Take it as you will, but imo it probably at least warrants some caution. Per BBG:
At the big banks and the boutique investment shops, an optimistic consensus has taken hold: the US stock market will rally in 2026 for a fourth straight year, marking the longest winning streak in nearly two decades.
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But after three years when the equity market’s rip-roaring run made a mockery of any bearish calls, sell-side strategists are marching in lockstep optimism, with the average year-end S&P 500 forecast implying another 9% gain next year.
Not a single one of the 21 prognosticators surveyed by Bloomberg News is predicting a decline.< - >
“The pessimists have just been wrong for so long that people are kind of tired of that schtick,” said veteran market strategist and longtime bull Ed Yardeni. He expects the S&P to finish next year at 7,700 — up 11% from Friday’s close — yet even he finds the lack of dissent a little concerning.
“That’s where my counter instincts come out: Things have been going my way for so long that it is kind of worrying that everyone else seems to have become optimistic,” he said. “Pessimism is on the out right now.”
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Full article @
https://archive.ph/7it02
Comments
The bears had been beaten down and have now totally disappeared.
but it may not last the entire q1 2026.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/65194/jan-effect-2026#latest
i suspect today's broad dumping of precious metals is a play to capture 2026 equity gains.
Excellent thread. I have no real opinion, per se. I can see arguments that this can go on longer than is rational. And arguments that it is a reasonable proposition. And arguments that valuations matter. And/or that a "backfill scenario" can happen while tech simply remains rather static.
I would add that 9% return, with +/- a couple percent, may be equivalent to a good MS bond fund in 2026. As a possible counterpoint to a more risky approach.
I am prepared to go in several directions. A portfolio with lots of cash. A strong FI component. A value shift in 2025. Plenty of legacy tech. I feel pretty comfortable watching how things evolve.
My YTD return @ 62% equity is ~16.5%. Standing pat for now. Official retirement in 6 months and counting.
Given this track record, it’s hard to understand why people continue to read or post market predictions when history shows they are largely unreliable.
Warren Buffett famously said, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” While catchy, this advice is often overstated. If you had sold at any point over the last 15 years because “others were greedy,” you would likely have underperformed the market, unless you had near-perfect timing.
Markets have been labeled “overvalued” for years (= greedy investors), yet they continued to deliver strong returns. Even Buffett himself has been accumulating cash over the past three years, during which the S&P 500 gained roughly 90%. For most investors, that cash-heavy positioning would have resulted in significant underperformance.
Such "education" would be far more relevant on an Investing 101 forum. Some folks cannot read a room and love pontification as if it were a sport.
I should start a thread that trolls him in, then let an AI keep him busy for months.
The circular investment and concentrated AI stocks may present challenges to hit new high. 2022 was the turning point of new lows for both stocks and bonds simultaneously. And that was only 3 years ago.
Edit: . Seriously doubt that he made outstanding gain in 2022. Even for those who were 100% in cash, money market yield was only about 1%. The yield curve did not invert until the FED raised the interest rate. Very few bond funds had positive gain.
Also much higher prices, with no end in sight, may also drive low consumer sentiment, I would suppose. Making context relevant.
...which the Federal Reserve then steps in to do something about. We have had 3 rate cuts in 2025, and now the Fed has started up QE5 (although they are not calling it that yet).
Q.E. is just a default by a more innocuous name--- via watering-down the value of the dollar. (Lyn Alden.) If the greenback were not the world's reserve currency, we'd be screwed by such profligate idiocy. And crypto (which Alden favors) only serves to subvert LEGAL TENDER.
What will I do with the portfolio in 2026? Not much. As for allocation, I'm happy with almost 50-50 stocks and bonds. A minority of my bonds are safer Investment Grade, but that chunk is not inconsequential. I like the monthlies from my Junk, too. My single-stocks give me quarterlies. I don't need to be concerned at this stage of the game on growing the size of the stash; and I can afford to reinvest all dividends, still--- thankfully. 2026 will be an expensive travel year. 25th wedding anniv: Europe. From Steel Magnolias:
"...I'm thinking..."
"About what?"
"About how much I hate to part with money." LOL. But we deserve the trip.
It’s also time to separate politics from investing.
Investment forums routinely discuss bonds, stocks, alternatives, long-term care, Medicare, healthcare, savings, taxes, annuities, withdrawal strategies, risk/standard deviation, and more.
Do you have to be a certain age to discuss Medicare, LTC, or withdrawal rates? Of course not. I had well-formed opinions on these retirement issues years before they personally applied to me.
Does someone who owns stocks right now automatically have better knowledge than someone who doesn’t? Of course not.
For context, since 2010 I’ve posted hundreds of times explaining why a portfolio primarily invested in U.S. large-cap stocks with a growth tilt made sense. In 2025, I began emphasizing the importance of diversification, including international exposure and gold.
Finally, for what it’s worth, I’ve helped several family members and friends, at no charge, on all of the topics mentioned above.
Lastly, and more importantly, if you have any substantive comments about my first post, please address those directly.
(I do still want that IGNORE option).
I already made over 11% YTD. You can also see since retirement as of today, using about 97% bond OEFs.
https://ibb.co/SDcTzkhd