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Lol, Ah I just read that. Yes, neither has done too well YTD but the levered version has done much worse (-1.3% vs -5.1%). Important lesson to people that leverage can indeed increase risk even if it's intent is to be somewhat defensive, with leverage timing is much more important.
Reply to @mrc70: Mr. Arnott tends to be down on all developed markets where he sees debt and demographic headwinds similar to those he believes are facing US.
Reply to @Charles: I think the issue becomes sort of an all or none, given the way that All Asset/All Authority is. If you asked Arnott whether or not he believed that - despite his views on the US "big picture" - if there were sectors or specific themes he believed would work - he probably would say yes.
However, All Asset & AA/AA rely on other funds to choose stocks. That's why I wish that Arnott would run a version of the fund not limited to other Pimco funds; if he was negative on US big picture but liked heath care due to demographics, he could include the health care ETF or whatever.
Pimco could even give it a name like, "All Asset Unconstrained."
For the next 7 years they expect real return of US stocks to be - 1.2% per year; small cap ones - 2.7% per year, US high quality + 3.7%, developed international + 3%, EM + 7%, the highest among all other options.
Reply to @scott: Good comments. Any idea how he can manage other funds that must be sold and bought without screwing up the management of those funds? Isn't that a constraining issue to say the least?
Comments
However, All Asset & AA/AA rely on other funds to choose stocks. That's why I wish that Arnott would run a version of the fund not limited to other Pimco funds; if he was negative on US big picture but liked heath care due to demographics, he could include the health care ETF or whatever.
Pimco could even give it a name like, "All Asset Unconstrained."
For the next 7 years they expect real return of US stocks to be - 1.2% per year; small cap ones - 2.7% per year, US high quality + 3.7%, developed international + 3%, EM + 7%, the highest among all other options.
The Wall Street Ranter
http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_insight/2013/07/how-to-profit-from-the-shiller-cape-ratio.html