SENTIMENT & MARKET INDICATORS, 11/19/25
AAII Bull-Bear Spread -11.0% (below average)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 11 (extreme fear)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 34.41% (negative)
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 36.40% (negative)
These are contrarian indicators.
INVESTOR CONCERNS: Budget, debt, tariffs, inflation, jobs, Fed, dollar, recession, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (194+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (67+27 weeks; fragile peace).
For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks down, bonds down, oil up, gold down, dollar up.
It will take time to fully restart US Government. Losses for hourly federal workers are permanent. Late gov reports: jobs, Nov 20 (today); PPI, Nov 25. There are more exceptions to tariffs on food items & more trade deals are coming.
#AAII #CNN #Sentiment
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2308/thread
Comments
Always appreciate the contribution. Particularly so concise.
Um....the markets are in a bipolar state, tending toward nonsense. Stunning shift in attitude today.
My sense is many markets have been expensive (the nice term for overvalued) for many years (and still are). Depending on one’s time horizon it may or may not be appropriate to own various assets. But to attribute everything to a single individual or party? No. Neither Democrats nor Republicans have control of the economy. Why pretend one party does? Herbert Hoover did not cause the Great Depression and Franklin Roosevelt did not end it (but ramping up for war in Europe had a lot to do with ending it.) Economies have a mind of their own.
End of rant.
Republican policies around ACA, EPA, TCJA, tariffs, control of Federal Reserve do affect consumer and market behavior.
Elections have consequences that last a lot longer than a 4 year Presidential term -- life appointments of judges, long tenured Fed Governors, etc..
The resilient US consumer has been willing to spend for so long. But now the job market has seized up and policies (i.e. tariffs) may be hurting the economy instead of helping. Bringing back manufacturing jobs was never going to be a difference maker. Add furloughed and terminated govt workers to the mix and continued inflation.
Agreed, there are consequences to these actions. Average people are feeling some economic pain. Perception is everything - do the majority of Americans believe in the current administration's ability to navigate these waters?
A very pragmatic rant, if indeed it was a rant.
Even though I detest the orange buffoon and his unqualified knee-scraping appointees, I agree there is no obvious connection between his corrupt/inane actions and the current market (just like Biden's senility had nothing to do with the market's exuberance during 2023/2024), but I don't agree that his administration hasn't affected the economy. DOGE? Tariffs? The Big Stupid Bill (otherwise known as Project 2025)? ACA dismissal?
We are due for a significant correction regarding this "expensive" market, but there is too much extraneous bullshit and insider shenanigans within this unchecked executive branch to ignore how it may affect future market/economy confidence. I'm sure to get some grumbles for this, but egotistical billionaires shouldn't be involved in any government oversight, imho. Thanks for the nonsense, voters!
(I must admit that last weekend's 60 Minutes episode on obvious gov corruption within this admin really pissed me off. There's a new impeachable offense every damn week)
between consumer sentiment and market performance.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BkjeXuSf6D4
Every time I read the business page I see articles about how owners/managers in various lines of business are adjusting their plans due to the singular actions of one particular person. But investors are supposed to ignore that information because it's only politics, when it obviously is not politics but a number of exogenous economic events still working their way through the economy? One might as well go down to the beach and argue with the tide.
How about the always entertaining Quote Investigator on Keynes, and what to do when facts change: To be "fair," neither political party previously showed much interest in voting for tariffs since the Smoot-Hawley disaster for the R's and The Tariff of Abominations for the D's.
AAII Sentiment is survey based (and so is the UM sentiment - not included here), but other indicators are measurement based and that is concerning.
How to use this information depends on the readers. It has been tracked here and elsewhere for years - every Thursday morning like clockwork!
Personally, I don't sell when sentiments and indicators are very negative. I don't time and always have market exposure suitable for my comfortable sleep level.
As a corollary, I won't buy when sentiments and indicators are very positive.
Should one buy here? There seem selected opportunities - lots of stuff is lagging in this narrowly led market. But beware that the lagging stuff would also be hit hard in any market selloff.
Recent purchases of equity funds in the IRA aren't much more than bookmarks. Some of the deck chairs in the taxable have been rearranged, but no new money is involved.
All true.
I’m leary of markets overall (especially high-flying tech). Continue to hold small 1X shorts on the S&P and Dow which dampens daily volatility. Shorting the QQQ would be too risky IMHO. I think there’s opportunity in some of the really beaten up stuff in the mid or small cap area, left behind by the momentum chasers. Own small slices of 12 such stocks. Most were down 30-50% over the past year when I bought. They’ve dipped and then gotten back above break-even in the few weeks since picking up most. You really need to close your eyes if holding this stuff - and spread the risk around. Also, buy in over time, not all at once.
I agree that even "defensive" equity positions are likely to get hit. Perhaps, not as bad as the high flyers. Best to be cautious, and wait for better entry points.
I am unloading my smallish foreign equity position today. It seems like a good starting point to raise a little more dry powder. I am also thinking about locking in gains in my tech funds (Roth/TIRA). Maybe my growth funds, next.
Should I be worried that funds I own, which are up 117% since jan 1, 2023, might go up a little more? Nah. The thought of buying them back at steep discounts is a bit thrilling though.
Unless it miraculously works out.
Gobble gobble.