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Bulls Only: Every Wall Street Analyst Now Predicts a Stock Rally

rforno
in Other Investing
Take it as you will, but imo it probably at least warrants some caution. Per BBG:

At the big banks and the boutique investment shops, an optimistic consensus has taken hold: the US stock market will rally in 2026 for a fourth straight year, marking the longest winning streak in nearly two decades.

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But after three years when the equity market’s rip-roaring run made a mockery of any bearish calls, sell-side strategists are marching in lockstep optimism, with the average year-end S&P 500 forecast implying another 9% gain next year. Not a single one of the 21 prognosticators surveyed by Bloomberg News is predicting a decline.

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“The pessimists have just been wrong for so long that people are kind of tired of that schtick,” said veteran market strategist and longtime bull Ed Yardeni. He expects the S&P to finish next year at 7,700 — up 11% from Friday’s close — yet even he finds the lack of dissent a little concerning.

“That’s where my counter instincts come out: Things have been going my way for so long that it is kind of worrying that everyone else seems to have become optimistic,” he said. “Pessimism is on the out right now.”

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Full article @ https://archive.ph/7it02

Comments

  • AnnaAnna
    From where is the value being sucked? I wish the investment could be in conversion to alternative energy sources rather than consumption of even more non-renewable (and dirty) natural resources. Can politics and tax policies, ala government, replace value and constructive innovation? (Admittedly, it could be I am just too narrow to see the big picture.) Gimme some value that I can see.
  • yogibearbullyogibearbull
    From X/Twitter LINK

    image
  • JD_co
    Warren Buffett: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."

    The bears had been beaten down and have now totally disappeared.
  • a2z
    edited December 29
    i dont see an overwhelming amount of factors against the typical jan effect.
    but it may not last the entire q1 2026.

    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/65194/jan-effect-2026#latest

    i suspect today's broad dumping of precious metals is a play to capture 2026 equity gains.
  • DrVenture
    edited December 29
    @rforno
    Excellent thread. I have no real opinion, per se. I can see arguments that this can go on longer than is rational. And arguments that it is a reasonable proposition. And arguments that valuations matter. And/or that a "backfill scenario" can happen while tech simply remains rather static.

    I would add that 9% return, with +/- a couple percent, may be equivalent to a good MS bond fund in 2026. As a possible counterpoint to a more risky approach.
  • DrVenture
    edited December 29
    a2z said:

    i dont see an overwhelming amount of factors against the typical jan effect.
    but it may not last the entire q1 2026.

    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/65194/jan-effect-2026#latest

    i suspect today's broad dumping of precious metals is a play to capture 2026 equity gains.

    Interesting.

    I am prepared to go in several directions. A portfolio with lots of cash. A strong FI component. A value shift in 2025. Plenty of legacy tech. I feel pretty comfortable watching how things evolve.

    My YTD return @ 62% equity is ~16.5%. Standing pat for now. Official retirement in 6 months and counting.

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