Howdy folks,
This article is by a long time friend of mine that founded Liberty Coin Service here in Lansing. Please note he has always been a gold-bug. As for my take on the PM markets . . . back the truck up and fill it. Seriously, I can't see anything changing that has led to both gold and silver up over 50% YTD. Unlike the Big Bonanza that ran from 2002 to 2012, this time I'm not playing the individual junior silver miners but going with the ETFs in that space. Silver is STILL where the leverage is, more so than gold. The low I can remember on gold is in the $700-800 range and it's not hitting $4K. That's 5x. Silver, OTOH, has gone from under $4 to around $50 (twice) which is 10+x. Riding SILJ, SLVR, CEF, PSLV, SGDJ and as forever, some PRPFX. Getting clobbered on my short Tesla, but FEH, it's casino money. Have taken a stake in BKF - again for shits and giggles.
https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https://www.numismaticnews.net/ever-climbing-precious-metals-market?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAYnJpZBExQlRodGZ1N21TTXl3RXRNVwEetsiuvTesUl_c6RASyypHosQS_a4yTI6y6_VMWdDz1GrVYos6I4H-liMT76o_aem_Ub0IXFuiuZ24aPE4G_dU6g&h=AT0l_CTxFSxB2gIrKD_HsjNGwH_RiI_vJkw0lhtcFHs_2nxnj_nEdxcPghn9tvDXTO4EM4SoIu3Bv7hWU3TtcXL9TlrF2IgVZg5j_M9nnjyHomCF6PWXBfYyMNpYrrlZoQzHdyoYgA4PrAtD&__tn__=-UK-R&c[0]=AT2JSD-g0IYxcFjobt_xJMCVOnBLQFTjb5pa9Cb3-hf_5oZGUgAmJJ6OLJZUxKfNXhmIcTEvCyo4jXrhYvcRh77r5RTSEC665P-4Etlrn_zsJJAjT2JNddl71gHBjF_Wlgmd2rojgBgVcs-GuRgInr2fIgXLqj32yoZix1-OStpxw-_FNIBygReYly9DZIbW-tf0mxsqEr6gIlv_eTnv29BXLHoHope this article comes thru,
And so it goes,
Peace,
rono
Comments
The markets can allow these bubbles to expand for a lengthy time as "fundamentals are so passe".
Its a dangerous game at this point. Will you find a chair when the music stops?
Long time. You make a great point. For the vast majority, back up the truck is 5-10%. Not to mention being careful getting into an ongoing bull market. DCA would be most appropriate
That said, I honestly see this run lasting a long time and being a momentum investor, I've been scaling in for a while. At least since the election.
Stay safe,
Rono
I am interested in any asset class that might be a place to shift equity into. These daily "new highs" make me very uneasy. I am embracing bond oef for the first time in about 5 years. And bond cefs for a couple years now.
What else makes sense if dollar keeps declining and equities are getting toppy?
Edit to add: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/07/ray-dalio-says-today-is-like-the-early-1970s-and-investors-should-hold-more-gold-than-usual.html
-Ray Dalio, founder of one of the world’s largest hedge funds, believes investors should allocate as much as 15% of their portfolios to gold.
-The precious metal surged to an all-time high above $4,000 an ounce on Tuesday.
-Dalio said gold stands apart as a hedge in times of monetary debasement and geopolitical uncertainty
rono has always been a guiding light on MFO regarding the proper place for gold and silver, both the bullion itself and associated interests such as miners, in a portfolio.
He typically has exposure to both gold and silver, to about 10 or 15% if I recall correctly, and has frequently observed that when these are in an upward cycle (like now) as a percentage silver is likely to increase in value even more than gold.
Thanks for the clarification.
Nice interview with Don Durrett about miner stocks here:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4828131-gold-and-silver-mining-stocks-potential-winners
Pretty much in agreement with Ron Owens, Don Durrett concurs that silver miners have much greater profit potential than gold miners:
"Currently, I use $5,000 gold and $100 silver. And I actually think those are conservative right now. I think they both need to be pushed up a little bit."
THANK YOU, Rono -- for sharing your wisdom and perspective here. I'm glad to see you posting again.
its different this time, but again, not in any way that helps forecasts.
historically over centuries, gold does its best during huge econ and pol uncertainty which clobbers speculation, normal biz , and gov process.
we may eventually get the latter 2 in a big enough manner to spook sentiment, but speculation is booming on any asset regardless of how worthless (skeptics point to fartcoin and anything trump themed).
Thanks all, for the kind words. DavidF is correct that it's Ron Overton. Rono is a childhood nickname.
I don't post much any more but still follow the board. Sorry. Had to come out now because this really looks like a huge bull market in the metals and I had to share. I've been 'going to the mattresses' since the election. Moved quite a bit to overseas plays - not all, of course, but a bit. This is fundamental and not rocket science. The PMs is more a momentum investor and so easy to ride.
As for the PMs. This is my third bull run. I was finishing my degree in Econ in the late 70's when the Hunt Bros tried to corner the silver market. I financed my degree with GI bill and cashing in my silver hoard I had acquired at face value during the early part of the decade working in restaurants. Alas, I was unable to really ride it because I was poor and had no investments. When the 2nd happened in 2002, I was ready and prepared and played the snot out of it. It ran until 2011-12 but was simply marvelous.
This looks like another. I see none of the strategic or fundamental issues changing. As Junkster pointed out, they're devaluing the dollar as fast as they can, as it the world. Trump is still President. Etc. Etc. That said, I'm a momentum investor and scale into a trend. Learned that years ago on this board from Gary Smith. I've been scaling in and am continuing to do so. Do not fight the trend.
The last thing I really want to stress is that the leverage is still with silver. Always has been. 70's, gold went up 2-3x while silver increased 10-12x. Same thing happened in the 2nd Bull. It's happening again.
And so it goes,
peace,
rono
OJ
GLD https://i.ibb.co/Xx56rdSC/MFOP-FLOW-GLD-100825.png
GDX https://i.ibb.co/DHT5BckY/MFOP-FLOW-GDX-100825.png
Chill. At times even I can't remember my name.
And so it goes,
Peace,
Rono
GLD and GDX are different animals. GLD is physical gold and GDX is gold miners. Different market s.
Rono
Edit. For the bulls. The S@P for only the 6th time since 1950 is up 35%+ in six months. The previous five times the market was always higher one year later with an average of 13,4%. Source - Carson Research
Chart I am using for the dollar
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=d
Trimmed bank loan and tech last month and waiting patiently for better opportunities.
The dollar has exhibited some strength but there is more at play with regard to the makeup of reserves of the central banks around the world. This has been something that is different this time. The dollar has been the world's reserve currency for decades but the first crack in the armor was when Russia invaded Ukraine and the US froze some of their assets that were in dollars. The rest of the world said, "WTF!?!" and started looking at ways to reduce their greenback reserves, on the margin, relative to other assets. Note, there has never been a threat of a massive selloff of dollar reserves as it would crash the price and no one wants that. Also, there are a LOT of asset choices to choose from (e.g. other currencies, crypto, and gold).
https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2025-10-09/brazil-buys-16-tonnes-gold-september-central-bank-demand-stays-strong
and so it goes,
peace,
rono
surprise! retail meme-thusiasm (us) is driving gold prices.
jpm macro :
"...almost the entire increase in the gold share of reserves since 2009 is a function of the rising market price of gold itself. ... keep gold prices flat at 2009 levels and use actual central bank gold holdings, the gold share of reserves actually falls to 8%. ...central bank gold allocations do not appear to be a big part of the reason why, nor are they clear verdicts on the US$ as reserve currency..."
addressing_the_gold_price_from_an_iranchina_barter_angle
Gold's price (up and down) moves like a wave impacting other commodities and their pricing. The linked article suggests that we are in for higher oil prices to come as a result of Gold's upward price move.
learning_center/weekly_chart/inflection_point_for_crude_oil/?
Lot of that rise is indeed attributed to a dramatic increase in the price of gold.
But since 2022, central banks have been adding gold at about 1,000 tonnes/yr and the the total global gold holdings are around 36,000 tonnes. That +2.8% annual increase in gold tonnes by central banks cannot be overlooked either. Much of that increase is from central banks in Asia and EMs, not by developed countries or IMF.
In trading, it's the incremental demand that drives prices.
Another trend is that many countries are taking their gold home vs lot of gold they previously held in US and UK vaults. Moving large amounts of gold isn't easy as there are logistics and security challenges. Specific gravity of gold is 19.32, so it's 19.32x heavier than water.
BTW, 2009 was a low point for gold in terms of both prices and the amount of gold held by central banks. Things are much different now.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/golds-rise-central-bank-reserves-appears-unstoppable-2025-09-04/
The more subdued gold etf (GLD) is up 56.4% YTD, and has risen 51% over 1 year and 35% over 3 years.
I can’t think of any other asset class (ie equities, energy, real estate) in my lifetime that held those types of short term gains without a significant correction somewhere down the road. Color me skeptical.
Then again - maybe Haggard explained gold’s workings in his Rainbow Stew classic.
* Figures from M* and do not include today’s gains.
by weight, gold fx reserves is same as ~1990, with minimum hit in in ~2010. the dip is very symmetric.