Are PM prices near their peak?

Comments

• Junkster

  October 7 edited October 7

  This year the story has been the decline of the dollar. It has juiced emerging market equities and debt (among many others) which many of us here have profitably and continue to embrace, But when I read phases like “ back up the truck and fill it” it is a bit worrisome - even more so after such price appreciation. I would take investment advice on any asset class from an avowed perennial bull or for that matter an avowed perennial bear with a grain of salt, When I see the likes of Mike Wilson pounding the table for gold it gets even more worrisome. Time will tell if we are at or near a top but in trading/investing over confidence can kill - unless of course we are talking about bitcoin. That has been a phenomenon that has completely left me in the dust.
• JD_co

  October 7

  In this environment, I like my PRPFX. But adding to it here is tough. PM and equities are in bubble territory.
  
  The markets can allow these bubbles to expand for a lengthy time as "fundamentals are so passe".
  
  Its a dangerous game at this point. Will you find a chair when the music stops?
  
  
  
• rono

  October 7

  Howdy junkster,
  
  Long time. You make a great point. For the vast majority, back up the truck is 5-10%. Not to mention being careful getting into an ongoing bull market. DCA would be most appropriate
  
  That said, I honestly see this run lasting a long time and being a momentum investor, I've been scaling in for a while. At least since the election.
  
  Stay safe,
  
  Rono
• Junkster

  October 7 edited October 7

  rono said:

  Howdy junkster,
  
  Long time. You make a great point. For the vast majority, back up the truck is 5-10%. Not to mention being careful getting into an ongoing bull market. DCA would be most appropriate
  
  That said, I honestly see this run lasting a long time and being a momentum investor, I've been scaling in for a while. At least since the election.
  
  Stay safe,
  
  Rono

  Thanks Ron, I understand where you are coming from. Personally, I think the dollar decline is still in the early innings so that should bode well for gold and the other assets that do well with a declining dollar. But I could be dead wrong and I am a worrier on any and all of my positions. I am always reminded of that saying ( by General Patton I think) that when everyone is thinking alike, someone isn’t thinking. That is most apropos on investment boards where everyone seeks out uniformity and confirmation from the crowd on their holdings.
  
  
  
• DrVenture

  October 7 edited October 7

  Love to hear more thoughts on this topic from others. I own no PM (or bitcoin), but the temptation is always present. Still, big run ups and high valuations spook me more than anything else.
  
  I am interested in any asset class that might be a place to shift equity into. These daily "new highs" make me very uneasy. I am embracing bond oef for the first time in about 5 years. And bond cefs for a couple years now.
  
  What else makes sense if dollar keeps declining and equities are getting toppy?
  
  Edit to add: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/07/ray-dalio-says-today-is-like-the-early-1970s-and-investors-should-hold-more-gold-than-usual.html
  
  -Ray Dalio, founder of one of the world’s largest hedge funds, believes investors should allocate as much as 15% of their portfolios to gold.
  
  -The precious metal surged to an all-time high above $4,000 an ounce on Tuesday.
  
  -Dalio said gold stands apart as a hedge in times of monetary debasement and geopolitical uncertainty
• Old_Joe

  October 7

  @DrVenture- you may not be familiar with Ron Owens ("rono") who started this post. He is one of MFO's very earliest members, and in earlier years posted quite frequently.
  
  rono has always been a guiding light on MFO regarding the proper place for gold and silver, both the bullion itself and associated interests such as miners, in a portfolio.
  
  He typically has exposure to both gold and silver, to about 10 or 15% if I recall correctly, and has frequently observed that when these are in an upward cycle (like now) as a percentage silver is likely to increase in value even more than gold.
  
• DrVenture

  October 7

  @Old_Joe
  
  Thanks for the clarification.
• syzygy

  October 7

  Thanks Ron Owens for the PM market update. You are a valuable resource.
  
  Nice interview with Don Durrett about miner stocks here:
  https://seekingalpha.com/article/4828131-gold-and-silver-mining-stocks-potential-winners
  
  Pretty much in agreement with Ron Owens, Don Durrett concurs that silver miners have much greater profit potential than gold miners:
  "Currently, I use $5,000 gold and $100 silver. And I actually think those are conservative right now. I think they both need to be pushed up a little bit."
  
  
• VirtueRunsDeep

  October 7

  The first time I invested in gold and silver (CEF, IAU, and SIVR -- all in my retirement portfolios) was because I followed Rono on this Board. I've stuck with those investments for 15+years and I'm glad I did.
  
  THANK YOU, Rono -- for sharing your wisdom and perspective here. I'm glad to see you posting again.
• DavidF

  8:17AM

  I believe rono is Ron Overton.
• a2z

  10:28AM

  
  its different this time, but again, not in any way that helps forecasts.
  historically over centuries, gold does its best during huge econ and pol uncertainty which clobbers speculation, normal biz , and gov process.
  we may eventually get the latter 2 in a big enough manner to spook sentiment, but speculation is booming on any asset regardless of how worthless (skeptics point to fartcoin and anything trump themed).
• rono

  11:19AM

  Howdy folks,
  
  Thanks all, for the kind words. DavidF is correct that it's Ron Overton. Rono is a childhood nickname.
  
  I don't post much any more but still follow the board. Sorry. Had to come out now because this really looks like a huge bull market in the metals and I had to share. I've been 'going to the mattresses' since the election. Moved quite a bit to overseas plays - not all, of course, but a bit. This is fundamental and not rocket science. The PMs is more a momentum investor and so easy to ride.
  
  As for the PMs. This is my third bull run. I was finishing my degree in Econ in the late 70's when the Hunt Bros tried to corner the silver market. I financed my degree with GI bill and cashing in my silver hoard I had acquired at face value during the early part of the decade working in restaurants. Alas, I was unable to really ride it because I was poor and had no investments. When the 2nd happened in 2002, I was ready and prepared and played the snot out of it. It ran until 2011-12 but was simply marvelous.
  
  This looks like another. I see none of the strategic or fundamental issues changing. As Junkster pointed out, they're devaluing the dollar as fast as they can, as it the world. Trump is still President. Etc. Etc. That said, I'm a momentum investor and scale into a trend. Learned that years ago on this board from Gary Smith. I've been scaling in and am continuing to do so. Do not fight the trend.
  
  The last thing I really want to stress is that the leverage is still with silver. Always has been. 70's, gold went up 2-3x while silver increased 10-12x. Same thing happened in the 2nd Bull. It's happening again.
  
  And so it goes,
  
  peace,
  
  rono
• Mark

  11:27AM

  Precisely and thank you!
• Old_Joe

  1:00PM

  @rono- V. sorry about the poor recall on your name.
  OJ
• yogibearbull

  1:10PM

  Looking at flows via MFOP, GLD has had some INFLOWS, but GDX has OUTFLOWS. So, not many have boarded the gold train. It may be looked at as a positive (more people may finally join) or a negative (rally is on borrowed time).
  GLD https://i.ibb.co/Xx56rdSC/MFOP-FLOW-GLD-100825.png
  GDX https://i.ibb.co/DHT5BckY/MFOP-FLOW-GDX-100825.png
• rono

  3:52PM

  Howdy Dan,
  
  Chill. At times even I can't remember my name.
  
  And so it goes,
  
  Peace,
  
  Rono
• rono

  3:56PM

  Howdy yogi,
  
  GLD and GDX are different animals. GLD is physical gold and GDX is gold miners. Different market s.
  
  Rono