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Sentiment & market Indicators

yogibearbullyogibearbull
in Other Investing
SENTIMENT & MARKET INDICATORS, 11/19/25
AAII Bull-Bear Spread -11.0% (below average)
CNN Fear & Greed Index 11 (extreme fear)
NYSE %Above 50-dMA 34.41% (negative)
SP500 %Above 50-dMA 36.40% (negative)
These are contrarian indicators.

INVESTOR CONCERNS: Budget, debt, tariffs, inflation, jobs, Fed, dollar, recession, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (194+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (67+27 weeks; fragile peace).
For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks down, bonds down, oil up, gold down, dollar up.

It will take time to fully restart US Government. Losses for hourly federal workers are permanent. Late gov reports: jobs, Nov 20 (today); PPI, Nov 25. There are more exceptions to tariffs on food items & more trade deals are coming.
#AAII #CNN #Sentiment
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2308/thread

Comments

  • DrVenture
    @yogibearbull

    Always appreciate the contribution. Particularly so concise.
  • stayCalm
    VIX has crept up to 25!
  • hank
    stayCalm said:

    VIX has crept up to 25!

    Nice. I have a bit in TAIL. Up 1% at the moment. Wow. Did the markets turn on a dime today. We’ll see if it lasts.
  • DrVenture
    edited 12:43PM
    My assumption is that a whole lot of folks saw the opportunity to exit positions. I was considering lightning up on equities.
  • peak2climb
    @hank: Wow. Did the markets turn on a dime today. We’ll see if it lasts.

    Um....the markets are in a bipolar state, tending toward nonsense. Stunning shift in attitude today.
  • hank
    edited 7:43PM
    peak2climb said:

    @hank: Wow. Did the markets turn on a dime today. We’ll see if it lasts.

    Um....the markets are in a bipolar state, tending toward nonsense. Stunning shift in attitude today.

    Agree. And I think it’s overly-simplistic and non-productive as an investor to attribute market behavior to any single individual whether you love or loath him. Honestly, is this how people invest today? Based on their view of the political leadership?

    My sense is many markets have been expensive (the nice term for overvalued) for many years (and still are). Depending on one’s time horizon it may or may not be appropriate to own various assets. But to attribute everything to a single individual or party? No. Neither Democrats nor Republicans have control of the economy. Why pretend one party does? Herbert Hoover did not cause the Great Depression and Franklin Roosevelt did not end it (but ramping up for war in Europe had a lot to do with ending it.) Economies have a mind of their own.

    End of rant.
  • JunksterJunkster
    hank said:

    peak2climb said:

    @hank: Wow. Did the markets turn on a dime today. We’ll see if it lasts.

    Um....the markets are in a bipolar state, tending toward nonsense. Stunning shift in attitude today.

    Agree. And I think it’s overly-simplistic and non-productive as an investor to attribute market behavior to any single individual whether you love or loath him. Honestly, is this how people invest today? Based on their view of the political leadership?

    My sense is many markets have been expensive (the nice term for overvalued) for many years (and still are). Depending on one’s time horizon it may or may not be appropriate to own various assets. But to attribute everything to a single individual or party? No. Neither Democrats nor Republicans have control of the economy. Why pretend one party does? Herbert Hoover did not cause the Great Depression and Franklin Roosevelt did not end it (but ramping up for war in Europe had a lot to do with ending it.) Economies have a mind of their own.

    End of rant.
    Post of the year @Hank. Thanks for your cogent comments.
  • Old_JoeOld_Joe
    I Second that motion!
  • stayCalm
    edited 8:46PM
    One individual or party does not control the long arc but most certainly can influence the short arc. For example Democrat policies on solar, renewables, EV credits does influence consumer and market behavior.

    Republican policies around ACA, EPA, TCJA, tariffs, control of Federal Reserve do affect consumer and market behavior.

    Elections have consequences that last a lot longer than a 4 year Presidential term -- life appointments of judges, long tenured Fed Governors, etc..
  • JD_co
    stayCalm said:



    Elections have consequences that last a lot longer than a 4 year Presidential term -- life appointments of judges, long tenured Fed Governors, etc..

    Let's add to that the isolationist policy that is straining the United States' international trade partnerships. It will take time to rebuild these. I don't see how this can be ignored.

    The resilient US consumer has been willing to spend for so long. But now the job market has seized up and policies (i.e. tariffs) may be hurting the economy instead of helping. Bringing back manufacturing jobs was never going to be a difference maker. Add furloughed and terminated govt workers to the mix and continued inflation.

    Agreed, there are consequences to these actions. Average people are feeling some economic pain. Perception is everything - do the majority of Americans believe in the current administration's ability to navigate these waters?
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