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US intelligence reporting sees direct attacks by Iran as the greatest threat to oil tankers going through the strait of Hormuz, the key transit passage for the global oil trade that has been effectively shut down by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard since the start of the US-Israeli war against Iran. The Trump administration carried out strikes against 16 mine-laying vessels near the strait on Tuesday. But the more potent threat remains the risk of a direct attack by Iran at scale – for instance, a swarm of one-way attack drones or a series of shore-to-ship ballistic missiles, according to two people familiar with the intelligence who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive details.
The problem comes because just one missile or drone slipping through defenses could decimate or sink a tanker, giving Iran leverage even as the US launched what a senior administration official described as its largest attack against Iran in the conflict to date. As a result, even if US navy destroyers escorted the tankers, they might not be able to intercept every incoming missile, and even in the event the Trump administration provides risk insurance directly to operators, ships’ crews would still need to be convinced to pilot the vessels through the strait.
Mines in some ways were more straightforward to deal with, because the US was prepared in advance of the war for the possibility of Iran attempting to mine the strategically important waterway through which a fifth of the global oil trade passes, the people said. The issues with protecting oil tankers in the strait was discussed by US military officials in a classified briefing to top lawmakers on Tuesday, according to a person familiar with the matter.
The strait of Hormuz is a key passage that connects the Persian Gulf to the northern Arabian Sea. The coastline of Iran runs along one side of the strait, and military and civilian vessels transiting through are at risk of shore-launched attacks as they enter or exit the gulf. Since the start of the conflict on 28 February, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard has effectively shut down the strait and stranded oil tankers. The cut in supply has contributed to a steep increase in oil prices, which in turn have translated to higher gas prices for US consumers.
Fearing an attack by Iran, virtually all ship operators have stopped their tankers from passing through the strait. On Wednesday, at least three ships were hit in and around the strait, including one Japanese container vessel and two so-called bulk carriers that carry loose cargo like grain. Only one of the bulk carriers, the Mayuree Naree from Thailand, appeared to be in the strait when it was attacked. The other vessels were in the Persian Gulf, according to marine tracking data. Iran claimed responsibility for the attack against the Mayuree Naree.
© 2015 Mutual Fund Observer. All rights reserved.
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Evidently no one at headquarters has got around to explaining the above to Mr. Trump yet. Or, maybe they tried but he didn't want to hear about all of that-
new strikes on Iranian targets. Iran retaliated across the region and effectively shut down
the vital Strait of Hormuz, prompting countries around the world to take unprecedented steps
to keep oil flowing."
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/iran-targets-ships-in-strait-of-hormuz-raising-global-energy-fears
Comments: The International Energy Agency announced it would release 400 million barrels of oil from
its emergency reserves. This would be one of the largest distributions of reserves in history representing
approximately 20 days' worth of oil shipments via the Straight of Hormuz.
There have been many military strikes executed by the U.S., Israel, and Iran in recent days.
It does not seem like the Iran war will be ending anytime soon despite Donald J. Trump's latest comments.
Group of Seven nations the White House’s position Tuesday morning: A massive intervention
in oil markets was premature because the price of oil had recently dipped below $90 a barrel."
"Less than two hours later, U.S. officials reversed their earlier position and pushed their counterparts
for a major release of oil, said people familiar with the matter. The 180 degree turn was entirely due
to a change of heart by President Trump, said a senior administration official."
"The 32 member nations of the International Energy Agency agreed to the largest release of emergency
oil stocks in the group’s history, breaking with the international body’s own conventions, which typically
give members 48 hours to review proposals. The amount, 400 million barrels, is more than double the
previous release and comes at a time when the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is only 60% full—
despite a pledge by Trump to fill it completely."
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/president-trump-s-head-spinning-pivot-on-an-emergency-oil-release/ar-AA1YqzdR
"The International Energy Agency slashed its forecast for oil-supply growth a day after a historic
emergency-stock release, as the Middle East war chokes flows through one of the world's most
critical oil-transit routes."
"The organization, made up of a group of Western nations and their allies, now expects supply
to grow by 1.1 million barrels a day this year—a dramatic cut from the 2.4 million barrels a day
expected previously. All supply growth is expected to come from outside the OPEC+ alliance
as the conflict forces major Gulf producers to curb output. In March, supply is projected to plunge
by 8 million barrels a day to 98.8 million barrels a day, the lowest levels since the first quarter of 2022."
"'The war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market,'
the IEA said in its closely watched monthly report on Thursday.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/12/iran-war-persian-gulf-strait-of-hormuz-ships-uae-iraq.html
set off homemade explosive devices at Gracie Mansion a few days ago.
Two assailants opened fire at the U.S. Consulate in Toronto, Canada.
Three brothers of Iraqi origin were arrested for the recent bombing
of the U.S. Embassy in Oslo, Norway.
Let's see what happens when I press *THIS* lever... (Oh, shit! I guess we shouldn't call it a war, after all.) Spineless on The Hill. Make a good name for a memoir, eh?
Better yet, this admin went and shot themselves (and us) in the foot....
Kash Patel gutted FBI counterintelligence team tasked with tracking Iranian threats days before US strikes
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/03/politics/patel-fbi-national-security-division-firings-iran
This admin is always one step ahead!