Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
The EU is pivoting while old sleepy Don naps, dreaming of Peace prizes and his Epstein days. The EU's deal with India could really be a boon to their auto sales in that market.
hilarious that perpetually lying MAGA cronies report 2nd-hand apologies to trump as if they are meaningful, while actual binding deals are being executed.
'"Carney, who was very aggressively walking back some of the unfortunate remarks he made at Davos," Bessent said...'
what has changed is that many former allies have decided that 1-on-1 meetings with trump seeking a bribe for ephemeral trade promises are a waste of time. serve trump empanadas if needed.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said Tuesday he told U.S. President Donald Trump that he meant what he said in his speech at Davos, and told him Canada plans to diversify away from the United States with a dozen new trade deals.
Carney rolled his eyes and rejected U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s contention to Fox News that he aggressively walked back his comments at the World Economic Forum during a phone call with Trump on Monday.
“To be absolutely clear, and I said this to the president, I meant what I said in Davos,” Carney said to reporters as he arrived for a Cabinet meeting in the capital, Ottawa.
“Canada was the first country to understand the change in U.S. trade policy that he initiated, and we’re responding to that. ”
EU and India Clinch ‘Mother of All Deals’ in Rebuff to Trump
(Bloomberg) -- The European Union and India concluded a free trade agreement after nearly two decades of negotiations, as both sides seek to deepen economic ties and offset the impact of Washington’s tariff policies.
“We have concluded the mother of all deals,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on X on Tuesday. “We have created a free trade zone of two billion people, with both sides set to benefit.” Von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa are in New Delhi to mark the moment.
Yeah, this is what we have forced the rest of the world into. Instead of strengthening our hand and improving what might have been reasonable adjustments, we have pushed other countries into the arms of our trade adversaries.
China exports are at a record high. Three of the biggest markets are now disadvantaged to us - China, India & EU. That has real long term ramifications, which will persist long after trump. And it is exactly what was predicted before trump created trade wars.
Meanwhile the devaluation of the dollar continues, making imports more expensive, on top of tariffs. And the debt piles up. There have been no quick, advantageous trade deals signed. A few minor "agreements" that appear to have been already in the offing are presented as wins.
How we know that the tariffs are costing taxpayers billions and not producing results? That maga adherents are not presenting big trade deals as evidence, instead they are talking trash
@Anna and @rforno, thank you. Great alliance and future trading partner.
In 2026 the developed and EM indexes are ahead of US already. Let the race begins.
And we are still building vast debt, selling at ever lower interest rates, presumably to markets that we have spurned. Does our cheap dollar make our exports more attractive, or is that offset by boycotts and avoidance of U.S. goods?
These plans are ill-conceived. Just like opening up public land in CO for oil exploration and getting zero bids. No one actually wants what this administration is attempting to sell.
We appear to have done everyone, except ourselves, a great service.
Since last summer I've been saying that world economics, trade, and security alliances, will start to restructure to work around, or perhaps WITH, the USA, but not necessarily THROUGH it, or be dependent on it. Donnie's shown the world how fickle the US political system really is -- and how resistant it is to necessary structural change to ensure its stability.
If the Digital Euro becomes a thing, that'll be a huge red flag, imo.
Yes, you and me both. It appears that we have presented the catalyst for everyone else to work together and improve their situations. Very possibly at our expense.
At the same time our population growth rate is contracting, and that never bodes well for economic growth. Companies like Nike, are seeing the writing on the wall and letting go of employees, as they increase automation. U.S. manufacturing jobs have fallen significantly in this same period.
People that voted for this approach claimed they wanted to see an increase in low-skill jobs. They seem to be getting the exact opposite. Some are either calling this a positive development, or seeking to muddy the water, with the usual deflections and whataboutisms.
Not sure we have even begun to see the result of losing a large portion of our construction workforce or our agriculture workforce. But, you can be sure that farmers will be needing a huge bailout. And houses will not become cheaper to build.
trump threatens tariffs and backs down. Markets have come to ignore these threats. Meanwhile Canada does what it says, without immature provocations or threats. They are not initiating trouble, they are responding without kowtowing.
Do not forget that there is neither any meaningful drug flow from Canada, nor any meaningful trade imbalance. Both rationalizations have zero merit. This was an unforced error on trump's part, and Canada is to be commended for simply moving on from a relationship that has turned abusive.
In other news, Reuters reporting earlier today that Europe and India signing "mother of all deals" including trade, defense, etc., numerous industries impacted. This after Carney becomes a minor hero at Davos calling for the "middle nations" to unite and form their own defense and economic pacts.
You see, the more DJT pushes people away, the more they say "you win, we don't in fact need you so much after all...". American hegemony, economic and moral and otherwise, is dissipating.
I feel that this is not a trend that will be halted. As these nations see the advantage of creating new trade relationships, and limiting U.S. leverage, they may eventually use that newfound circumstance to pressure the U.S. into even more favorable terms than they had originally. A complete backfire.
The problem is that they see trump's appetite as unlimited - there is no place for weakness, when your adversary wants it all. Take the pain up front and move on.
@Anna and @rforno, thank you. Great alliance and future trading partner.
In 2026 the developed and EM indexes are ahead of US already. Let the race begins.
Pretty funny. Since 2010, big tech, QQQ, made so much more than EM and developed. Unless you are 20 years old and started 2 years ago, you missed about 15 years of unbelievable performance. After a performance like that, no one should expect the next 10 years to be the same. But, if you are so confident, please tell us you sold all your US equities for the next 10 years.
The chart says it all. https://schrts.co/WEIsQbqS SP500 beat EM by 7 times and QQQ by close to 15 times. SP500 beat VXUS by 4+ times and QQQ by close to 9+ times.
Comments
hilarious that perpetually lying MAGA cronies report 2nd-hand apologies to trump as if they are meaningful, while actual binding deals are being executed.
'"Carney, who was very aggressively walking back some of the unfortunate remarks he made at Davos," Bessent said...'
what has changed is that many former allies have decided that 1-on-1 meetings with trump seeking a bribe for ephemeral trade promises are a waste of time. serve trump empanadas if needed.
Carney says Bessent full of beans.
China exports are at a record high. Three of the biggest markets are now disadvantaged to us - China, India & EU. That has real long term ramifications, which will persist long after trump. And it is exactly what was predicted before trump created trade wars.
Meanwhile the devaluation of the dollar continues, making imports more expensive, on top of tariffs. And the debt piles up. There have been no quick, advantageous trade deals signed. A few minor "agreements" that appear to have been already in the offing are presented as wins.
How we know that the tariffs are costing taxpayers billions and not producing results? That maga adherents are not presenting big trade deals as evidence, instead they are talking trash
These plans are ill-conceived. Just like opening up public land in CO for oil exploration and getting zero bids. No one actually wants what this administration is attempting to sell.
We appear to have done everyone, except ourselves, a great service.
At the same time our population growth rate is contracting, and that never bodes well for economic growth. Companies like Nike, are seeing the writing on the wall and letting go of employees, as they increase automation. U.S. manufacturing jobs have fallen significantly in this same period.
People that voted for this approach claimed they wanted to see an increase in low-skill jobs. They seem to be getting the exact opposite. Some are either calling this a positive development, or seeking to muddy the water, with the usual deflections and whataboutisms.
Not sure we have even begun to see the result of losing a large portion of our construction workforce or our agriculture workforce. But, you can be sure that farmers will be needing a huge bailout. And houses will not become cheaper to build.
Do not forget that there is neither any meaningful drug flow from Canada, nor any meaningful trade imbalance. Both rationalizations have zero merit. This was an unforced error on trump's part, and Canada is to be commended for simply moving on from a relationship that has turned abusive.
You see, the more DJT pushes people away, the more they say "you win, we don't in fact need you so much after all...". American hegemony, economic and moral and otherwise, is dissipating.
The problem is that they see trump's appetite as unlimited - there is no place for weakness, when your adversary wants it all. Take the pain up front and move on.
Since 2010, big tech, QQQ, made so much more than EM and developed.
Unless you are 20 years old and started 2 years ago, you missed about 15 years of unbelievable performance. After a performance like that, no one should expect the next 10 years to be the same. But, if you are so confident, please tell us you sold all your US equities for the next 10 years.
The chart says it all. https://schrts.co/WEIsQbqS
SP500 beat EM by 7 times and QQQ by close to 15 times.
SP500 beat VXUS by 4+ times and QQQ by close to 9+ times.