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I remember the good old days when I seriously looked at things like PE ratios and rightly moved money in the late 90s and in 2007. But I haven't been able to brag since then and find myself sitting at age 77 with lots of dollars and not even trusting that dollars are any good. It seems to me I am way out of my league when I don't find actual data to be of any use. I am not a good seer like you guys and just sit tight while everyone else makes money. It's OK, I don't think I will need any more money.
Gold-miners are cyclicals, so their P/Es have to be interpreted differently. At cyclical peaks, P/Es are LOW, at cyclical bottoms, P/Es are HIGH or N/A (due to loss).
I remember the good old days when I seriously looked at things like PE ratios and rightly moved money in the late 90s and in 2007. But I haven't been able to brag since then and find myself sitting at age 77 with lots of dollars and not even trusting that dollars are any good. It seems to me I am way out of my league when I don't find actual data to be of any use. I am not a good seer like you guys and just sit tight while everyone else makes money. It's OK, I don't think I will need any more money.
My goodness, you might be the smartest on this Board.
Bit of a whiplash today for gold and silver as Kevin Warsh is announced new Fed Chair.
How long before Warsh is being picked apart and badgered based on daily whims? Do they decide to actually cut back on FED renovations after he is installed, or forget all about that?
Warsh faces a contentious Senate confirmation process. The Senate Banking Committee will be the first body to review his nomination. This committee currently consists of 13 Republicans and 11 Democrats. Republican Senator Thom Tillis stated that he will oppose any Federal Reserve nominees until the DOJ's inquiry into Fed Chairman Powell is resolved.
It is unclear to me how independent Warsh will be since he was a critic of the FED in the past. So are the other three candidates who are all dovish. Will Warsh take orders from Trump and cut rates aggressively and reignite inflation ?
Well sure, but we know it will happen on schedule. As we approach the limit of Powell's chairmanship, he will become inconsequential.
The whole dynamic of the new chairman is bizarre anyhow. Why him? What agreement has already been hashed out? He may be qualified, but that doesn't mean he is not malleable to political whims.
Donald J. Trump publicly stated that he would like the Federal Reserve to cut the fed funds rate to 1%. Rates this low are usually associated with an economic crisis. If the Fed decreased rates to this level during "normal" times, markets would react violently. Trump should be very careful what he wishes for!
It is unclear to me how independent Warsh will be since he was a critic of the FED in the past. So are the other three candidates who are all dovish. Will Warsh take orders from Trump and cut rates aggressively and reignite inflation ?
Yes, PM dropped considerably today.
Posted the above comments before I saw this. Exactly what I wonder, also. How is any of this viewed as a positive IDK.
Donald J. Trump publicly stated that he would like the Federal Reserve to cut the fed funds rate to 1%. Rates this low are usually associated with an economic crisis. If the Fed decreased rates to this level during "normal" times, markets would react violently. Trump should be very careful what he wishes for!
I totally agree. Heck, he was demanding "negative rates" during his first term in 2019.
Plain old fashioned profit taking? Our only PM is the 25% in our PRPFX. I have been thinking of selling because of the over performance of its PM component. But it kept going up and I guess I got greedy.
I've been talking about Nose Bleed volatility playing silver, and down 27% in a day seems to qualify. feh.
Twice this week, they have driven down the POS 15% and in both cases, it rebounded to close in the Green for the day. Today, they pulled out all stops and it worked . . . for the day. Folks, this really has no impact on the fundamentals. Demand is still off the map and supply is still restricted. And this is a very thin market. A fart and it moves 5%.
I'm holding, have forever and will, until the GSR approaches 15 to 1.
And most of all, I'm ignoring the noise. Always have - always will.
Now, there are a lot of issues in the guts of the market. My local coin shop is NOT buying either Gold nor Silver. The wholesalers and refiners are so backlogged it's blocking the liquidity of the market. When I send 1000 oz to a wholesaler, he has to verify and assay and THEN pay me. Whelp, he's so stacked he's holding for longer and that's MY money - being held. Over in Asia, for silver delivered [read: street price], they're paying in the $140s. This morning, the asking price for an ASE at Apmex was $20 over the spot. This simply emphasizes the spread between the Paper price and the Street price.
CNBC said, this was the biggest drop in Silver since 1980. Feh, I was there. The kid was finishing his degree in Econ financed with GI Bill and the selling of my silver stack from my restaurant gig - the latter paid for a lot of partying. teehehe.
I Don't doubt the demand story. But, if I bought and lost 30% in a matter of days, I would be stressed. Even if it recovered half of that, it would not please me.
I might make some purchases of SLVR and SILJ if it came down again tomorrow, even a smallish amount. It would not surprise me if it did go up though.
Actually, I've placed a couple of limit orders at $30 for SILJ and $60 for SLVR. Most likely too low, but I guess that we'll see. They both recoved a bit in after-hours. rono has been doing this for many years, is not a speculator, and I trust his judgement. In fact, we went through the Hunt brothers thing way back when.
Comments
Surely that can't be right- president Cow Pie just told us that there's nothing that we need from Canada.
😧
I remember the good old days when I seriously looked at things like PE ratios and rightly moved money in the late 90s and in 2007. But I haven't been able to brag since then and find myself sitting at age 77 with lots of dollars and not even trusting that dollars are any good. It seems to me I am way out of my league when I don't find actual data to be of any use. I am not a good seer like you guys and just sit tight while everyone else makes money. It's OK, I don't think I will need any more money.For example, NEM has fwd P/E of 15.93, ETF GDX fwd P/E is 13.02. These P/Es anticipate great windfall profits - gold prices have skyrocketed, but all-in mining costs are only marginally up.
https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnys/nem/valuation
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/gdx/portfolio
What is most revealing is how much this run up in PMs had to do with perceived FED independence worries.
I think the case for demand is still operable, but at what entry point? Going lower?
Do they decide to actually cut back on FED renovations after he is installed, or forget all about that?
The Senate Banking Committee will be the first body to review his nomination.
This committee currently consists of 13 Republicans and 11 Democrats.
Republican Senator Thom Tillis stated that he will oppose any Federal Reserve
nominees until the DOJ's inquiry into Fed Chairman Powell is resolved.
Yes, PM dropped considerably today.
The whole dynamic of the new chairman is bizarre anyhow. Why him? What agreement has already been hashed out? He may be qualified, but that doesn't mean he is not malleable to political whims.
Rates this low are usually associated with an economic crisis.
If the Fed decreased rates to this level during "normal" times, markets would react violently.
Trump should be very careful what he wishes for!
Not comforting.
Hey !!! Free Money !!! Go for it !!!
Or was there some other reason?
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/30/silver-gold-fall-price-usd-dollar-fed-warsh-chair-trump-metals.html
I've been talking about Nose Bleed volatility playing silver, and down 27% in a day seems to qualify. feh.
Twice this week, they have driven down the POS 15% and in both cases, it rebounded to close in the Green for the day. Today, they pulled out all stops and it worked . . . for the day. Folks, this really has no impact on the fundamentals. Demand is still off the map and supply is still restricted. And this is a very thin market. A fart and it moves 5%.
I'm holding, have forever and will, until the GSR approaches 15 to 1.
And most of all, I'm ignoring the noise. Always have - always will.
Now, there are a lot of issues in the guts of the market. My local coin shop is NOT buying either Gold nor Silver. The wholesalers and refiners are so backlogged it's blocking the liquidity of the market. When I send 1000 oz to a wholesaler, he has to verify and assay and THEN pay me. Whelp, he's so stacked he's holding for longer and that's MY money - being held. Over in Asia, for silver delivered [read: street price], they're paying in the $140s. This morning, the asking price for an ASE at Apmex was $20 over the spot. This simply emphasizes the spread between the Paper price and the Street price.
CNBC said, this was the biggest drop in Silver since 1980. Feh, I was there. The kid was finishing his degree in Econ financed with GI Bill and the selling of my silver stack from my restaurant gig - the latter paid for a lot of partying. teehehe.
and so it goes,
peace,
ron
Thanks @rono.
I might make some purchases of SLVR and SILJ if it came down again tomorrow, even a smallish amount. It would not surprise me if it did go up though.