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China won 2025 trade war

DrVenture
in Other Investing
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/31/trump-china-trade-war-tariffs.html

"Washington turned to tariffs and tightened access to advanced technology early in the year, assuming China’s slowing growth and overextended property sector would make it an easy target and would force quick concession. It didn’t. Beijing absorbed the shock and retaliated with a master class in economic statecraft and policy discipline. Controls on rare-earth exports were applied with precision where U.S. defense and automobile manufacturers remained deeply reliant and vulnerable. Customs and regulatory friction appeared dialed up just enough to induce pain without provoking panic. And Chinese exporters diverted flows through Southeast Asia and Mexico, dulling the effects of tariffs even as headline restrictions intensified.

The numbers tell the story. As we ended November, China’s goods trade surplus had climbed past the $1 trillion mark for the first time, illustrating how external demand continued to power growth despite American pressure."

Comments

  • DrVenture
    I assume that any further weakening of the U.S. economy will make our decision makers very eager to put a bandage on this self-inflicted wound.
  • a2z

    am by no stretch a china optimist (especially for foreign investors), but they have been playing checkers while the gop have been playing with\for themselves. america has only leveled the field regarding corruption.

    am much more optimistic regarding japan, SK.
  • DrVenture
    edited January 1
    https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/01/us-grants-tsmc-licence-to-import-us-chipmaking-tools-into-china.html

    U.S. grants TSMC annual licence to import U.S. chipmaking tools into China

    Not the most advanced chips, but still an olive branch.

    The wins for China keep coming. It is hard to see this as anything but China's strategy working exactly as planned, and the U.S. realizing that the hardline policies are not working.
  • DrVenture
    a2z said:


    am by no stretch a china optimist (especially for foreign investors), but they have been playing checkers while the gop have been playing with\for themselves. america has only leveled the field regarding corruption.

    am much more optimistic regarding japan, SK.

    I have no opinion on China's economy or investing in China. But, as far as the U.S. playing by "China rules", it certainly appears to be heading in that direction.

  • Sven
    China has been planning since Trump’s first term. They know US ‘s weakness on critical metals snd supply chain and use it to their advantages. Tariffs only plays into their hands. Chips and others tariffs are postponed till 2027. Badically, US has no leverage.

    Peter Navarro is no match to China’s experienced trading team.
  • Old_JoeOld_Joe
    Peter Navarro is just another trump clown.
  • a2z
    edited January 1
    yep. i used 'checkers' because it doesnt require any complex scenario vs the gop braintrust.
    they have aspirational economic wishes with no ability for a viable strategy nor execution...plus kleptocracy keeps them fairly busy.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/12/31/us/trump-deals-policy-conflicts-web.html?unlocked_article_code=1.BFA.Gt6z.bkmB6UaGXW-m
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