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Oaktree Market Commentary - Dispersion

"We believe we’re entering a new era of dispersion in the performance of financial assets. Behind buoyant index averages are sharply bifurcated cohorts of winners and losers. Equities are flying high but remain mostly propelled by a handful of AI superstars. Credit appears healthy in aggregate, but there’s a notable tail of unloved names. Economic growth looks robust but masks clear divergence in the experience of high- and low-income consumers, a phenomenon now termed the “k-shaped economy.” These dynamics serve as a reminder that averages shouldn’t be relied upon in a sophisticated investment process."

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Comments

  • Thanks @Mark. Always enjoy reading Howard Marks.

    "Part of the conundrum, as always, will be delineating between assets that are (a) unreasonably discounted due to psychological aversion and (b) appropriately discounted because they’re fundamentally flawed."

    He's addressing credit here. But I think the same is true of equities in today's environment - possibly even more so.

  • with the software growth trap triggering, 'dispersion' will be the most over-used phrase in 2026q1.

    image
  • @a2z -- can you explain this graphic? How are the "trap" companies identified here, for example ?
  • a2z
    edited February 4
    generally, and for me, growth trap revenues havent peaked but fall below consensus over x timeframe. value trap revenues do not recover to some past mean\median.

    graph from gmo , who splits them per MSCI Value and Growth indices with consistent definitions of value and growth across the world :
    "a trap as a company in either the value or growth universe that both disappointed on revenues in the last 12 months and saw its future revenue forecast decline as well.... what seems to be somewhat less well known is that growth traps are both more common and more painful than their value brethren..."
  • It’s none other than Howard Marks, the same guy who called a market bubble in January 2025…and got it wrong.

    As I said back then, nothing really changed. It’s a lot of fluff: always hedging, always covering every base (“markets could go this way, but they could also go the other way”), and never offering anything actionable.

    Marks is supposedly a bond expert; did he recommend international bonds as a great play in 2025? Because guess who actually posted about it months ago and, for the first time in his life, invested directly in them a huge percentage?
  • edited 9:52AM
    @FD - Too silly to respond to.

    Please answer: Are there any investors, private or institutional, who are smarter than you? If so, please list a few below ...

    1.

    2.

    3.
  • edited 1:08PM
    hank said:

    @FD - Too silly to respond to.

    Please answer: Are there any investors, private or institutional, who are smarter than you? If so, please list a few below ...

    1.

    2.

    3.

    I'm looking for insight. How can I make money.
    Marks typical....
    Something is good, but....
    The idea is never to commit to anything.

    There are very smart investors I know and all of them are based their investments on what markets do. The market is the best indication of success.
    It doesn't matter what investors think...and that's the key.
    There are also good posters on this board and better than Marks because they have an opinion that will make you money.
    Charles Bolin is another good resource.

  • @a2z - I guess my point was more that traps seem like they can only be evaluated post-hoc; so how do I know what the YTD loss % is to, say, value traps.
  • @FD100 -- pretty sure Howard Marks has a very strong track record as an investor; looking at one or two good or bad years / bad calls is kind of silly for evaluating something like market performance.
  • @Shostakovich

    well, one may argue 'is it post-hoc yet?' but all evaluations are such.

    take this month's notable scam, bitcoin treasury companies.
    despite every single warning element of probable outcome, there will be people that claim they made money on the way up.

    want a prediction? today djt stock in not zero, but it will be.
    others disagree.

    image
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