe be interested longer-term.
Aloca beat yesterday and confirmed prospect of tightening aluminum supply and rising material prices. (I missed actual call, which I always enjoy with CEO Klaus Kleinfeld, due to travel.) It ended day up nearly 4%. So, surpassed expectations, which was good since the stock has enjoyed a healthy rise recently.
Fingers-crossed as a couple biggies (BAC and GE) still to come.
Like to think these two are more important than say FB during earnings season for bull to continue, but not sure. 'Cause, if FB, TWTR, GOOG, YELP and maybe AMZN report strong, could very well put bears back a-snooze.
Kinda/sorta thinking about ENY , although the more I watch Bill Miller be bullish on CNBC this morning the less I want to add to anything/add anything.
Hard to get excited about anything right now. Perhaps I'll add to health care (VHT), but not immediately. I was watching iShares Indonesia (EIDO) as a satellite holding, but that tanked yesterday and again today after a leading political candidate didn't do as well as expected in a recent election.
So just holding onto my core portfolio while maintaining my cash position.
On Wednesday, I bumped up a YAFFX position to what I consider a fully funded status. From where it was YTD, it basically was a bet that it will finish the year in the black.
Overall market, while still slightly under all time high, continues to brush off concerns, like high flyer valuations, Russian intervention in Ukraine, expected raise in interest rates, GM recalls, etc.
Expectations for earnings pretty low this season because of harsh winter. And, US consumer spending up.
I pared back JBSS, SENEA, and SCHN this morning.
Opened new position in RSIIX. My first bond purchase in about a year.
Like David Sherman's other fund (RPHIX), this one continues to be steady-eddy:
And, like my WBMIX holding, there is no short-term redemption fee, something I am appreciating more and more...and Junkster taught us to look for. Basically, I suspect a fund manager/house needs to be pretty confident to not impose such a fee. Sure, they recognize increased competition from growth in exchange traded funds. Still, think it bodes well for shareholders.
So, current portfolio allocation, net positions: 33% cash, 50% US stocks (mostly value...base materials, industrials, finanicials, energy), 10% foreign stocks (mostly EM), 7% bonds.
May start looking to had some developed European exposure.
Remaining cautiously optimistic heading into spring, but becoming more sensitive to signs of trouble. Earning expectations will be higher for 2Q/3Q. Growth needs to be clear and present. If it is not there, suspect bears will be out in force.
Following the recommendation of a number of you aI've been trying to consolidate my personal portfolio down to two basic sleeves (partially due to a split between a 403(b) account and IRA account) with a reduced number (3) of funds each, but I'm struggling to figure out which to make as my global small-cap. Thoughts on GPROX before it closes, versus ARTWX, DGSNX or KGDAX (load waived)?
The rest of my funds have ended up in: sleeve 1: MOAT 31.5% FMIJX 23.5% DLTNX 5%
sleeve 2: ARTGX 25% GPEOX 12.5% global small-cap 12.5%
My timeline is over 30 years, and I expect as managers change things will of course need to evolve. I also hope to be able to check in at most every 3 months to rebalance once I've settled everything into place.
For those following my earlier post here, my fiancee ended up with a small holding in DREGX.
Thoughts on GPROX before it closes, versus ARTWX ... GPEOX 12.5% global small-cap 12.5%
Can only tell you what I did, which is look at both and settle on GPROX. Not familiar with the other two. Liked GPROX's broader mandate and small market cap. Also liked that the firm was a specialist in the field and seemed to be a really strong steward with approachable management.
That being said, if you add GPROX, you would have substantial overlap with GPEOX, which is a subset of Global Reach. Artisan also has a solid pedigree with ARTJX.
Can only tell you what I did, which is look at both and settle on GPROX. Not familiar with the other two. Liked GPROX's broader mandate and small market cap. Also liked that the firm was a specialist in the field and seemed to be a really strong steward with approachable management.
That being said, if you add GPROX, you would have substantial overlap with GPEOX, which is a subset of Global Reach. Artisan also has a solid pedigree with ARTJX.
Good luck.
@Ted had recommended a different share class of DGSNX. I went back to see your discussion looking at GPROX and ARTWX, over at mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/36419/, and your points were solid. I do worry about the overweighting. I think I'm going to try to have my cake and eat it too, by having the fiancee invest her global small-caps in GPROX while mine will go to ARTWX. Then I'll probably decide a few years down the road to consolidate again, once they have longer track records.
Comments
Current holdings...
Funds: WBMIX, FAAFX, SIGIX, DODGX.
Stocks: BAC, HCP, SCHN, AA, GE, APA, SENEA, JBSS.
Watching for other opportunities, but value getting harder to find.
Until then, steady as she goes, as we head into springtime and earnings season. Wanting no (bad) surprises.
The first quarter rebalancing over the last few weeks has changed the fixed income allocation in core portfolio a bit. Reduced floating rate, GNMA and High Yield and increased EM bonds.
Call is Thursday: And, next week Alcoa 4/8. Week after Bank of America 4/16 and GE 4/17.
Enjoyed a 6% pop early, likely on short squeeze, and ended day up a very respectable 4%.
So far, so good.
Little concerned about expectations for AA next week, but here too, business improving, material price trending higher, and Alcoa is capitalizing on innovation.
Fingers-crossed.
Assuming you mean that you have a long time horizon (in which case trying to time value is unnecessary) and assuming current global market composition, 8-10% EM allocation for a moderate portfolio and 3-5% for conservative allocation would be reasonable. X-Ray your portfolio to see how much EM exposure your portfolio already has and supplement it for any remaining percentage.
Regards,
Ted
Thinking of Peter Lynch's maxim to invest in what you know, might EBAY be worth considering? Their business model is much different from Amazon's and I don't really understand it - or for that matter the other types of challenges the firm faces. Just some pondering here.
Regards
As for Prime and higher prices:
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=228849
Fingers-crossed as a couple biggies (BAC and GE) still to come.
Like to think these two are more important than say FB during earnings season for bull to continue, but not sure. 'Cause, if FB, TWTR, GOOG, YELP and maybe AMZN report strong, could very well put bears back a-snooze.
So just holding onto my core portfolio while maintaining my cash position.
YHOO up 7% after forecasting growth.
GE due up tomorrow. Well, let's hope it's up!
Overall market, while still slightly under all time high, continues to brush off concerns, like high flyer valuations, Russian intervention in Ukraine, expected raise in interest rates, GM recalls, etc.
Expectations for earnings pretty low this season because of harsh winter. And, US consumer spending up.
I pared back JBSS, SENEA, and SCHN this morning.
Opened new position in RSIIX. My first bond purchase in about a year.
Like David Sherman's other fund (RPHIX), this one continues to be steady-eddy:
And, like my WBMIX holding, there is no short-term redemption fee, something I am appreciating more and more...and Junkster taught us to look for. Basically, I suspect a fund manager/house needs to be pretty confident to not impose such a fee. Sure, they recognize increased competition from growth in exchange traded funds. Still, think it bodes well for shareholders.
So, current portfolio allocation, net positions: 33% cash, 50% US stocks (mostly value...base materials, industrials, finanicials, energy), 10% foreign stocks (mostly EM), 7% bonds.
May start looking to had some developed European exposure.
Remaining cautiously optimistic heading into spring, but becoming more sensitive to signs of trouble. Earning expectations will be higher for 2Q/3Q. Growth needs to be clear and present. If it is not there, suspect bears will be out in force.
The rest of my funds have ended up in:
sleeve 1:
MOAT 31.5%
FMIJX 23.5%
DLTNX 5%
sleeve 2:
ARTGX 25%
GPEOX 12.5%
global small-cap 12.5%
My timeline is over 30 years, and I expect as managers change things will of course need to evolve. I also hope to be able to check in at most every 3 months to rebalance once I've settled everything into place.
For those following my earlier post here, my fiancee ended up with a small holding in DREGX.
Which brokerage will allow entry in this share class with less than $1,000,000?
Mona
Mona
That being said, if you add GPROX, you would have substantial overlap with GPEOX, which is a subset of Global Reach. Artisan also has a solid pedigree with ARTJX.
Good luck.
Yes, JedClampett is spot-on.
Schwab.
I have a Personal Choice Retirement Account (PCRA) with them, which has been great, always.
Not same experience with Schwab retail, unfortunately.
If it had been as good as their PCRA service, Schwab would literally hold all our financial accounts...checking, credit card, HELOC, IRAs, etc.
But at the end of the day, Schwab retail just could not walk the talk.
So, yes Schwab.
But it exists in many forms.
Just be cautious.
Charles